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The average age of a vehicle in California is ~12.5 years. So if they stopped selling ICE cars, within 5 years there would be 25% fewer cars on the road... At

The average age of a vehicle in California is ~12.5 years. So if they stopped selling ICE cars, within 5 years there would be 25% fewer cars on the road... At that point, the profitability of owning a gas station would go way down and people would start finding better uses for the land. Within 10 years, gas stations would be driven out of bigger cities. Now people get "range anxiety" thinking about buying EVs, but people can charge an EV cars at home. When gas stations get harder to find, the biggest advantage of owning an ICE car vanishes. If (and it's a big if), you can't sell new ICE cars, they will be uncommon 10 years later. After 25 years (your 2060 number) it will be difficult to do a road trip without careful planning around for gas stops.

refurb 6y ago
Median age of cars in the US is ~12 years, but has trended up since 1970 when it was ~6 years, which I assume is due to more reliable and durable vehicles.[1] 25% of cars are 16+ years old.[2] So by 2051, you'd expect 25% of cars to still be on the road. For light trucks, the average age was 19 years old.[2] [1]https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/21/average-age-of-cars-trucks-vehicles-by-household-income-vehicle-type/ https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/21/average-age-of-cars-trucks... [2]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-at-least-sixteen-years-old----record-high.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-...
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  How much quicker are those cars going to get retired out quicker when resale prices start dropping and gas prices start increasing so gas stations can stay profitable? There is a whole economy around keeping ICE vehicles on the road. Without a constant supply of new ICE cars that economy gets trashed.
  - refurb 6y ago
    SF is a wealthy city, but drive around some of the low income neighborhoods and look at the cars. They are 15+ years old and will be driven until they no longer work. These folks can't afford a new ICE car, let alone a new EV car (they don't have garage to charge anyways). These folks will be buying the used ICE cars in 2035 and driving them for another 15 years. There will be a big enough market for ICE cars and gasoline for a while. No doubt we'll see ICE cars disappear, but I just don't think it will happen that quickly.
    - ogre_codes 6y ago
      You are completely talking around my point. Gas stations are already on decline in SF as more profitable businesses (and housing) find better uses for the land. If there are even 10% fewer gasoline cars cars on the road, that puts a huge dent in profitability those stations. People may want gasoline cars, but owning one is going to be a hassle, particularly in places where real estate is at a premium. > These folks can't afford a new ICE car, let alone a new EV car (they don't have garage to charge anyways). The cost of EVs is coming down fast and will continue to decline. The cost of used EVs will also come down quickly, particularly since right now newer models are quite a bit better than EVs just a few years old. > No doubt we'll see ICE cars disappear, but I just don't think it will happen that quickly. "Quickly"? There is nothing quick about it. We're talking about 25 years in the future as opposed to 50 years in the future. It's just your idea of cars driving around for a 15 years with no gas stations and increasingly hard to find mechanics that I question.

refurb 6y ago

Median age of cars in the US is ~12 years, but has trended up since 1970 when it was ~6 years, which I assume is due to more reliable and durable vehicles.[1] 25% of cars are 16+ years old.[2] So by 2051, you'd expect 25% of cars to still be on the road. For light trucks, the average age was 19 years old.[2] [1]https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/21/average-age-of-cars-trucks-vehicles-by-household-income-vehicle-type/ https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/21/average-age-of-cars-trucks... [2]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-at-least-sixteen-years-old----record-high.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-...

ogre_codes 6y ago
How much quicker are those cars going to get retired out quicker when resale prices start dropping and gas prices start increasing so gas stations can stay profitable? There is a whole economy around keeping ICE vehicles on the road. Without a constant supply of new ICE cars that economy gets trashed.
- refurb 6y ago
  SF is a wealthy city, but drive around some of the low income neighborhoods and look at the cars. They are 15+ years old and will be driven until they no longer work. These folks can't afford a new ICE car, let alone a new EV car (they don't have garage to charge anyways). These folks will be buying the used ICE cars in 2035 and driving them for another 15 years. There will be a big enough market for ICE cars and gasoline for a while. No doubt we'll see ICE cars disappear, but I just don't think it will happen that quickly.
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    You are completely talking around my point. Gas stations are already on decline in SF as more profitable businesses (and housing) find better uses for the land. If there are even 10% fewer gasoline cars cars on the road, that puts a huge dent in profitability those stations. People may want gasoline cars, but owning one is going to be a hassle, particularly in places where real estate is at a premium. > These folks can't afford a new ICE car, let alone a new EV car (they don't have garage to charge anyways). The cost of EVs is coming down fast and will continue to decline. The cost of used EVs will also come down quickly, particularly since right now newer models are quite a bit better than EVs just a few years old. > No doubt we'll see ICE cars disappear, but I just don't think it will happen that quickly. "Quickly"? There is nothing quick about it. We're talking about 25 years in the future as opposed to 50 years in the future. It's just your idea of cars driving around for a 15 years with no gas stations and increasingly hard to find mechanics that I question.