I don't think the AppleTV replaces any top-box right now, nor is it meant to do so. As long as you can't watch live tv with it, almost no-one will use it instea

I don't think the AppleTV replaces any top-box right now, nor is it meant to do so. As long as you can't watch live tv with it, almost no-one will use it instead of their cable subscription. That said, I don't really see problems with giving away the AppleTV for free with a one or two-year subscription; the iPhone is already available for free on contract in a lot of countries, and the AppleTV is a lot cheaper to produce.