9 ms·

Tesla was over promising like Nikola from when before it was cool.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
Nikola has CGI and a truck they rolled down a hill. Tesla has 3 factories on two continents pumping out ~500k cars per year, 1 million+ cars on the road, and two more factories under construction. If you can't see the difference ... I don't know what to tell you. My condolences.
- cma 6y ago
  Remember the solar shingles at the SolarCity acquisition presentation? Non-functional aspirational mock-ups to squeeze through a deal to bail out family.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - wuickvomment 6y ago
    I worked at solar city for a couple of months last year. The solar shingles are bought from as panels from China, disassembled and then put together anew. I was personally in charge of testing each shingle worked so I know they take solar power and convert it. A lot of the shingles would crack (we had boxes full of junk ones) but overall I think they are manufacturing a real product (even if it’s just a snazzy upgrade of Chinese panels)
  - zwily 6y ago
    And Tesla is actually selling those solar shingles today. Good example.
    - itsoktocry 6y ago
      No they are not. Show us where they sell those slate or terracotta solar tiles they demonstrated. They are sourcing pure black tiles from China, that anyone can buy. That's it.
      - DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
        Why do you want an older prototype when there is something in production right now with much better specs and pricing? They have obviously iterated on the product and is now on version 3. > They are sourcing pure black tiles from China, that anyone can buy. Wait, there's someone else on the market selling solar roof tiles in the US with a 30 year warranty and rated to survive hits from 1.75" diameter hail and 166 mph winds? This is the first time I am hearing of it! Surely if it is all just bought from an upstream supplier surely someone else can also make bank buying it in bulk and reselling it undercutting Tesla. I would be interested to see a link to this supplier/installer. Thanks.
        cma 6y ago
        I think he is referring to this, they seem to come from Changzhou, where Tesla has no plant: https://l0dl1j3lc42iebd82042pgl2-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/01/roof-tile-label-1200x900.jpg https://l0dl1j3lc42iebd82042pgl2-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/01/29/does-tesla-make-solar-glass-roof-tile-in-its-buffalo-factory-or-in-china/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/01/29/does-tesla-make-solar... Maybe you can't buy them elsewhere in the US because Tesla has an exclusive distributorship deal. That's very different than what was presented during the solar city acquisition, and billion in subsidies for the New York plant... You can also buy the Boring Company's state of the art brick machine invention on Ali Baba. The cyber quad was a Yamaha four wheeler with some steel panels and I believe a motor setup from someone else's electric bike.
  - DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
    You can literally buy a Solar Roof right now and they are hiring installers around the country. Their solar roof sales tripled in the last quarter compared to the quarter prior to that. I suppose all those home-owners are perfectly happy paying $32k+ for "non-functional aspirational mock-ups".
    - cma 6y ago
      They had to grow the shingles to near panel size.
- gamblor956 6y ago
  Tesla sold less than 400k cars last year. For comparison, Toyota sold more than 10.4 million cars in 2019. Ford sold more F150s in 2019 than Tesla has sold cars in the past 3 years.
  - DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
    Tesla sold ~50k cars in 2015. They sold ~250k cars last year. They are on track to sell 500k this year. See a trend there? And they just laid out concrete plans on how to grow by ~50% annually over the next 10 years. You are on hackernews. Surely you know how compounded growth works. Where do you think all this added market share comes from? Toyota's sales dropped by over 20% this year compared to the same time last year. Ford's global sales dropped over 30% this year and they lost billions of dollars. In the same time period, in the midst of a global pandemic, and having to shut down their main factory for over 8 weeks, Tesla's deliveries grew 20% YoY in the first half of 2020. The Model 3 outsold even the Camry and Accord in California earlier this year. "The horse-breeder laughs at the automobile man because he thinks no one can afford to buy one. Where is the horse breeder today?"
