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This phases out car sales, not the cars. Lifecycle is 15 years, so we're looking at 2050. For context, EVs are a few percent of sales in California, and almost

This phases out car sales, not the cars. Lifecycle is 15 years, so we're looking at 2050. For context, EVs are a few percent of sales in California, and almost zero for trucks.

tyingq 6y ago
Sounds like only for "new car" sales also.
chrisseaton 6y ago
Don't trucks generally run on Diesel, so aren't effected by this? Could people start buying more Diesel cars, as well as trucks, because of this?
- svachalek 6y ago
  The title says gasoline but the body says “zero-emission”. I suspect the actual legislation is about emissions not type of fuel.
- mlindner 6y ago
  It says passenger vehicles, so I expect trucks to be included but not semi trucks and other cargo vehicles.
- chadash 6y ago
  The subtitle says all vehicles sold must be zero-emissions, so that presumably includes diesel. But this seems to only target passenger vehicles, not freight carriers.
- babesh 6y ago
  “ Following the order, the California Air Resources Board will develop regulations to mandate that 100 percent of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks are zero-emission by 2035 – a target which would achieve more than a 35 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and an 80 percent improvement in oxides of nitrogen emissions from cars statewide. In addition, the Air Resources Board will develop regulations to mandate that all operations of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles shall be 100 percent zero emission by 2045 where feasible, with the mandate going into effect by 2035 for drayage trucks.” https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-...
  - chrisseaton 6y ago
    Hmmm I wonder why the title only mentions gasoline then?
- notional 6y ago
  There is a provision in there for medium and heavy duty vehicles to require it 10 yrs later but heavy duty day cab trucks meet the same req as cars.
abootstrapper 6y ago
Sure doesn’t seem aggressive enough, yet it’s the most aggressive stance on gas transportation to date, that I’m aware of.
- vinni2 6y ago
  https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/norway-ban-sale-all-fossil-fuel-based-cars-2025-and-replace-electric-vehicles-a7065616.html https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/nor...
bjelkeman-again 6y ago
With the right incentives it can go faster. > Clean transport transition leader Norway hit a huge 70.2% plugin passenger vehicle market share in August, up from 49% a year ago. Pure battery electrics alone took 53% of the market. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/02/norway-in-august-over-70-ev-market-share-and-heading-higher/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/02/norway-in-august-over-7...
- Svip 6y ago
  I wish these articles would also count many are primary cars (i.e. a household replacing or buying a car, meaning they don't otherwise have one), and how many are secondary cars (i.e. in addition to another car, particularly non-EVs). My anecdotal evidence from Norway suggest most people get EVs as their secondary cars. I wish I had more numbers.
  - bjelkeman-again 6y ago
    > The study found that 63% of Norwegian households with electric cars also have a fossil car or hybrid car, down from 70% in 2017. The survey also found that among respondents having only one car in the household, one third (32.4%) are electric car owners, up from 26.3% in 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway#2018_survey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N...
- loeg 6y ago
  Norway heavily subsidized new electric vehicle purchases to achieve this result. Coincidentally, the principal for Norway's huge sovereign wealth fund comes largely from oil extraction.
  - refurb 6y ago
    My understanding is at least for Tesla’s (and presumably other EVs), Norway just lower the enormous taxes they normally apply to ICE cars.
    - 6y ago
chadash 6y ago
> "so we're looking at 2050" Probably sooner. In 2034, a year before this takes place, gasoline car sales will probably be small to negligible. In 2045, it'll be a hassle to own a gasoline car when most of the gas stations are closed.
Retric 6y ago
As EV ownership rises gas stations are going to become rare enough to be a real hassle. That’s likely to push people to 95+% EV around 2040ish. At which point the remaining IC cars stop being a big deal. We already went though something similar with catalytic converter requirements. Some people are going to drive 40+ year old cars, but they quickly become irrelevant.
- blackflame7000 6y ago
  You still have to figure out how to fill your battery as fast as you can fill at tank of gas.
  - dntrkv 6y ago
    Honestly not as big of a deal as many make it out to be. With EVs, the cars can be constantly charging when stopped. Even for longer trips, the newer, faster chargers can do 180 miles of charge in 15 minutes. This, combined with being able to charge virtually any time the car is stopped, can make electric cars even more convenient when it comes to filling up. Also, having your car at 100% at the start of any day more than makes up for those rare occasions when you're going on a 500+ mile road trip.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    Doesn't need to be equally fast. If you roadtrip a lot, it matters. But if you charge almost exclusively at home, then the number of times you have to recharge on a strict schedule is quite limited. The time savings from never going to the gas station is pretty significant compared with taking a half hour to recharge when you're on a long trip.
    - smileysteve 6y ago
      Even if you road trip significantly; Human physiology suggests eating, waste disposal, or at least moving around (to prevent blood clots) at about half the current range of Teslas (3 hrs or 180 miles). And current charging technology allows fast charging particularly well at these percentages. Ie, charge for 30 minutes every 3 hours, 1 hour every 6 hours, and on either the 12 or 15th hour you charge for 4+ hours (and sleep)
colpabar 6y ago
How I wish we could phase out cars. I know that they're necessary for some, and a huge convenience for most. But I would LOVE to be able to walk down a street and not have to worry about getting run over by a 1T steel object because the driver was reading a text.
- bradlys 6y ago
  Use a sidewalk?
natch 6y ago
I expect there will be other measures in the future. Heavier taxes on gasoline and such, and higher DMV registration fees, growing over time. And EV sales will grow as more people test drive the better EVs. People looking for a used car will be trying to find a good used electric. Gasoline car resale value is going to crash hard.
throwaway0a5e 6y ago
We're likely looking at massive "polluter" surcharges on already expensive registration for anyone driving an ICE vehicle in 2040 or so. Gotta kick 'em when they're down. /s On the flip side, it will be a great time to own a "buy here pay here" lot.
- titzer 6y ago
  Since you posted almost exactly the same comment further up the thread. It's important to consider that ICE vehicles have been puking out air pollution and CO2 for more than a century, killing thousands, if not millions of people and contributing greatly to climate change, which is getting worse. It frustrates me that people take umbrage at being charged money for using energy and polluting the environment.
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    >It frustrates me that people take umbrage at being charged money for using energy and polluting the environment. I take issue with it when those people are mostly only the people who do so because they cannot afford to do better (which will likely be the case in 2035+).
    - titzer 6y ago
      And then in the next breath you question the need for a government subsidy.
      - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
        There's a difference between a subsidy and kicking who's already down. I was questioning the need for a government mandate in 2035 by pointing out that electric cars are soon to be viable without subsidies so if the market's gonna go that way anyway what's the point of the mandate?
        titzer 6y ago

