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I'm wondering how they will replace all the gas/diesel 4WD vehicles used by ranchers and vineyard managers here in Sonoma / Napa CA. The wine / grape industry i

I'm wondering how they will replace all the gas/diesel 4WD vehicles used by ranchers and vineyard managers here in Sonoma / Napa CA. The wine / grape industry is $1.5B+ for sonoma county alone - Napa is at least that or more. You need reliable 4x4 vehicles to access and work in the remote areas where many grapes are grown up here now.

birken 6y ago
They'll probably make electric versions of those vehicles? Is there any reason those types of vehicles must be gas powered?
- bluGill 6y ago
  That depends - The vast majority of 4x4s never go far enough off road that the advantages of gas matter. For the tiny number of people who do that, the ability to bring extra gas with is important. Note that batteries are so heavy that it isn't an option to bring batteries with - the weight is a negative in many 4x4 situations even if the truck could handle it.
sulam 6y ago
EV models of such vehicles are starting to be produced in "demo" models now, so it doesn't seem like a technical barrier to have them in mass production by the time this takes effect.
ISL 6y ago
On the reliability front, electric vehicles have far fewer moving parts than IC vehicles. If the world switches entirely to electric, really great electric 4x4s will appear. I can't recall a time that I've used a cordless drill and thought to myself, "man, this thing would be so much better if it were powered by a two-stroke motor". This advantage is especially clear in the case of a 4x4: one need not include viscous couplings and fancy differentials.
- bluGill 6y ago
  >electric vehicles have far fewer moving parts than IC vehicles Not true. You still have the suspention system which has a lot of moving parts. there are also the moving parts of the brakes. Then the steering system. In theory you don't need a transmission, but in practice you do. There are a few less moving parts, but not substantially less. The moving parts you lose are mostly in a controlled environment with plenty of lubrication and no dirt (though there are other acid combustion byproducts). > I can't recall a time that I've used a cordless drill and thought to myself, "man, this thing would be so much better if it were powered by a two-stroke motor". I have a cordless chainsaw and weed whip. Both would be better with an IC engine. Batteries are much heavier than gas, and this is really noticeable when using them for a while. These are new Dewalt 60 volt systems, not some old technology. Of course there are advantages to battery - I won't got back to gas, like I would have 20 years ago when I first used a battery weed whip. I like the low noise and there is plenty of power. However the gas engine would be lighter. I've also seen gas powered drills and I'm sure that the same applies, batteries are good, but the extra weight to get the same power is a factor. Most drills are used indoors of course so gas was never a real option and that is why battery drills become popular as soon as they worked at all.
  - nicoffeine 6y ago
    There’s a detailed explanation of the differences between an electric motor and an internal-combustion engine (ICE). The latter is far more complicated - it requires a crankshaft with counterweights to translate the linear motion of the pistons into rotational motion, a flywheel to smooth power output, a DC motor for starting, an alternator to charge the battery, a cooling system, and a host of other gadgets that an electric motor doesn’t need. An induction motor, which produces direct rotational motion and uniform power output, is much smaller and lighter. Tesla’s induction motor puts out 270 kW of power and weighs 31.8 kg, whereas an ICE that produces 140 kW of power is going to weigh around 180 kg. [1] Teslas use electric motors that have two moving parts, and single-speed “transmissions” that have no gears. The company says its drivetrain has about 17 moving parts compared with about 200 in a conventional internal combustion drivetrain.