5 ms·

As an outside observer, I sympathize. Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December?

TMWNN 6y ago
>Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December? Nationwide violent rioting[1] after Trump wins more comfortably than expected, including nationwide swings toward him even in states he doesn't win, like California, New York, and Illinois. Trump wins Minnesota, and does way, way better than expected in Washington and Oregon (the latter possibly being a surprise Trump win). [1] As in 2016
- sleepysysadmin 6y ago
  Do you think Trump will use the insurrection act?
  - TMWNN 6y ago
    If necessary. He'll cite the 1957 Little Rock and 1992 Los Angeles precedents.
gwbas1c 6y ago
Honestly, it's hard to predict. I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads helped him beat the odds more than conspiracies of Russian interference. Right now, I see significantly more Trump ads online than Biden ads. The polls show that Biden has a large lead over Trump, but Biden's lack of online ads could skew things. Another odd thing: The Democrats are only doing phone canvassing, not door-to-door. Door-to-door is much more effective than phone. I don't know about the Republicans, but after seeing pictures of packed rallies, I suspect they will do some door-to-door canvassing. So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.
- sleepysysadmin 6y ago
  >So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. Polls are vastly inaccurate even when there's just 2 options. For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear. >But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins. This is the interesting subject I think. I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. That it will be Biden winning.
  - rsfern 6y ago
    > I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. Citation needed, care to link to some comments making unqualified statements to this effect? I haven’t seen anything like this here. On the other hand, I think a more mainstream sentiment is that people will not accept a premature declaration of victory on Nov 4 before all the mail-in votes are counted, but will accept the legitimate winner one the election is certified.
  - gwbas1c 6y ago
    > For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear. You just need to look at state-by-state polls. Those are usually accurate, except for states where the election is very close.

>Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December? Nationwide violent rioting[1] after Trump wins more comfortably than expected, including nationwide swings toward him even in states he doesn't win, like California, New York, and Illinois. Trump wins Minnesota, and does way, way better than expected in Washington and Oregon (the latter possibly being a surprise Trump win). [1] As in 2016

sleepysysadmin 6y ago
Do you think Trump will use the insurrection act?
- TMWNN 6y ago
  If necessary. He'll cite the 1957 Little Rock and 1992 Los Angeles precedents.

gwbas1c 6y ago

Honestly, it's hard to predict. I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads helped him beat the odds more than conspiracies of Russian interference. Right now, I see significantly more Trump ads online than Biden ads. The polls show that Biden has a large lead over Trump, but Biden's lack of online ads could skew things. Another odd thing: The Democrats are only doing phone canvassing, not door-to-door. Door-to-door is much more effective than phone. I don't know about the Republicans, but after seeing pictures of packed rallies, I suspect they will do some door-to-door canvassing. So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.

sleepysysadmin 6y ago
>So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. Polls are vastly inaccurate even when there's just 2 options. For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear. >But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins. This is the interesting subject I think. I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. That it will be Biden winning.
- rsfern 6y ago
  > I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. Citation needed, care to link to some comments making unqualified statements to this effect? I haven’t seen anything like this here. On the other hand, I think a more mainstream sentiment is that people will not accept a premature declaration of victory on Nov 4 before all the mail-in votes are counted, but will accept the legitimate winner one the election is certified.
- gwbas1c 6y ago
  > For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear. You just need to look at state-by-state polls. Those are usually accurate, except for states where the election is very close.