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> Why everyone in the US is betting that the stock market will always go on average up? Shouldn't it? I'm not an economist but if you think about it: as we bec
by wraptile 6y ago
> Why everyone in the US is betting that the stock market will always go on average up?
Shouldn't it? I'm not an economist but if you think about it: as we become more advanced we create more resources with less work. Stock market would be just one of many way to distrubute that extra efficiency to the society.
Unless there's a crisis we should never produce less resources with more work.
Of course this is much more complicated than I make it out to be but my point is that it's relatively safe to assume that stock market should go up on average long term.
- whatever1 6y agoIf your 401k was in the average European stock market since the 2000, today you would have the same money minus the inflation. The GDP of Europe has increased the last 20 years, yet the stock market did not.
- occamrazor 6y agoWhich index? The DAX is above 12000 now and never exceeded 8000 around 2000. And this does not even include dividends.
- whatever1 6y agoCheck the stoxx 50 index to get an average view of the european industry. It has been flat for decades. If you go to particular countries the image is much much worse. For example if you had your money in the Italian stock market since 2000, by now you would have less than half (inflation not accounted).
- catern 6y agoThat's really interesting. I wasn't aware of this. Thanks for sharing this. Stock indices ideally approximate taking a share of "the whole economy". What's your explanation for why this (seems to) not work in Europe?
- whatever1 6y agoProbably because we give all of our money to our govs to manage, so no free cash for us to play in the "predict the most profitable company" casino.
- legulere 6y agoStock markets and indices even more only list big companies, which are often very inefficient and only earn money through market capture.