5 ms·

Go back further, and that's not the case.

ashtonkem 6y ago
Prior to that you’ve got the massive slave states of the Roman Empire or various Greek poleis, plus the mass killings of various wars causes by different empires in different times and places. Do recall that the Mongols killed 11% of the world’s population. And even with the collapse of some of these slave states and massive empires, the resulting chaos and uncertainty drove the population into the exact same feudal arrangements that I described before. If you want to go back further, it’s estimated that 40-50% of adult fatalities in hunter gatherer societies were caused by murder, based off of historical evidence and study of modern hunter gatherer population. There really aren’t that many eras you can point to that are really much better than the present for a typical human being. There are plenty of times that are better for the kind of person who writes history books, but that is a very different proposition.
- bollu 6y ago
  Where can I read more about murder in hunter gatherer societies? That sounds fascinating
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    I can’t recall where I read that 40% number, unfortunately. And boiling such a wide range of social experiences down to a single number is eventually going to get me in a lot of trouble with anthropologists. Here’s a decent breakdown of the evidence for various state and non-state ancient societies[0]. Obviously there is some significant overlap between state and non-state societies, but in general the violent death rate in ancient societies is really high compared to even the 1800s, an era we consider violent by modern standards. 0: https://ourworldindata.org/ethnographic-and-archaeological-evidence-on-violent-deaths https://ourworldindata.org/ethnographic-and-archaeological-e...
- Ar-Curunir 6y ago
  Your statistics for adult mortality in hunter-gatherer societies is contradicted by this article: https://www.jstor.org/stable/25434609 https://www.jstor.org/stable/25434609 That study indicates that violence-based mortality is high in a few hunter-gatherer societies, but not in all of them, and also not in societies adjacent to these.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    This is a hotly contested subject in anthropology, so it will be pretty easy to find dueling sources about the precise rate of violent death in various pre-agriculture societies. And you know what? It doesn't matter. The exact percentage of the population that got murdered is only one portion of the basic thesis that the present is the best time for the average human being to be alive ever. While the typical ancient adult may or may not have been murdered, the average ancient human would be dead before their 15th birthday due to disease (most common), malnutrition, or predation. The worst countries today for infant mortality are in central Africa, with countries like Chad, Nigeria, and Somalia averaging a heart breaking ~11% mortality rate for those under the age of five. While I wouldn't run around shouting "this is fine and we should do nothing about it" compared to the entirety of human existence this is an astounding stat. There are royal families a few centuries ago that did worse than 11%. No, these benefits are not evenly distributed. All in, you'd much rather be born in the US or the EU than in say, Chad. And quality of life does not improve linearly; you would much rather be a hunter gatherer than someone in an ancient Greek polis, where you were both more likely to be enslaved and where you'd probably live an even shorter and more disease ridden life. But if you had to pick any point in time to be a random, average person, now is the best time in all of human history to pick.

Prior to that you’ve got the massive slave states of the Roman Empire or various Greek poleis, plus the mass killings of various wars causes by different empires in different times and places. Do recall that the Mongols killed 11% of the world’s population. And even with the collapse of some of these slave states and massive empires, the resulting chaos and uncertainty drove the population into the exact same feudal arrangements that I described before. If you want to go back further, it’s estimated that 40-50% of adult fatalities in hunter gatherer societies were caused by murder, based off of historical evidence and study of modern hunter gatherer population. There really aren’t that many eras you can point to that are really much better than the present for a typical human being. There are plenty of times that are better for the kind of person who writes history books, but that is a very different proposition.

bollu 6y ago
Where can I read more about murder in hunter gatherer societies? That sounds fascinating
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  I can’t recall where I read that 40% number, unfortunately. And boiling such a wide range of social experiences down to a single number is eventually going to get me in a lot of trouble with anthropologists. Here’s a decent breakdown of the evidence for various state and non-state ancient societies[0]. Obviously there is some significant overlap between state and non-state societies, but in general the violent death rate in ancient societies is really high compared to even the 1800s, an era we consider violent by modern standards. 0: https://ourworldindata.org/ethnographic-and-archaeological-evidence-on-violent-deaths https://ourworldindata.org/ethnographic-and-archaeological-e...
Ar-Curunir 6y ago
Your statistics for adult mortality in hunter-gatherer societies is contradicted by this article: https://www.jstor.org/stable/25434609 https://www.jstor.org/stable/25434609 That study indicates that violence-based mortality is high in a few hunter-gatherer societies, but not in all of them, and also not in societies adjacent to these.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  This is a hotly contested subject in anthropology, so it will be pretty easy to find dueling sources about the precise rate of violent death in various pre-agriculture societies. And you know what? It doesn't matter. The exact percentage of the population that got murdered is only one portion of the basic thesis that the present is the best time for the average human being to be alive ever. While the typical ancient adult may or may not have been murdered, the average ancient human would be dead before their 15th birthday due to disease (most common), malnutrition, or predation. The worst countries today for infant mortality are in central Africa, with countries like Chad, Nigeria, and Somalia averaging a heart breaking ~11% mortality rate for those under the age of five. While I wouldn't run around shouting "this is fine and we should do nothing about it" compared to the entirety of human existence this is an astounding stat. There are royal families a few centuries ago that did worse than 11%. No, these benefits are not evenly distributed. All in, you'd much rather be born in the US or the EU than in say, Chad. And quality of life does not improve linearly; you would much rather be a hunter gatherer than someone in an ancient Greek polis, where you were both more likely to be enslaved and where you'd probably live an even shorter and more disease ridden life. But if you had to pick any point in time to be a random, average person, now is the best time in all of human history to pick.