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I fear it already is too late. China was brave enough to take Hong Kong in one swift motion. The international response has been so weak that China is already e

by foepys 6y ago

I fear it already is too late. China was brave enough to take Hong Kong in one swift motion. The international response has been so weak that China is already eyeing Taiwan. Just yesterday they flew with 18 fighter jets and a bomber across the unofficial but mutually agreed border between Taiwan and China. This is unprecedented. If the situation doesn't deescalate quickly, we might see a war soon and if push comes to shove, the US could be in the middle of it.

justicezyx 6y ago
> Just yesterday they flew with 18 fighter jets and a bomber across the unofficial but mutually agreed border between Taiwan and China. There is no official border between these 2 "countries". They both officially claim they own the the other. And China has made it plain that, as long as Taiwan is not pursuing independence, everything can be made as usual. That's backed by many popular demand from the ordinary people. It's like US wont allow USSR to deploy nukes in Cuba. As long as you Cuba dont do that, US are OK with the communism on the island. Otherwise, sorry, you are risking the whole life for this whatever ideology you are pursuing.
crocodiletears 6y ago
The US could just extract a few key TSMC engineers, turn its facilities into a crater, and back out. I don't think anyone wants to start WWIII with China over an exiled Chinese government living on an island that's less than 200 miles from the Chinese mainland other than an occupied Taiwanese people. I'm not even certain that the US could land a force in the area, given China's investment in defensive missile installations.
- foepys 6y ago
  Appeasement didn't work back in the 1930s and won't work now. Let China take Taiwan and they'll probably look at Vietnam or even South Korea or Japan.
  - crocodiletears 6y ago
    It's not appeasement. It's just not worth it. Wasting American blood in a region built up to be defensible specifically against the Americans to save a government that mostly only exists out of spite seems like a poor investment. The kind of withdrawal I described would likely be accompanied by the expulsion of all non-immigrant Chinese nationals, a military build-up in friendly regional territories, and deployments in anticipation of blockading Chinese energy imports.
    - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
      What govt do you mean exists only out of spite? You can't mean Taiwan. It's a real country. They are a democracy.
      - crocodiletears 6y ago
        It is a real country, with a real Democracy. But if it weren't for an implicit threat of US intervention, it likely wouldn't be. My point is that its existence strikes me more as an artifact of America's of geopolitical posturing and, a policy of containment left over from the cold war than anything else.
  - platinumrad 6y ago
    This is delusional Cold War "domino effect" thinking but somehow even stupider because there was at least some credibility to the idea that communism would be a popular enough ideology to be adopted in such a fashion. Please tell me why China would ever have any interest in invading and occupying any of those countries.
    - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
      China wants to control everything that could affect them. Eventually they will fight to take over Taiwan. They will use economic power to force Australia to do what they want also.
  - Mizza 6y ago
- SkyMarshal 6y ago
  The US may not need to land a force there, just ensure that China can't. Make sure Taiwan has enough missiles, subs, mines, etc to repel any PLA landing force, making it prohibitively expensive and embarrassing for China to attempt.
  - crocodiletears 6y ago
    That's true. I honestly think an out and out invasion of Taiwan is exceedingly unlikely, when the CCP has the latitude to exert decades of concentrate soft power to render Taiwan a functional vassal long before Chinese boots hit the ground.
    - SkyMarshal 6y ago
      That would be by far the most sensible and effective strategy for China to pursue - subjugate your adversary without fighting, as Sun Tzu advised. And they were until Xi made himself dictator for life. Under Xi it seems like the CCP has become unecessarily less rational and more insecure.
- literallycancer 6y ago
  Isn't their only carrier retrofitted Russian tech?
  - crocodiletears 6y ago
    Yes, but my understanding of their defensive strategy for tbe south China Sea is largely contingent on their ability to saturate a carrier group's defenses with missiles and torpedoes, and then fire a few more in order to score kill shots (I unfortunately can't find the source where I read this). It's a poor strategy for power projection, but theoretically it's a comparatively economical method of negating America's capacity to power project in the region. Here's a National Interest article on the dialogue around it: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/aircraft-carriers-vs-chinas-missiles-military-contest-our-time-59247 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/aircraft-carriers-vs-...

