2 ms·

I also think the Mirai is a dead end, but here are some things that might interest you: * The energy density (kWh/kg) of the Mirai fuel cell system (stack, tan

I also think the Mirai is a dead end, but here are some things that might interest you: * The energy density (kWh/kg) of the Mirai fuel cell system (stack, tank, etc) is probably 2x or more than its battery. Replacing it with a battery would probably cut range substantially. * New car ramp-ups are weirder than I would've guessed, even when they're not pioneering a new fuel source and infrastructure. Eg the Prius took 8 years to break 50k sales per year, and it was a money-losing or breakeven proposition throughout that entire period. Later, of course, it became a breakout success story. [1] * If fuel cells eventually matter (eg for heavy-duty applications), the Mirai could fail as a vehicle while succeeding as an R&D testbed. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius

WorldMaker 6y ago
> The energy density (kWh/kg) of the Mirai fuel cell system (stack, tank, etc) is probably 2x or more than its battery. Replacing it with a battery would probably cut range substantially. I'm not sure how much that matters practically, however. The Toyota Mirai has an EPA estimated range of 312 miles and a base Tesla Model 3 is only a few miles shorter at 299 EPA estimated miles. They appear to be about the same size, though admittedly the Model 3 weighs 20X as much, if quickly searched numbers are correct. Consumers likely don't care about the weight difference other than how it impacts handling (and no one is complaining about the Model 3's handling) and indirectly felt impacts on road maintenance costs (and no one is paying attention to that at all, at least not right now in SUV/light truck-loving America). (ETA: And it doesn't look like the weight scales the way that the size does in a comparable way to battery weight, density aside, and that Toyota can't just double/triple the tank size and blow EVs out of the water range-wise weight for weight or they would have already done so.) > If fuel cells eventually matter (eg for heavy-duty applications), the Mirai could fail as a vehicle while succeeding as an R&D testbed. That almost sounds like a valid reason for the Mirai to continue to exist. Certainly if you are a heavy-duty industrial user of Hydrogen such as a mining company using Hydrogen to replace diesel mining equipment, it might makes sense to have your support fleet of vehicles in/around your mines also capable of using the same Hydrogen infrastructure. That's looking likely to be a small corporate niche at best, so I'm still not sure that it makes sense in 2020 for Toyota to sell the Mirai as a consumer vehicle, but yes maybe calling it a gloom and doom for Toyota to be doing so is a bit strong.
- ggreer 6y ago
  The curb weight of the Toyota Mirai is 4,075lbs. The Model 3 is 3,552-4,100lbs depending on the configuration. As you noted, range is similar. What's very different is performance. The Mirai goes from 0-60mph in 9 seconds. The slowest Model 3 does it in 5.6 seconds. The fastest Model 3 gets to 60mph in 3.2 seconds. The Toyota's acceleration is limited by the power output of the fuel cell. Its maximum output is 114kW or 153hp. The Tesla's battery can output over 350kW, allowing it to drive much more powerful motors.

WorldMaker 6y ago

> The energy density (kWh/kg) of the Mirai fuel cell system (stack, tank, etc) is probably 2x or more than its battery. Replacing it with a battery would probably cut range substantially. I'm not sure how much that matters practically, however. The Toyota Mirai has an EPA estimated range of 312 miles and a base Tesla Model 3 is only a few miles shorter at 299 EPA estimated miles. They appear to be about the same size, though admittedly the Model 3 weighs 20X as much, if quickly searched numbers are correct. Consumers likely don't care about the weight difference other than how it impacts handling (and no one is complaining about the Model 3's handling) and indirectly felt impacts on road maintenance costs (and no one is paying attention to that at all, at least not right now in SUV/light truck-loving America). (ETA: And it doesn't look like the weight scales the way that the size does in a comparable way to battery weight, density aside, and that Toyota can't just double/triple the tank size and blow EVs out of the water range-wise weight for weight or they would have already done so.) > If fuel cells eventually matter (eg for heavy-duty applications), the Mirai could fail as a vehicle while succeeding as an R&D testbed. That almost sounds like a valid reason for the Mirai to continue to exist. Certainly if you are a heavy-duty industrial user of Hydrogen such as a mining company using Hydrogen to replace diesel mining equipment, it might makes sense to have your support fleet of vehicles in/around your mines also capable of using the same Hydrogen infrastructure. That's looking likely to be a small corporate niche at best, so I'm still not sure that it makes sense in 2020 for Toyota to sell the Mirai as a consumer vehicle, but yes maybe calling it a gloom and doom for Toyota to be doing so is a bit strong.

ggreer 6y ago
The curb weight of the Toyota Mirai is 4,075lbs. The Model 3 is 3,552-4,100lbs depending on the configuration. As you noted, range is similar. What's very different is performance. The Mirai goes from 0-60mph in 9 seconds. The slowest Model 3 does it in 5.6 seconds. The fastest Model 3 gets to 60mph in 3.2 seconds. The Toyota's acceleration is limited by the power output of the fuel cell. Its maximum output is 114kW or 153hp. The Tesla's battery can output over 350kW, allowing it to drive much more powerful motors.