    - gamblor956 6y ago
      You're not describing compounded growth, you're describing S-curve growth, meaning that they're close to plateauing. Based on numbers out of Europe, it appears that Tesla has already nearly saturated the market of potential upper-class EV buyers, barring the actual introduction of a $25k EV with 500+ miles of range, or substantial upgrades to the interiors of their cars. Toyota's sales dropped by over 20% this year compared to the same time last year. Ford's global sales dropped over 30% this year and they lost billions of dollars. True, as did Tesla's sales (see linked pdf below for % sales reduction for 2020). Notably, Tesla's profits were (again) due to higher regulatory credit sales to other car companies. Indeed, this continues the trend of Tesla recording a profit only in quarters in which it is able to make regulatory credit sales. And while Ford reported a loss on vehicle sales...like Tesla...they similarly reported a Q2 profit due to non-vehicle income (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/ford-f-earnings-q2-2020.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/ford-f-earnings-q2-2020.html). Tesla's deliveries grew 20% YoY in the first half of 2020. Yes, it's also a common complaint on the Tesla forums that cars built in 2019 weren't deliverable for months due to shoddy work requiring weeks or months of fixes. It's not surprising that deliveries would grow in 2020 as they finally had the time to fix the cars they already built so they could actually deliver them. Notably, their YoY numbers for H12020 for California are down almost 19%. The Model 3 outsold even the Camry and Accord in California earlier this year. This is false. Tesla reported 43,706 new Model 3 registrations in Q1+Q2 2020, while Toyota reported 43,821 new Camry registrations for the same period. (https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-REVISED.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-..., https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20....) The horse-breeder laughs at the automobile man because he thinks no one can afford to buy one. Where is the horse breeder today?" Horse breeders are better off today than they were back then. Horses cost more than cars. And with all due respect, the guy who said that quote knew jack shit about the rarity with which people actually used horses for traveling in the U.S. Most people outside of rural America didn't have space for a horse. Cars took off precisely because they were easier to maintain and store than horses. Indeed, the comparison is somewhat apt but in a different manner than you intended: EVs are the horses in this situation: most people don't have the means to charge EVs at home (or the money to afford the cost of installing a charger), nor do they have the spare time to spend hours charging their EVs, which severely limits the market of people who can buy EVs. For the foreseeable future, regular ICE cars are still far more convenient...as they were against horses more than a century ago.
- itsoktocry 6y ago
  >If you can't see the difference And Theranos was testing people's blood. Just not with the technology they claimed to have.
  - DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
    So what is your point? Are you saying that Tesla is outsourcing manufacturing or something? Are you serious? You can literally visit one of their factories and see the cars being made. My Model 3 gets 310 miles on a charge as they "claimed" it has, while no other manufacturer's EV gets even close. It goes 0-60 in under 4 seconds now while it was closer to 4.4 when I bought it. It charges at 250kW as "claimed". The UX on their display is super-smooth compared to clunky screens and buttons/dials on legacy auto's cars. What are these technologies that you say they are claiming to have but do not have?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

Nikola has CGI and a truck they rolled down a hill. Tesla has 3 factories on two continents pumping out ~500k cars per year, 1 million+ cars on the road, and two more factories under construction. If you can't see the difference ... I don't know what to tell you. My condolences.

cma 6y ago
Remember the solar shingles at the SolarCity acquisition presentation? Non-functional aspirational mock-ups to squeeze through a deal to bail out family.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- wuickvomment 6y ago
  I worked at solar city for a couple of months last year. The solar shingles are bought from as panels from China, disassembled and then put together anew. I was personally in charge of testing each shingle worked so I know they take solar power and convert it. A lot of the shingles would crack (we had boxes full of junk ones) but overall I think they are manufacturing a real product (even if it’s just a snazzy upgrade of Chinese panels)
- zwily 6y ago
  And Tesla is actually selling those solar shingles today. Good example.
  - itsoktocry 6y ago
    No they are not. Show us where they sell those slate or terracotta solar tiles they demonstrated. They are sourcing pure black tiles from China, that anyone can buy. That's it.
    - DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
      Why do you want an older prototype when there is something in production right now with much better specs and pricing? They have obviously iterated on the product and is now on version 3. > They are sourcing pure black tiles from China, that anyone can buy. Wait, there's someone else on the market selling solar roof tiles in the US with a 30 year warranty and rated to survive hits from 1.75" diameter hail and 166 mph winds? This is the first time I am hearing of it! Surely if it is all just bought from an upstream supplier surely someone else can also make bank buying it in bulk and reselling it undercutting Tesla. I would be interested to see a link to this supplier/installer. Thanks.
      - cma 6y ago
        I think he is referring to this, they seem to come from Changzhou, where Tesla has no plant: https://l0dl1j3lc42iebd82042pgl2-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/01/roof-tile-label-1200x900.jpg https://l0dl1j3lc42iebd82042pgl2-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/01/29/does-tesla-make-solar-glass-roof-tile-in-its-buffalo-factory-or-in-china/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/01/29/does-tesla-make-solar... Maybe you can't buy them elsewhere in the US because Tesla has an exclusive distributorship deal. That's very different than what was presented during the solar city acquisition, and billion in subsidies for the New York plant... You can also buy the Boring Company's state of the art brick machine invention on Ali Baba. The cyber quad was a Yamaha four wheeler with some steel panels and I believe a motor setup from someone else's electric bike.
- DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
  You can literally buy a Solar Roof right now and they are hiring installers around the country. Their solar roof sales tripled in the last quarter compared to the quarter prior to that. I suppose all those home-owners are perfectly happy paying $32k+ for "non-functional aspirational mock-ups".
  - cma 6y ago
    They had to grow the shingles to near panel size.
gamblor956 6y ago
Tesla sold less than 400k cars last year. For comparison, Toyota sold more than 10.4 million cars in 2019. Ford sold more F150s in 2019 than Tesla has sold cars in the past 3 years.
- DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
  Tesla sold ~50k cars in 2015. They sold ~250k cars last year. They are on track to sell 500k this year. See a trend there? And they just laid out concrete plans on how to grow by ~50% annually over the next 10 years. You are on hackernews. Surely you know how compounded growth works. Where do you think all this added market share comes from? Toyota's sales dropped by over 20% this year compared to the same time last year. Ford's global sales dropped over 30% this year and they lost billions of dollars. In the same time period, in the midst of a global pandemic, and having to shut down their main factory for over 8 weeks, Tesla's deliveries grew 20% YoY in the first half of 2020. The Model 3 outsold even the Camry and Accord in California earlier this year. "The horse-breeder laughs at the automobile man because he thinks no one can afford to buy one. Where is the horse breeder today?"
  - gamblor956 6y ago
    You're not describing compounded growth, you're describing S-curve growth, meaning that they're close to plateauing. Based on numbers out of Europe, it appears that Tesla has already nearly saturated the market of potential upper-class EV buyers, barring the actual introduction of a $25k EV with 500+ miles of range, or substantial upgrades to the interiors of their cars. Toyota's sales dropped by over 20% this year compared to the same time last year. Ford's global sales dropped over 30% this year and they lost billions of dollars. True, as did Tesla's sales (see linked pdf below for % sales reduction for 2020). Notably, Tesla's profits were (again) due to higher regulatory credit sales to other car companies. Indeed, this continues the trend of Tesla recording a profit only in quarters in which it is able to make regulatory credit sales. And while Ford reported a loss on vehicle sales...like Tesla...they similarly reported a Q2 profit due to non-vehicle income (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/ford-f-earnings-q2-2020.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/ford-f-earnings-q2-2020.html). Tesla's deliveries grew 20% YoY in the first half of 2020. Yes, it's also a common complaint on the Tesla forums that cars built in 2019 weren't deliverable for months due to shoddy work requiring weeks or months of fixes. It's not surprising that deliveries would grow in 2020 as they finally had the time to fix the cars they already built so they could actually deliver them. Notably, their YoY numbers for H12020 for California are down almost 19%. The Model 3 outsold even the Camry and Accord in California earlier this year. This is false. Tesla reported 43,706 new Model 3 registrations in Q1+Q2 2020, while Toyota reported 43,821 new Camry registrations for the same period. (https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-REVISED.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-..., https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20.pdf https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-20....) The horse-breeder laughs at the automobile man because he thinks no one can afford to buy one. Where is the horse breeder today?" Horse breeders are better off today than they were back then. Horses cost more than cars. And with all due respect, the guy who said that quote knew jack shit about the rarity with which people actually used horses for traveling in the U.S. Most people outside of rural America didn't have space for a horse. Cars took off precisely because they were easier to maintain and store than horses. Indeed, the comparison is somewhat apt but in a different manner than you intended: EVs are the horses in this situation: most people don't have the means to charge EVs at home (or the money to afford the cost of installing a charger), nor do they have the spare time to spend hours charging their EVs, which severely limits the market of people who can buy EVs. For the foreseeable future, regular ICE cars are still far more convenient...as they were against horses more than a century ago.
itsoktocry 6y ago
>If you can't see the difference And Theranos was testing people's blood. Just not with the technology they claimed to have.
- DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
  So what is your point? Are you saying that Tesla is outsourcing manufacturing or something? Are you serious? You can literally visit one of their factories and see the cars being made. My Model 3 gets 310 miles on a charge as they "claimed" it has, while no other manufacturer's EV gets even close. It goes 0-60 in under 4 seconds now while it was closer to 4.4 when I bought it. It charges at 250kW as "claimed". The UX on their display is super-smooth compared to clunky screens and buttons/dials on legacy auto's cars. What are these technologies that you say they are claiming to have but do not have?