by foepys 6y ago

justicezyx 6y ago

> Just yesterday they flew with 18 fighter jets and a bomber across the unofficial but mutually agreed border between Taiwan and China. There is no official border between these 2 "countries". They both officially claim they own the the other. And China has made it plain that, as long as Taiwan is not pursuing independence, everything can be made as usual. That's backed by many popular demand from the ordinary people. It's like US wont allow USSR to deploy nukes in Cuba. As long as you Cuba dont do that, US are OK with the communism on the island. Otherwise, sorry, you are risking the whole life for this whatever ideology you are pursuing.

crocodiletears 6y ago

The US could just extract a few key TSMC engineers, turn its facilities into a crater, and back out. I don't think anyone wants to start WWIII with China over an exiled Chinese government living on an island that's less than 200 miles from the Chinese mainland other than an occupied Taiwanese people. I'm not even certain that the US could land a force in the area, given China's investment in defensive missile installations.

foepys 6y ago
Appeasement didn't work back in the 1930s and won't work now. Let China take Taiwan and they'll probably look at Vietnam or even South Korea or Japan.
- crocodiletears 6y ago
  It's not appeasement. It's just not worth it. Wasting American blood in a region built up to be defensible specifically against the Americans to save a government that mostly only exists out of spite seems like a poor investment. The kind of withdrawal I described would likely be accompanied by the expulsion of all non-immigrant Chinese nationals, a military build-up in friendly regional territories, and deployments in anticipation of blockading Chinese energy imports.
  - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
    What govt do you mean exists only out of spite? You can't mean Taiwan. It's a real country. They are a democracy.
    - crocodiletears 6y ago
      It is a real country, with a real Democracy. But if it weren't for an implicit threat of US intervention, it likely wouldn't be. My point is that its existence strikes me more as an artifact of America's of geopolitical posturing and, a policy of containment left over from the cold war than anything else.
- platinumrad 6y ago
  This is delusional Cold War "domino effect" thinking but somehow even stupider because there was at least some credibility to the idea that communism would be a popular enough ideology to be adopted in such a fashion. Please tell me why China would ever have any interest in invading and occupying any of those countries.
  - NotSammyHagar 6y ago
    China wants to control everything that could affect them. Eventually they will fight to take over Taiwan. They will use economic power to force Australia to do what they want also.
- Mizza 6y ago
SkyMarshal 6y ago
The US may not need to land a force there, just ensure that China can't. Make sure Taiwan has enough missiles, subs, mines, etc to repel any PLA landing force, making it prohibitively expensive and embarrassing for China to attempt.
- crocodiletears 6y ago
  That's true. I honestly think an out and out invasion of Taiwan is exceedingly unlikely, when the CCP has the latitude to exert decades of concentrate soft power to render Taiwan a functional vassal long before Chinese boots hit the ground.
  - SkyMarshal 6y ago
    That would be by far the most sensible and effective strategy for China to pursue - subjugate your adversary without fighting, as Sun Tzu advised. And they were until Xi made himself dictator for life. Under Xi it seems like the CCP has become unecessarily less rational and more insecure.
literallycancer 6y ago
Isn't their only carrier retrofitted Russian tech?
- crocodiletears 6y ago
  Yes, but my understanding of their defensive strategy for tbe south China Sea is largely contingent on their ability to saturate a carrier group's defenses with missiles and torpedoes, and then fire a few more in order to score kill shots (I unfortunately can't find the source where I read this). It's a poor strategy for power projection, but theoretically it's a comparatively economical method of negating America's capacity to power project in the region. Here's a National Interest article on the dialogue around it: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/aircraft-carriers-vs-chinas-missiles-military-contest-our-time-59247 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/aircraft-carriers-vs-...