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Tesla sold ~50k cars in 2015. They sold ~250k cars last year. They are on track to sell 500k this year. See a trend there? And they just laid out concrete plans

Tesla sold ~50k cars in 2015. They sold ~250k cars last year. They are on track to sell 500k this year. See a trend there? And they just laid out concrete plans on how to grow by ~50% annually over the next 10 years. You are on hackernews. Surely you know how compounded growth works. Where do you think all this added market share comes from? Toyota's sales dropped by over 20% this year compared to the same time last year. Ford's global sales dropped over 30% this year and they lost billions of dollars. In the same time period, in the midst of a global pandemic, and having to shut down their main factory for over 8 weeks, Tesla's deliveries grew 20% YoY in the first half of 2020. The Model 3 outsold even the Camry and Accord in California earlier this year. "The horse-breeder laughs at the automobile man because he thinks no one can afford to buy one. Where is the horse breeder today?"

gamblor956 6y ago
You're not describing compounded growth, you're describing S-curve growth, meaning that they're close to plateauing. Based on numbers out of Europe, it appears that Tesla has already nearly saturated the market of potential upper-class EV buyers, barring the actual introduction of a $25k EV with 500+ miles of range, or substantial upgrades to the interiors of their cars. Toyota's sales dropped by over 20% this year compared to the same time last year. Ford's global sales dropped over 30% this year and they lost billions of dollars. True, as did Tesla's sales (see linked pdf below for % sales reduction for 2020). Notably, Tesla's profits were (again) due to higher regulatory credit sales to other car companies. Indeed, this continues the trend of Tesla recording a profit only in quarters in which it is able to make regulatory credit sales. And while Ford reported a loss on vehicle sales...like Tesla...they similarly reported a Q2 profit due to non-vehicle income (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/ford-f-earnings-q2-2020.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/ford-f-earnings-q2-2020.html). Tesla's deliveries grew 20% YoY in the first half of 2020. Yes, it's also a common complaint on the Tesla forums that cars built in 2019 weren't deliverable for months due to shoddy work requiring weeks or months of fixes. It's not surprising that deliveries would grow in 2020 as they finally had the time to fix the cars they already built so they could actually deliver them. Notably, their YoY numbers for H12020 for California are down almost 19%. The Model 3 outsold even the Camry and Accord in California earlier this year. This is false. Tesla reported 43,706 new Model 3 registrations in Q1+Q2 2020, while Toyota reported 43,821 new Camry registrations for the same period. (https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-REVISED.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-..., https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20....) The horse-breeder laughs at the automobile man because he thinks no one can afford to buy one. Where is the horse breeder today?" Horse breeders are better off today than they were back then. Horses cost more than cars. And with all due respect, the guy who said that quote knew jack shit about the rarity with which people actually used horses for traveling in the U.S. Most people outside of rural America didn't have space for a horse. Cars took off precisely because they were easier to maintain and store than horses. Indeed, the comparison is somewhat apt but in a different manner than you intended: EVs are the horses in this situation: most people don't have the means to charge EVs at home (or the money to afford the cost of installing a charger), nor do they have the spare time to spend hours charging their EVs, which severely limits the market of people who can buy EVs. For the foreseeable future, regular ICE cars are still far more convenient...as they were against horses more than a century ago.
- DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
  > meaning that they're close to plateauing [citations needed]. Their model Y numbers show that their deliveries are growing consistently. > Based on numbers out of Europe, it appears that Tesla has already nearly saturated the market of potential upper-class EV buyers Europe gets its Teslas by ship in blocks and this results in lumpy numbers. And even then lower numbers could also be due to the fact that they have a local factory being built out in Berlin right now, which would result in cheaper cars. > Notably, Tesla's profits were (again) due to higher regulatory credit sales to other car companies. If you look at their balance sheet, you would see that their operating expenses have been flat over the last several quarters while revenues and deliveries/production have gone up. Regulatory credit sales exist, and I do not fault them for using that to further invest their returns into growth instead of showing a profit. Currently, just the current sales of Model 3, S and X alone more than cover all of their operating expenses every quarter. Model Y and future models only add to their income going forward. Further evidence of this is that one year ago they had $2B in cash. They raised $10B from capital raises after that. They now have $12-$13B in cash, during a year where they brought a factory from zero to full production + started work on two more factories. This demonstrates significant positive cash-flow. > EVs are the horses in this situation ... most people don't have the means to charge EVs at home... nor do they have the spare time to spend hours charging their EVs I owned an EV in a small town in Iowa for over one year living in an apartment with no access to home charging. I hardly had to wait "hours for charging their EVs". I charged while grocery shopping or going to the gym and that was perfectly suffice even in peak winter. Many employers here offer at least 120V outlets in their employee parking lots which is again, enough for commutes. 150-250kW supercharging makes road-trips easy as well. > or the foreseeable future, regular ICE cars are still far more convenient Tesla is constantly driving down the cost and even right now, from a cost-of-ownership sense an EV is a no-brainer in the price range that it sits in. They have also dominated every market segment they have entered so far and also taken market share from lower-end vehicles [https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-cars-trade-in-honda-bmw-prius-leaf-2018-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-cars-trade-in-...]. As the effects of climate-change become more drastic, there will be regulatory moves to curb ICE vehicles as well as add more charging infrastructure. You can already see some of this in CA right now. Britain is planning on banning ICE vehicle sales by 2030, California by 2035.

