3 ms·
20% is nowhere near enough to explain the patterns we're seeing. ... according to epidemiologists who have been utterly discredited, no. According to other epi
by thu2111 6y ago
20% is nowhere near enough to explain the patterns we're seeing.
... according to epidemiologists who have been utterly discredited, no. According to other epidemiologists (and just lay amateurs) who have built better models, 20% appears to be about the right threshold when taking into account non-homogenous social mixing and t-cell immunity.
But you don't really need anything fancy to figure this out. Just look at the observed data, messy and contradictory though it is. When antibodies reach 20% the epidemic stops, in many places not just NY.