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I like it conceptually, but isn't there missing technology still? Batteries have improved mildly, but energy to weight ratio (and energy to cost) remain problem
by Someone1234 6y ago
I like it conceptually, but isn't there missing technology still? Batteries have improved mildly, but energy to weight ratio (and energy to cost) remain problematic.
If we witnessed a jump in battery technology, we may not even need to wait for 2035 for the market to do this for us. But in the meantime we're still seeing electric cars that cost at minimum 10K more than their gas counterparts (with the low cost of oil/gas right now only making that look worse).
I'd love to own a Tesla Model 3 for example, but realistically it is a $37K car that competes with $25K gas vehicles or $27K Hybrids. When is THAT going to change? When is electric going to be affordable for the average person?
The $7.5K federal tax incentives also disappeared (and we never had state incentives here).
- gnicholas 6y agoIIRC, the federal tax incentives phase out per manufacturer, based on the number of qualifying vehicles sold. So buyers of VW's newly-announced ID.4 will be able to claim the full credit, but buyers of Tesla's Model Y won't.
- Someone1234 6y agoThe ID.4 starts $40K base without destination charges or local taxes. Even with the $7.5K federal tax credit that's an incredibly expensive compact SUV (you can get full SUVs for $5K less, let alone compact SUVs).
- gnicholas 6y agoThey're reportedly targeting $35k minus the tax credit. Don't have the link but I read this in a publication this AM.
- Someone1234 6y agoMultiple publications are describing it as $40K base: https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/23/21444141/volkswagen-vw-id4-electric-suv-price-range-specs https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/23/21444141/volkswagen-vw-id... https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34114103/2021-vw-id4-revealed/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34114103/2021-vw-id4-reve... https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/volkswagens-new-id-4-electric-car-how-far-how-much-and-when/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/09/volkswagens-new-id-4-el...
- gnicholas 6y agoFound it: > Volkswagen also says it will offer a $35,000 version of the ID.4 when production moves to Tennessee. from https://www.jdpower.com/cars/new-car-previews/2021-volkswagen-id-4-preview?make=Volkswagen&model=ID-4 https://www.jdpower.com/cars/new-car-previews/2021-volkswage... Also reported at https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/2021-volkswagen-id4-preview https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/2021-volkswagen-id4-previ...
- kenhwang 6y agoConsidering the average transaction price of a new car is $39k now, $35k is right in line with what the market can bear.
- RhysU 6y agoThat's the average new car that people can buy. I assure you there would be demand below that number.
- kenhwang 6y agoI doubt it with multiple large manufacturers discontinuing cheaper cars and continuing to push up market. If there was a market for cheaper cars, there wasn't enough demand to be sustainable. Lightly used cars have become far better value than new cheap cars.
- jliptzin 6y agoDid you see what Tesla announced at their battery conference yesterday?
- Someone1234 6y agoNo. Did they announce a cost reduction in their vehicles?
- Gibbon1 6y agoI think they threw out a guesstimate being able to sell a low end model for around $25k three years from now.
- QuixoticQuibit 6y agoMusk said the same thing years ago. He’s a chronic liar and/or an over-promising, under-delivering salesman.
- jliptzin 6y agoReally? The model 3 is an excellent vehicle that everyone dismissed and said would never come to fruition
- dublin 6y agoThe quality surveys and several owners I know would beg to differ. Tesla has had, and continues to have, horrendous quality issues. Don't get me wrong, Tesla does do some things well, and they're certainly not afraid to innovate, but they're anything but "excellent vehicles". I don't know a single Model S owner that hasn't had the door handles fail. It's a $900 repair, unless you haggle with them for weeks ant threaten to sue them, at which point they'll agree to pay for it, because Tesla knows they don't work. Oh, and a tire/wheel budget of $3000+ a year is pretty excessive, too. (On Teslas, both are notoriously unable to withstand potholes and dips that even other cars with low-profile tires can just drive over. All that battery weight is a really bad combo with low-profile tires and thin-cast wheels.)
