2 ms·

I don't think it is meaningful if Texas flips, only if it becomes a swing state. If Trump looses Texas he will already have lost the election a long time ago so

I don't think it is meaningful if Texas flips, only if it becomes a swing state. If Trump looses Texas he will already have lost the election a long time ago so it doesn't really matter. Note that some states with almost similar number of electoral votes are going in the other direction. Florida is becoming more safe red all the time, and PA is a swing state and might become safe red at some point.

aaronbrethorst 6y ago
only if it becomes a swing state That's what it flipping would mean. TX was purple. Then it became red. Its demographic trends[0] show it coming into play again. The good news is that under a national popular vote, a Republican could probably survive a narrow popular vote loss in Texas or Florida and still win the presidency, because every GOP vote in those states would still count toward a national popular vote majority. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/28/gop-national-popular-vote-227915 https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/28/gop-natio... [0] At least as long as the Republican Party is adamantly anti-immigrant. https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/20/texas-hispanic-population-pace-surpass-white-residents/ https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/20/texas-hispanic-popul...
- kmonsen 6y ago
  Swing state and flipping is (or can be thought of as) different things. The democrats can possibly win Texas this year, and Beto was fairly close. But if Biden wins Texas the election is already long over, he will have won more than 270 delegates for sure. If you look at the snake chart here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ you can see Texas if 6/7 states away from being the swing state for this election. Currently if Texas goes democratic there is realistically no path for republicans to win a presidential election. To say it a different way, at some point if the democrats gets popular enough they win every state. That doesn't mean that every state is a swing state, just that people are fed up with that party. Long term the demographics are not looking good for Texas GOP, based on current voting trends. Most likely the party will adept and come up with new policies to attract different voters. Or you know suppress the vote and rig the elections.

aaronbrethorst 6y ago

only if it becomes a swing state That's what it flipping would mean. TX was purple. Then it became red. Its demographic trends[0] show it coming into play again. The good news is that under a national popular vote, a Republican could probably survive a narrow popular vote loss in Texas or Florida and still win the presidency, because every GOP vote in those states would still count toward a national popular vote majority. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/28/gop-national-popular-vote-227915 https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/28/gop-natio... [0] At least as long as the Republican Party is adamantly anti-immigrant. https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/20/texas-hispanic-population-pace-surpass-white-residents/ https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/20/texas-hispanic-popul...

kmonsen 6y ago
Swing state and flipping is (or can be thought of as) different things. The democrats can possibly win Texas this year, and Beto was fairly close. But if Biden wins Texas the election is already long over, he will have won more than 270 delegates for sure. If you look at the snake chart here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ you can see Texas if 6/7 states away from being the swing state for this election. Currently if Texas goes democratic there is realistically no path for republicans to win a presidential election. To say it a different way, at some point if the democrats gets popular enough they win every state. That doesn't mean that every state is a swing state, just that people are fed up with that party. Long term the demographics are not looking good for Texas GOP, based on current voting trends. Most likely the party will adept and come up with new policies to attract different voters. Or you know suppress the vote and rig the elections.