[2] Far fewer moving parts, and a transmission with no moving parts. Electric cars are so efficient that they are actually bad for the economy - by some estimates it may cut the number of jobs in auto manufacturing by 50%. [2] Who knows how many jobs will be lost with the reduction in fossil fuels and the disappearance of gas stations, fuel deliveries, fewer mechanics... Electric motors also last for decades with negligible degradation compared to ICEs. The advances in battery technology will make older EVs that much more valuable, since their range will increase over time with battery upgrades that will probably be cheaper than buying a similarly sized IC engine. [1] https://evannex.com/blogs/news/how-does-an-electric-car-work https://evannex.com/blogs/news/how-does-an-electric-car-work [2] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-things-that-make-the-tesla-a-great-car-2016-08-19 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-things-that-make-the-te... [3] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/electric-vehicles-pose-real-risk-autoworkers-halving-number-people-required-n1060426 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/electric-vehicles-pos...
ohazi 6y ago
4x4 / all terrain doesn't seem to be much of an issue for electric vehicles. Electric motors are torquier, and it's easy to design drivetrains that use multiple motors. It seems pretty likely that electric trucks will be here by then (Rivian, Cybertruck, freaked-out traditional manufacturers jumping in a few years later). The bigger issue is probably range, for users that need to work in truly remote areas. But big trucks can carry a lot of batteries, too. I think the number of operators that genuinely need more than ~500 miles or so of range is probably pretty low.
- jefurii 6y ago
  Looks like there's an exception for certain use-cases, and extreme range requirements would probably fall into that. Fuel cells might be an option for that requirement.
phobosanomaly 6y ago
Maybe there will be a special class for certain niche applications, like off-road motorcycles and light trucks used in rougher applications in remote areas. I would love to have a diesel-powered 4x4 light pickup with a 5-speed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Amarok https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Amarok
- rsync 6y ago
  "light trucks used in rougher applications in remote areas." I am sure there will, indeed, be special carve-outs and I am sure the auto manufacturers will find a way to exploit those carve-outs such that every dude in the state can continue to pretend they're a rancher (as they drive their quad cab 1.5ton to and from their apartment building every day). Remember - you can never have too much truck.
  - phobosanomaly 6y ago
    Yeah, the trend towards larger and larger pickups is unfortunate. A small, light truck is a really useful vehicle, and the U.S. truck market is due for some new vehicles in that class. A lot of the older used Tacomas have headed south of the border where they're used quite a bit, so that market is drying up.
  - thrashh 6y ago
    What if you live in the city but go camping or mountain biking in the mountains every other weekend? Then you gotta own something that doesn’t look like it fits in the city.
jazzyjackson 6y ago
The press release only mentions passenger vehicles, not farm equipment. Within a couple of decades I think there will be some good choices for electric off road vehicles. Polaris already sells an EV side by side [1] [1] https://ranger.polaris.com/en-us/ranger-ev/ https://ranger.polaris.com/en-us/ranger-ev/
seany 6y ago
I've driven over 30k miles this year across 3 vehicles. Mostly on road trips. Almost 5k of that was on unpaved roads in a 4x4 full size lifted diesel truck. I carry between 35 and 100 gal of gas at a time to do those kinds of trips. Seems like fantastic business opportunity for out of state registration via a llc or something.