- bryanlarsen 6y agoYou have to compare TCO. According to https://ev.pge.com/vehicles/Tesla_Model_3_Standard_Range_Plus_BEV_2020 https://ev.pge.com/vehicles/Tesla_Model_3_Standard_Range_Plu..., a model 3 is $1700 cheaper than a Toyota Camry Hybrid over 5 years.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- thatfrenchguy 6y agoMeh, the maintenance costs on the PGE website are highly overrated. It also assumes your insurance costs for a Tesla are going to be the same, and they aren't. You also don't get a Tesla for 27000 net of incentives, unless you make so little money that it doesn't make sense.
- bryanlarsen 6y agoThat $27K is saying that you can buy it for $37K and sell it for $10K 5 years later. That's super conservative, you should be able to get at least 40%. You can click on the "include vehicle resale" box to remove the resale factor.
- asdfadsfgfdda 6y agoThe fact that PG&E is clearly advocating for electric cars should give everyone pause. Gasoline cars can be filled by gas from any company, so there's actual competition. But an electric car mandate will expand PG&E's monopoly by billions of dollars per year. Imagine how poorly they will behave when they have a lock on both electricity and transportation.
- llukas 6y agoYou can put solar panels on most of the roofs.
- zbrozek 6y agoPG&E and the CPUC need significant attention to come to serve the people. CA pays some of the highest rates in the nation but gets some of the shoddiest infrastructure in return. Check out slide 28 in [1] and read the entirety of [0]. [0] https://www.buttecounty.net/Portals/30/CFReport/PGE-THE-CAMP-FIRE-PUBLIC-REPORT.pdf?ver=2020-06-15-190515-977 https://www.buttecounty.net/Portals/30/CFReport/PGE-THE-CAMP... [1] https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/uploadedFiles/CPUCWebsite/Content/News_Room/NewsUpdates/2019/Cal%20Advocates%20Rate%20Trend%20Presentation%20-%20April%2024th%202019.pdf https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/uploadedFiles/CPUCWebsite/Content/Ne...
- acchow 6y agoTesla announced yesterday they intend to have a $25k electric vehicle in 3 years.
- qppo 6y agoSounds like we'll have a $30k car in 6 years
- sadfev 6y agoThat’s not bad all things considered
- dublin 6y agoYeah, I'm sure that'll work out just like the Model 3 for $35,000... There was one strippo version of the Model 3 available (as special-order-only to severely limit the number sold) for what, maybe three or four months?
- mbgerring 6y agoPart of the reasoning for this move is to create an incentive for battery researchers and manufacturers to serve the massive California auto market by or before 2035.
- yodsanklai 6y ago> When is electric going to be affordable for the average person? Maybe never... A lot of today's technology runs on fossil fuel. It may very well be the case that our standard of living will decrease as we won't find comparable source of energy.
- shaftway 6y ago> When is electric going to be affordable for the average person? The average price of a car bought in May of 2019 was $36,718. A Model 3 is $37,990. Given the offsets in maintenance and gas, I'd say the answer to that question is "now". https://www.edmunds.com/industry/press/new-vehicle-prices-climb-to-highest-level-of-the-year-in-april-according-to-edmunds-analysis.html https://www.edmunds.com/industry/press/new-vehicle-prices-cl...
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- bradlys 6y agoFrom what I know, this is due to trucks and SUVs - which there are not comparable alternatives in the electric world. (A Model X is way too expensive and there is no electric truck available now or anytime soon in mass quantity)
- foolfoolz 6y agoand this is only looking at new cars
- bonestamp2 6y agoHow soon is "soon"? GMC's pickup is supposed to be a 2022 model year, which means it will likely arrive in about a year.
- kevindong 6y agoJust because you can spend the average amount, it doesn't you have to spend the average amount. A car can cost well under even the base model Model 3 and have 90% of the same functionality (the price disparity gets even larger if you opt into Autopilot); albeit it won't be the status symbol that is a Tesla.
- rrrrrrrrrrrryan 6y agoThere are cheaper EVs on the market than Teslas. Nissan Leafs and Toyota Priuses are closer to $30k flat, and the Honda Fit is $16k new.
- mhh__ 6y ago2035 is still a long way away - by this time the German manufacturers will have gone to battle stations on EVs. VW group's R&D budget is roughly comparable with Tesla's revenue, they may need a kick up the arse to get going but when they do EVs will definitely go up a gear. I also think SUVs should possibly be banned fairly soon (Bad for cities, bad for roads, bad for parking, emissions etc.)