This phases out car sales, not the cars. Lifecycle is 15 years, so we're looking at 2050. For context, EVs are a few percent of sales in California, and almost zero for trucks.

tyingq 6y ago

Sounds like only for "new car" sales also.

chrisseaton 6y ago

Don't trucks generally run on Diesel, so aren't effected by this? Could people start buying more Diesel cars, as well as trucks, because of this?

svachalek 6y ago
The title says gasoline but the body says “zero-emission”. I suspect the actual legislation is about emissions not type of fuel.
mlindner 6y ago
It says passenger vehicles, so I expect trucks to be included but not semi trucks and other cargo vehicles.
chadash 6y ago
The subtitle says all vehicles sold must be zero-emissions, so that presumably includes diesel. But this seems to only target passenger vehicles, not freight carriers.
babesh 6y ago
“ Following the order, the California Air Resources Board will develop regulations to mandate that 100 percent of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks are zero-emission by 2035 – a target which would achieve more than a 35 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and an 80 percent improvement in oxides of nitrogen emissions from cars statewide. In addition, the Air Resources Board will develop regulations to mandate that all operations of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles shall be 100 percent zero emission by 2045 where feasible, with the mandate going into effect by 2035 for drayage trucks.” https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-...
- chrisseaton 6y ago
  Hmmm I wonder why the title only mentions gasoline then?
notional 6y ago
There is a provision in there for medium and heavy duty vehicles to require it 10 yrs later but heavy duty day cab trucks meet the same req as cars.

abootstrapper 6y ago

Sure doesn’t seem aggressive enough, yet it’s the most aggressive stance on gas transportation to date, that I’m aware of.

vinni2 6y ago
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/norway-ban-sale-all-fossil-fuel-based-cars-2025-and-replace-electric-vehicles-a7065616.html https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/nor...

bjelkeman-again 6y ago

With the right incentives it can go faster. > Clean transport transition leader Norway hit a huge 70.2% plugin passenger vehicle market share in August, up from 49% a year ago. Pure battery electrics alone took 53% of the market. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/02/norway-in-august-over-70-ev-market-share-and-heading-higher/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/02/norway-in-august-over-7...

