4 ms·

If we disrupt the balance, after some time we will reach a different equilibrium state. It currently looks like we are going to cause a cascade of tipping poin

If we disrupt the balance, after some time we will reach a different equilibrium state. It currently looks like we are going to cause a cascade of tipping points which will result in the earth reaching a new stable equalibrium called "Hothouse Earth" some 4-5 degree celsius above pre-industrial levels [1]. In such a climate, earth would possibly not be able to sustain a large multi-billion human population. [1] https://phys.org/news/2018-08-earth-hothouse-state.html https://phys.org/news/2018-08-earth-hothouse-state.html

chrisco255 6y ago
First of all, this 'hothouse earth' theory is on extremely thin ice. The CO2 levels have increased almost 33% since the mid 1800s and we have not observed runaway warming of any kind. With each passing year the percentage of the increase in CO2 levels decreases. We will see diminishing returns on CO2's influence on radiation as time goes on. We have already observed several periods in the modern climate era, the Holocene, that have been warmer than modern temperatures with nothing but positive implications for humanity during those times. These periods include the Medieval Warm Period (aligned with the Viking Age and the conquering of Iceland and Greenland), the Roman Warm Period (aligned with Rome's golden age) which saw the Mediterranean as being 2C hotter than modern temps [1], the Minoan Warm period (which was also a boomtime for humanity until the Santorini explosion plunged temperatures worldwide) [2] and of course the Holocene Climate Optimum (about 9000 to 5000 years before present, also associated with booms in human populations in China and elsewhere [3]. In fact, the most devastating events to occur to humans and life on earth tends to be associated with global plunge in temperatures, like the Younger Dryas event just before the onset of the Holocene, that saw temperatures plunge to ice age levels, and is associated with numerous extinctions. Cold episodes in earth's climate are really to be feared. They cause drought, famine, and widespread misery. Warmth and CO2 are good for plants. I hope we continue to warm, but Earth can always revert back into a glacial phase and we are powerless to stop it. [1] Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67281-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67281-2 [2] Swedish tree rings provide new evidence in support of a major, widespread environmental disruption in 1628 BC https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999GL010852 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999... [3] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1040618218307997 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10406... [4] https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/younger-dryas https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sci...
- polotics 6y ago
  Very well crafted hokum, congratulations. CO2 is not good for plants that burn because the weather's been too dry. Very local adapted low population environments cannot be compared to what's going on now, all your examples in the same temperature range as now are pure coastal populations with no sea level rise, the earlier era examples are warming from much lower temps, basically recovery from the glaciation of 20k years ago. You write "With each passing year the percentage of the increase in CO2 levels decreases." It is absolutes that matters, each carbone dioxyde molecule added contributes to greenhouse just like all the previously spewed ones there is no diminishing returns on that, and tipping points are indeed waiting. And we have not observed what? We have observed already a lot of runaway chaos you know full well.

chrisco255 6y ago

First of all, this 'hothouse earth' theory is on extremely thin ice. The CO2 levels have increased almost 33% since the mid 1800s and we have not observed runaway warming of any kind. With each passing year the percentage of the increase in CO2 levels decreases. We will see diminishing returns on CO2's influence on radiation as time goes on. We have already observed several periods in the modern climate era, the Holocene, that have been warmer than modern temperatures with nothing but positive implications for humanity during those times. These periods include the Medieval Warm Period (aligned with the Viking Age and the conquering of Iceland and Greenland), the Roman Warm Period (aligned with Rome's golden age) which saw the Mediterranean as being 2C hotter than modern temps [1], the Minoan Warm period (which was also a boomtime for humanity until the Santorini explosion plunged temperatures worldwide) [2] and of course the Holocene Climate Optimum (about 9000 to 5000 years before present, also associated with booms in human populations in China and elsewhere [3]. In fact, the most devastating events to occur to humans and life on earth tends to be associated with global plunge in temperatures, like the Younger Dryas event just before the onset of the Holocene, that saw temperatures plunge to ice age levels, and is associated with numerous extinctions. Cold episodes in earth's climate are really to be feared. They cause drought, famine, and widespread misery. Warmth and CO2 are good for plants. I hope we continue to warm, but Earth can always revert back into a glacial phase and we are powerless to stop it. [1] Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67281-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67281-2 [2] Swedish tree rings provide new evidence in support of a major, widespread environmental disruption in 1628 BC https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999GL010852 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999... [3] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1040618218307997 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10406... [4] https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/younger-dryas https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sci...

polotics 6y ago
Very well crafted hokum, congratulations. CO2 is not good for plants that burn because the weather's been too dry. Very local adapted low population environments cannot be compared to what's going on now, all your examples in the same temperature range as now are pure coastal populations with no sea level rise, the earlier era examples are warming from much lower temps, basically recovery from the glaciation of 20k years ago. You write "With each passing year the percentage of the increase in CO2 levels decreases." It is absolutes that matters, each carbone dioxyde molecule added contributes to greenhouse just like all the previously spewed ones there is no diminishing returns on that, and tipping points are indeed waiting. And we have not observed what? We have observed already a lot of runaway chaos you know full well.