- mxschumacher 6y agoI'll eat my hat if there is a national ban on SUVs and pickups in the US in the next few years. Instead, I expect their market share to increase
- Nbox9 6y agoNot only do I think a national ban on SUVs and pickups will be politically impossible in the next 10 years, I think it’s a terrible idea. If you think it’s likely to happen you should spend more time out of whatever urban core you live in. If you have a family of more than 4 an SUV is both practical and economical. The whole family can go places together, with enough cargo space for a beach weekend or a costco run. If you ban pickup trucks you’ll essentially ban private boat ownership. You’ll also upset the many people that use their truck for both personal and business common for construction/agri/landscaping.
- kmonsen 6y agoWhy would we even ban SUVs or pickups? If you are concerned with global warming it seems to me that pollution should be taxed and if some people are still choosing to do so they can. And then keep raising these goals so we get rid of inefficient SUVs. This is what EU is doing pretty successfully with the German car manufacturers being dragged kicking and screaming into making low polluting cars.
- Bedon292 6y agoSUVs can certainly be practical, though a crossover or minivan can do many of those things too. With better fuel efficiency and less weight on the road. Would it actually have a large effect on boat ownership? Something like a Model X (or many regular crossovers as well) can tow 4-5000 lbs, which should cover the common ones right? I don't really know much about boats, but some quick research suggest that covers the common ones. I also didn't realize just how common boat ownership is in the US, but apparently its ~1 in 10 households. But you are right, we are certainly not close to being able to replace trucks for business use at this time. The F150 is the top selling vehicle, and has been for many years. Mostly because of business uses. I don't think trucks are going anywhere for a long time in the US.
- tootie 6y agoThere may be cost to doing this but car prices have never factored in their environmental cost and now they absolutely have to. If you consider both the TCO of an gas vs electric vehicle and the long term cost of climate change, it's a bargain.
- dublin 6y agoIt's also competing with low-mileage $12-15K used cars that you can actually take on a cross-country trip. The Tesla store here in Austin recently confirmed for me that a trip to South Florida would take more than three times as long in a Tesla as a gas-powered car, after figuring in charging stops and the twisty routes required to get to the chargers. (And that was a $100K Model S!) And remember folks, EVs aren't zero emissions, they're just remote emissions!
- ClumsyPilot 6y agoYou know a car without any safety features could be even cheaper. Petrol with lead and sulphur is cheaper. Houses with asbestos are cheaper. Why do you feel entitled to a certain price on cars?
- Someone1234 6y agoThat's absurd hyperbole. $25K gas vehicles or $27K Hybrids represent Toyota, not "vehicles without safety features." Also, you're putting the cart and horse in the wrong order, nobody felt entitled to anything, we were discussing EVs making sense without states needing to push/mandate them which means competitive pricing that's affordable relative to other offerings in the existing market. Your whole argument feels like a way to shut down discussion.
- slg 6y agoI think you misunderstood the point there. That $25k gas vehicle would be much cheaper without its required safety features. We are fine with the government mandating an increase in price in order to guarantee safety features. It isn't that much of a stretch to have them mandating an increase in price in order to guarantee zero emissions.
- bonestamp2 6y ago> $25K gas vehicles or $27K Hybrids represent Toyota, not "vehicles without safety features." I agree, but I think their point was something along the lines of: gas cars are cheaper, and there are ways to make cars even cheaper than those cars (ex. removing many safety features), so where do you draw the line for how cheap cars should be vs the minimum level of responsibility they should comply with -- safety, environmental, morality, etc. I'm sure before the government regulated a lot of safety features, had they asked the public if they would want those responsible features forced on them if it was going to drive the base price of cars way up, they too would have said no. But today, it seems absurd in hindsight not to have seat belts, the same way it will probably seem absurd in 35 years that we have minimal environmental regulations in place right now. That doesn't make it right, but it's an interesting dynamic to think that we've exhausted the low hanging personal safety fruit and now we need to address more environmental safety features.
- TheCoelacanth 6y agoSurely that's why this starts in 2035 and not in 2020. If the technology was already there to replace cars with no price premium, we should be outlawing ICE cars today.