birken 6y ago

They'll probably make electric versions of those vehicles? Is there any reason those types of vehicles must be gas powered?

bluGill 6y ago
That depends - The vast majority of 4x4s never go far enough off road that the advantages of gas matter. For the tiny number of people who do that, the ability to bring extra gas with is important. Note that batteries are so heavy that it isn't an option to bring batteries with - the weight is a negative in many 4x4 situations even if the truck could handle it.

sulam 6y ago

EV models of such vehicles are starting to be produced in "demo" models now, so it doesn't seem like a technical barrier to have them in mass production by the time this takes effect.

ISL 6y ago

On the reliability front, electric vehicles have far fewer moving parts than IC vehicles. If the world switches entirely to electric, really great electric 4x4s will appear. I can't recall a time that I've used a cordless drill and thought to myself, "man, this thing would be so much better if it were powered by a two-stroke motor". This advantage is especially clear in the case of a 4x4: one need not include viscous couplings and fancy differentials.

bluGill 6y ago
>electric vehicles have far fewer moving parts than IC vehicles Not true. You still have the suspention system which has a lot of moving parts. there are also the moving parts of the brakes. Then the steering system. In theory you don't need a transmission, but in practice you do. There are a few less moving parts, but not substantially less. The moving parts you lose are mostly in a controlled environment with plenty of lubrication and no dirt (though there are other acid combustion byproducts). > I can't recall a time that I've used a cordless drill and thought to myself, "man, this thing would be so much better if it were powered by a two-stroke motor". I have a cordless chainsaw and weed whip. Both would be better with an IC engine. Batteries are much heavier than gas, and this is really noticeable when using them for a while. These are new Dewalt 60 volt systems, not some old technology. Of course there are advantages to battery - I won't got back to gas, like I would have 20 years ago when I first used a battery weed whip. I like the low noise and there is plenty of power. However the gas engine would be lighter. I've also seen gas powered drills and I'm sure that the same applies, batteries are good, but the extra weight to get the same power is a factor. Most drills are used indoors of course so gas was never a real option and that is why battery drills become popular as soon as they worked at all.
- nicoffeine 6y ago
  There’s a detailed explanation of the differences between an electric motor and an internal-combustion engine (ICE). The latter is far more complicated - it requires a crankshaft with counterweights to translate the linear motion of the pistons into rotational motion, a flywheel to smooth power output, a DC motor for starting, an alternator to charge the battery, a cooling system, and a host of other gadgets that an electric motor doesn’t need. An induction motor, which produces direct rotational motion and uniform power output, is much smaller and lighter. Tesla’s induction motor puts out 270 kW of power and weighs 31.8 kg, whereas an ICE that produces 140 kW of power is going to weigh around 180 kg. [1] Teslas use electric motors that have two moving parts, and single-speed “transmissions” that have no gears. The company says its drivetrain has about 17 moving parts compared with about 200 in a conventional internal combustion drivetrain.[2] Far fewer moving parts, and a transmission with no moving parts. Electric cars are so efficient that they are actually bad for the economy - by some estimates it may cut the number of jobs in auto manufacturing by 50%. [2] Who knows how many jobs will be lost with the reduction in fossil fuels and the disappearance of gas stations, fuel deliveries, fewer mechanics... Electric motors also last for decades with negligible degradation compared to ICEs. The advances in battery technology will make older EVs that much more valuable, since their range will increase over time with battery upgrades that will probably be cheaper than buying a similarly sized IC engine. [1] https://evannex.com/blogs/news/how-does-an-electric-car-work https://evannex.com/blogs/news/how-does-an-electric-car-work [2] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-things-that-make-the-tesla-a-great-car-2016-08-19 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-things-that-make-the-te... [3] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/electric-vehicles-pose-real-risk-autoworkers-halving-number-people-required-n1060426 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/electric-vehicles-pos...

ohazi 6y ago

4x4 / all terrain doesn't seem to be much of an issue for electric vehicles. Electric motors are torquier, and it's easy to design drivetrains that use multiple motors. It seems pretty likely that electric trucks will be here by then (Rivian, Cybertruck, freaked-out traditional manufacturers jumping in a few years later). The bigger issue is probably range, for users that need to work in truly remote areas. But big trucks can carry a lot of batteries, too. I think the number of operators that genuinely need more than ~500 miles or so of range is probably pretty low.

jefurii 6y ago
Looks like there's an exception for certain use-cases, and extreme range requirements would probably fall into that. Fuel cells might be an option for that requirement.

phobosanomaly 6y ago

Maybe there will be a special class for certain niche applications, like off-road motorcycles and light trucks used in rougher applications in remote areas. I would love to have a diesel-powered 4x4 light pickup with a 5-speed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Amarok https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Amarok

rsync 6y ago
"light trucks used in rougher applications in remote areas." I am sure there will, indeed, be special carve-outs and I am sure the auto manufacturers will find a way to exploit those carve-outs such that every dude in the state can continue to pretend they're a rancher (as they drive their quad cab 1.5ton to and from their apartment building every day). Remember - you can never have too much truck.
- phobosanomaly 6y ago
  Yeah, the trend towards larger and larger pickups is unfortunate. A small, light truck is a really useful vehicle, and the U.S. truck market is due for some new vehicles in that class. A lot of the older used Tacomas have headed south of the border where they're used quite a bit, so that market is drying up.
- thrashh 6y ago
  What if you live in the city but go camping or mountain biking in the mountains every other weekend? Then you gotta own something that doesn’t look like it fits in the city.

jazzyjackson 6y ago

The press release only mentions passenger vehicles, not farm equipment. Within a couple of decades I think there will be some good choices for electric off road vehicles. Polaris already sells an EV side by side [1] [1] https://ranger.polaris.com/en-us/ranger-ev/ https://ranger.polaris.com/en-us/ranger-ev/

seany 6y ago

I've driven over 30k miles this year across 3 vehicles. Mostly on road trips. Almost 5k of that was on unpaved roads in a 4x4 full size lifted diesel truck. I carry between 35 and 100 gal of gas at a time to do those kinds of trips. Seems like fantastic business opportunity for out of state registration via a llc or something.