Svip 6y ago
I wish these articles would also count many are primary cars (i.e. a household replacing or buying a car, meaning they don't otherwise have one), and how many are secondary cars (i.e. in addition to another car, particularly non-EVs). My anecdotal evidence from Norway suggest most people get EVs as their secondary cars. I wish I had more numbers.
- bjelkeman-again 6y ago
  > The study found that 63% of Norwegian households with electric cars also have a fossil car or hybrid car, down from 70% in 2017. The survey also found that among respondents having only one car in the household, one third (32.4%) are electric car owners, up from 26.3% in 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway#2018_survey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N...
loeg 6y ago
Norway heavily subsidized new electric vehicle purchases to achieve this result. Coincidentally, the principal for Norway's huge sovereign wealth fund comes largely from oil extraction.
- refurb 6y ago
  My understanding is at least for Tesla’s (and presumably other EVs), Norway just lower the enormous taxes they normally apply to ICE cars.
  - 6y ago

chadash 6y ago

> "so we're looking at 2050" Probably sooner. In 2034, a year before this takes place, gasoline car sales will probably be small to negligible. In 2045, it'll be a hassle to own a gasoline car when most of the gas stations are closed.

Retric 6y ago

As EV ownership rises gas stations are going to become rare enough to be a real hassle. That’s likely to push people to 95+% EV around 2040ish. At which point the remaining IC cars stop being a big deal. We already went though something similar with catalytic converter requirements. Some people are going to drive 40+ year old cars, but they quickly become irrelevant.

blackflame7000 6y ago
You still have to figure out how to fill your battery as fast as you can fill at tank of gas.
- dntrkv 6y ago
  Honestly not as big of a deal as many make it out to be. With EVs, the cars can be constantly charging when stopped. Even for longer trips, the newer, faster chargers can do 180 miles of charge in 15 minutes. This, combined with being able to charge virtually any time the car is stopped, can make electric cars even more convenient when it comes to filling up. Also, having your car at 100% at the start of any day more than makes up for those rare occasions when you're going on a 500+ mile road trip.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  Doesn't need to be equally fast. If you roadtrip a lot, it matters. But if you charge almost exclusively at home, then the number of times you have to recharge on a strict schedule is quite limited. The time savings from never going to the gas station is pretty significant compared with taking a half hour to recharge when you're on a long trip.
  - smileysteve 6y ago
    Even if you road trip significantly; Human physiology suggests eating, waste disposal, or at least moving around (to prevent blood clots) at about half the current range of Teslas (3 hrs or 180 miles). And current charging technology allows fast charging particularly well at these percentages. Ie, charge for 30 minutes every 3 hours, 1 hour every 6 hours, and on either the 12 or 15th hour you charge for 4+ hours (and sleep)

colpabar 6y ago

How I wish we could phase out cars. I know that they're necessary for some, and a huge convenience for most. But I would LOVE to be able to walk down a street and not have to worry about getting run over by a 1T steel object because the driver was reading a text.

bradlys 6y ago
Use a sidewalk?

natch 6y ago

I expect there will be other measures in the future. Heavier taxes on gasoline and such, and higher DMV registration fees, growing over time. And EV sales will grow as more people test drive the better EVs. People looking for a used car will be trying to find a good used electric. Gasoline car resale value is going to crash hard.

throwaway0a5e 6y ago

We're likely looking at massive "polluter" surcharges on already expensive registration for anyone driving an ICE vehicle in 2040 or so. Gotta kick 'em when they're down. /s On the flip side, it will be a great time to own a "buy here pay here" lot.

titzer 6y ago
Since you posted almost exactly the same comment further up the thread. It's important to consider that ICE vehicles have been puking out air pollution and CO2 for more than a century, killing thousands, if not millions of people and contributing greatly to climate change, which is getting worse. It frustrates me that people take umbrage at being charged money for using energy and polluting the environment.
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  >It frustrates me that people take umbrage at being charged money for using energy and polluting the environment. I take issue with it when those people are mostly only the people who do so because they cannot afford to do better (which will likely be the case in 2035+).
  - titzer 6y ago
    And then in the next breath you question the need for a government subsidy.
    - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
      There's a difference between a subsidy and kicking who's already down. I was questioning the need for a government mandate in 2035 by pointing out that electric cars are soon to be viable without subsidies so if the market's gonna go that way anyway what's the point of the mandate?
      - titzer 6y ago