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Honestly, it's hard to predict. I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads help

Honestly, it's hard to predict. I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads helped him beat the odds more than conspiracies of Russian interference. Right now, I see significantly more Trump ads online than Biden ads. The polls show that Biden has a large lead over Trump, but Biden's lack of online ads could skew things. Another odd thing: The Democrats are only doing phone canvassing, not door-to-door. Door-to-door is much more effective than phone. I don't know about the Republicans, but after seeing pictures of packed rallies, I suspect they will do some door-to-door canvassing. So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.

sleepysysadmin 6y ago
>So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. Polls are vastly inaccurate even when there's just 2 options. For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear. >But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins. This is the interesting subject I think. I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. That it will be Biden winning.
- rsfern 6y ago
  > I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. Citation needed, care to link to some comments making unqualified statements to this effect? I haven’t seen anything like this here. On the other hand, I think a more mainstream sentiment is that people will not accept a premature declaration of victory on Nov 4 before all the mail-in votes are counted, but will accept the legitimate winner one the election is certified.
- gwbas1c 6y ago
  > For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear. You just need to look at state-by-state polls. Those are usually accurate, except for states where the election is very close.

sleepysysadmin 6y ago

>So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. Polls are vastly inaccurate even when there's just 2 options. For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear. >But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins. This is the interesting subject I think. I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. That it will be Biden winning.

rsfern 6y ago
> I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. Citation needed, care to link to some comments making unqualified statements to this effect? I haven’t seen anything like this here. On the other hand, I think a more mainstream sentiment is that people will not accept a premature declaration of victory on Nov 4 before all the mail-in votes are counted, but will accept the legitimate winner one the election is certified.
gwbas1c 6y ago
> For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear. You just need to look at state-by-state polls. Those are usually accurate, except for states where the election is very close.