3 ms·
> all of the major strategic competitors of the USA have the same core interests They don't, actually. Russia wants to sow chaos in the USA and Europe, becaus
by jacques_chester 6y ago
> all of the major strategic competitors of the USA have the same core interests
They don't, actually.
Russia wants to sow chaos in the USA and Europe, because these powers constrain its territorial ambitions. They want strife in China too, but have less ability to sow it there. They want Iran excluded from the international oil trade to improve prices, since they rely heavily on oil to maintain their otherwise decrepit gangster economy. They also border on Iran; normalisation between Iran and the west would open the door to further geographical encirclement.
Saudi Arabia wants Trump to win because he won't interfere their war in Yemen and ignores their support for Wahabbist extremism. They also benefit from Iran's being weakened in the oil markets generally and the middle-east specifically.
Iran just wants not to starve and/or collapse into a viscious civil war turbo-charged by Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Europe doesn't want Iran to collapse, because it would trigger a gigantic refugee crisis. It would also disrupt the global oil and gas markets, making Russia's leverage via gas pipelines more potent. Especially for NATO states in the east.
China wants stability in trade and latitude to pursue its slow-rolling program of dominating Asia. The current administration has been bad for trade, but has neglected to support diplomatic order. China has pushed hard into the South China Sea (throwing an unexpected, massive burden onto stalwart allies, Australia) and into buying votes in the UN's General Assembly. A Biden administration would slow that down. I suspect that China slightly prefers Trump and that the idea that it prefers Biden is a talking point invented for Trump's benefit.
So no. The USA's rivals and allies want different outcomes.
- scarmig 6y agoI hesitated before writing that sentence for exactly that reason: it's overbroad. But, within the narrow scope of Russia's and China's interference in US elections, they both fundamentally want a weakened US so as to more easily dominate their near abroad. At the high level, I agree that they probably mildly prefer Trump over Biden, for reasons of Biden being much more able to work with our regional allies to constrain them. But their ability to effect that result is small compared to their ability to sow chaos. And chaos also serves their ends: a world where Biden is having to deal with domestic unrest and sharp partisan divisions is a world where he's constrained in his ability to make the plausible commitments needed for international alliances, which are in large part based on trust and faith.