gamblor956 6y ago

You're not describing compounded growth, you're describing S-curve growth, meaning that they're close to plateauing. Based on numbers out of Europe, it appears that Tesla has already nearly saturated the market of potential upper-class EV buyers, barring the actual introduction of a $25k EV with 500+ miles of range, or substantial upgrades to the interiors of their cars. Toyota's sales dropped by over 20% this year compared to the same time last year. Ford's global sales dropped over 30% this year and they lost billions of dollars. True, as did Tesla's sales (see linked pdf below for % sales reduction for 2020). Notably, Tesla's profits were (again) due to higher regulatory credit sales to other car companies. Indeed, this continues the trend of Tesla recording a profit only in quarters in which it is able to make regulatory credit sales. And while Ford reported a loss on vehicle sales...like Tesla...they similarly reported a Q2 profit due to non-vehicle income (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/ford-f-earnings-q2-2020.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/ford-f-earnings-q2-2020.html). Tesla's deliveries grew 20% YoY in the first half of 2020. Yes, it's also a common complaint on the Tesla forums that cars built in 2019 weren't deliverable for months due to shoddy work requiring weeks or months of fixes. It's not surprising that deliveries would grow in 2020 as they finally had the time to fix the cars they already built so they could actually deliver them. Notably, their YoY numbers for H12020 for California are down almost 19%. The Model 3 outsold even the Camry and Accord in California earlier this year. This is false. Tesla reported 43,706 new Model 3 registrations in Q1+Q2 2020, while Toyota reported 43,821 new Camry registrations for the same period. (https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-REVISED.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-..., https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20....) The horse-breeder laughs at the automobile man because he thinks no one can afford to buy one. Where is the horse breeder today?" Horse breeders are better off today than they were back then. Horses cost more than cars. And with all due respect, the guy who said that quote knew jack shit about the rarity with which people actually used horses for traveling in the U.S. Most people outside of rural America didn't have space for a horse. Cars took off precisely because they were easier to maintain and store than horses. Indeed, the comparison is somewhat apt but in a different manner than you intended: EVs are the horses in this situation: most people don't have the means to charge EVs at home (or the money to afford the cost of installing a charger), nor do they have the spare time to spend hours charging their EVs, which severely limits the market of people who can buy EVs. For the foreseeable future, regular ICE cars are still far more convenient...as they were against horses more than a century ago.

DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
> meaning that they're close to plateauing [citations needed]. Their model Y numbers show that their deliveries are growing consistently. > Based on numbers out of Europe, it appears that Tesla has already nearly saturated the market of potential upper-class EV buyers Europe gets its Teslas by ship in blocks and this results in lumpy numbers. And even then lower numbers could also be due to the fact that they have a local factory being built out in Berlin right now, which would result in cheaper cars. > Notably, Tesla's profits were (again) due to higher regulatory credit sales to other car companies. If you look at their balance sheet, you would see that their operating expenses have been flat over the last several quarters while revenues and deliveries/production have gone up. Regulatory credit sales exist, and I do not fault them for using that to further invest their returns into growth instead of showing a profit. Currently, just the current sales of Model 3, S and X alone more than cover all of their operating expenses every quarter. Model Y and future models only add to their income going forward. Further evidence of this is that one year ago they had $2B in cash. They raised $10B from capital raises after that. They now have $12-$13B in cash, during a year where they brought a factory from zero to full production + started work on two more factories. This demonstrates significant positive cash-flow. > EVs are the horses in this situation ... most people don't have the means to charge EVs at home... nor do they have the spare time to spend hours charging their EVs I owned an EV in a small town in Iowa for over one year living in an apartment with no access to home charging. I hardly had to wait "hours for charging their EVs". I charged while grocery shopping or going to the gym and that was perfectly suffice even in peak winter. Many employers here offer at least 120V outlets in their employee parking lots which is again, enough for commutes. 150-250kW supercharging makes road-trips easy as well. > or the foreseeable future, regular ICE cars are still far more convenient Tesla is constantly driving down the cost and even right now, from a cost-of-ownership sense an EV is a no-brainer in the price range that it sits in. They have also dominated every market segment they have entered so far and also taken market share from lower-end vehicles [https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-cars-trade-in-honda-bmw-prius-leaf-2018-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-cars-trade-in-...]. As the effects of climate-change become more drastic, there will be regulatory moves to curb ICE vehicles as well as add more charging infrastructure. You can already see some of this in CA right now. Britain is planning on banning ICE vehicle sales by 2030, California by 2035.