4 ms·

MERS, SARS, MRSA, HIV Perhaps we use the guns more because we have them available.

dragontamer 6y ago
N95 masks don't seem to help vs HIV or MRSA, so I'm not quite sure why you're mentioning them. If you're worried about an HIV outbreak, it seems like we have enough condoms to protect against that. I think my general point is that our N95 mask production is enough, so long as we save masks and replenish the stockpile. Given the hundred years of pandemics, this COVID19 one is the worst since the 1918 flu by pretty much all measures. Its your canonical black-swan event. > Perhaps we use the guns more because we have them available. Did we run out of masks during H1N1, Avian Flu, Ebola, SARS, or any other pandemic before COVID19 ? Its been years since those examples, so maybe I don't remember exactly. H1N1 was a big deal, but it wasn't "hospitals ran out of equipment" big deal from my memory.
- roywiggins 6y ago
  We didn't run out of masks during H1N1 because we had a decent stockpile. We never replenished that stockpile. From the article: > the H1N1 flu epidemic depleted 85 million N95s from the national stockpile — and the supply was never replenished. In 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017, public health officials published alarming reports warning of a “massive gap” in what remained. COVID-19 is not a black swan. > “The Black Swan” was meant to explain why, in a networked world, we need to change business practices and social norms—not, as he recently told me, to provide “a cliché for any bad thing that surprises us.” Besides, the pandemic was wholly predictable—he, like Bill Gates, Laurie Garrett, and others, had predicted it—a white swan if ever there was one. “We issued our warning that, effectively, you should kill it in the egg,” Taleb told Bloomberg. Governments “did not want to spend pennies in January; now they are going to spend trillions.” https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-is... The mask shortage isn't even a black swan, it was both predictable and predicted. > The trade group for manufacturers of personal protective equipment in mid-2009 urged “immediate action” to restock N95 masks. The International Safety Equipment Association warned of “significant shortages” if another pandemic caused demand for masks to surge. > A nonprofit representing public health agencies, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), echoed industry’s appeal in a 2010 report funded by the federal government, recommending the repository of masks be “replenished for future events.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/face-masks-in-national-stockpile-have-not-been-substantially-replenished-since-2009/2020/03/10/57e57316-60c9-11ea-8baf-519cedb6ccd9_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/face-masks-in-...
- web007 6y ago
  > Did we run out of masks during H1N1, Avian Flu, Ebola, SARS, or any other pandemic before COVID19 ? Yes. Every single year when the wildfires torch California N95 masks become unobtainable for a couple of weeks. Having a larger supply and/or back stock available would make a difference. It's clear that planning is needed, but production also needs to increase to allow for stockpiling. You also talk about a "black-swan event" for something that was foreseeable and somewhat predictable. Just like flooding and earthquakes, pandemics come in cycles and we were due for one any time. It also means it'll happen again, so maybe we should be ready.
  - dragontamer 6y ago
    > Every single year when the wildfires torch California N95 masks become unobtainable for a couple of weeks. That hasn't affected the National N95 stockpile until this year. Maybe California should build their own N95 stockpile, at least if these fires keep happening more regularly.
- kevinmchugh 6y ago
  The exact weapons the US has used in war change over time too, mostly. There's 60 year old AKs in use in Iraq and Afghanistan, though

N95 masks don't seem to help vs HIV or MRSA, so I'm not quite sure why you're mentioning them. If you're worried about an HIV outbreak, it seems like we have enough condoms to protect against that. I think my general point is that our N95 mask production is enough, so long as we save masks and replenish the stockpile. Given the hundred years of pandemics, this COVID19 one is the worst since the 1918 flu by pretty much all measures. Its your canonical black-swan event. > Perhaps we use the guns more because we have them available. Did we run out of masks during H1N1, Avian Flu, Ebola, SARS, or any other pandemic before COVID19 ? Its been years since those examples, so maybe I don't remember exactly. H1N1 was a big deal, but it wasn't "hospitals ran out of equipment" big deal from my memory.

roywiggins 6y ago
We didn't run out of masks during H1N1 because we had a decent stockpile. We never replenished that stockpile. From the article: > the H1N1 flu epidemic depleted 85 million N95s from the national stockpile — and the supply was never replenished. In 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017, public health officials published alarming reports warning of a “massive gap” in what remained. COVID-19 is not a black swan. > “The Black Swan” was meant to explain why, in a networked world, we need to change business practices and social norms—not, as he recently told me, to provide “a cliché for any bad thing that surprises us.” Besides, the pandemic was wholly predictable—he, like Bill Gates, Laurie Garrett, and others, had predicted it—a white swan if ever there was one. “We issued our warning that, effectively, you should kill it in the egg,” Taleb told Bloomberg. Governments “did not want to spend pennies in January; now they are going to spend trillions.” https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-is... The mask shortage isn't even a black swan, it was both predictable and predicted. > The trade group for manufacturers of personal protective equipment in mid-2009 urged “immediate action” to restock N95 masks. The International Safety Equipment Association warned of “significant shortages” if another pandemic caused demand for masks to surge. > A nonprofit representing public health agencies, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), echoed industry’s appeal in a 2010 report funded by the federal government, recommending the repository of masks be “replenished for future events.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/face-masks-in-national-stockpile-have-not-been-substantially-replenished-since-2009/2020/03/10/57e57316-60c9-11ea-8baf-519cedb6ccd9_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/face-masks-in-...
web007 6y ago
> Did we run out of masks during H1N1, Avian Flu, Ebola, SARS, or any other pandemic before COVID19 ? Yes. Every single year when the wildfires torch California N95 masks become unobtainable for a couple of weeks. Having a larger supply and/or back stock available would make a difference. It's clear that planning is needed, but production also needs to increase to allow for stockpiling. You also talk about a "black-swan event" for something that was foreseeable and somewhat predictable. Just like flooding and earthquakes, pandemics come in cycles and we were due for one any time. It also means it'll happen again, so maybe we should be ready.
- dragontamer 6y ago
  > Every single year when the wildfires torch California N95 masks become unobtainable for a couple of weeks. That hasn't affected the National N95 stockpile until this year. Maybe California should build their own N95 stockpile, at least if these fires keep happening more regularly.
kevinmchugh 6y ago
The exact weapons the US has used in war change over time too, mostly. There's 60 year old AKs in use in Iraq and Afghanistan, though