8 ms·

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

51 points by blacksqr 6y ago

0xfaded 6y ago
33.6% of requested ballots by 65 and over voters, a group which represent about 18% of total voters. I hope my generation is planning to vote in person. 65 and up 3,111,071 33.6
- greenduck 6y ago
  Interesting. I wonder if it says more about who feels like they are able to safely show up to the polls? I am in the 18-25 demographic and many people I talk with are concerned about the integrity of the USPS handling their vote after the crisis caused by DeJoy. They are scared of what shenanigans might be pulled with their mail in ballots and plan to show up in person to avoid that. Even at the cost of their health. You might be looking at the tradeoff of people weighing their vote and their health risks.
  - AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
    > They are scared of what shenanigans might be pulled with their mail in ballots and plan to show up in person to avoid that I'd like to personally thank my fellow Americans for helping to bring the country to a point where we can no longer trust the fucking mail. Good work everyone.
    - pc86 6y ago
      This unnecessary and unhelpful comment has no place on HN.
  - spacephysics 6y ago
    I’m in a close demographic and have the same sentiment.
  - chrisweekly 6y ago
    There are secure drop-off boxes for ballots.
    - tssva 6y ago
      I received my absentee ballot in the mail today and will be dropping it in the ballot box at my county registrar's office tomorrow.
      - chrisweekly 6y ago
        Excellent! Planning to do same soon.
  - ragnese 6y ago
    That's exactly my point of view as well. I'm not in the higher risk age ranges, so at this point I feel it's almost a civic duty for me to vote in person so that others who must vote by mail can do so and have their votes count.
    - jliptzin 6y ago
      You can usually drop off a mail-in ballot yourself too and avoid the mail.
- bluntfang 6y ago
  i hope they survive the next few months
- dqv 6y ago
  > I hope my generation is planning to vote in person. Why is that? BallotTrax lets me see exactly where my ballot is and if it has been received. It's about the same level of transparency as inserting my ballot into the polling machine. The only difference being that at the polling machine I can see the number of counted ballots increment.
  - prophesi 6y ago
    Because, given the current stats shown here on mail-in voting, most of OP's generation has not voted. And so they're hoping they'll at least be voting in person.
greenduck 6y ago
Regardless of what party you support, you've got to be impressed by the level of turnout this year. If we are judging by early voting alone, this is going to be a historic election. I hope that media outlets are careful on election day given the amount of mail in ballots that will be cast. The vote may not be certified for weeks after election day and I hope the media understands the responsibility they have in not bowing into claims that it somehow says something about the legitimacy of the results.
- spacephysics 6y ago
  Unfortunately, on both sides of the media aisle, that is a far-fetched fantasy. I too would hope, but in reality, the delay will only add to the turmoil. Regardless who leads on Election Day (or night, when the physical polls are counted), we’ll see civil strife. Hunker down, avoid certain cities with a propensity for non-peaceful civil unrest, and wait.
- HhE3334R7hf1lLF 6y ago
  Having recently moved from a northern blue state to a southern red state, I have one foot in a very liberal social circle up north, and another in a very conservative social circle in the south. My friends in the north have already made up their minds that they won't accept a Trump-Pence victory. My friends in the south have likewise made up their minds that they won't accept a Biden-Harris victory. The two sides talk and think very similarly to each other, and they're making similar plans. This will definitely be a popcorn.gif kind of election.
  - greenduck 6y ago
    Maybe you're in a bubble? I work at one of the "liberal elite universities" if you believe the media rhetoric and nobody around me is just straight up ready to deny the election if their favorite team doesn't win. Everybody I have contact with understands that it's a close race and isn't sure who is going to win. They understand that it is possible for Trump to win and not even that unlikely.
    - 6y ago
beaner 6y ago
The color chosen for the map makes it seem like it's saying something about the party that's winning in each state, when it seems to be just an indicator of the number of votes received. Maybe it should be green or something instead.
- cardamomo 6y ago
  I agree. I would also like it to show which states are not reporting yet on a different color from those reporting 0.
- korneliov444 6y ago
  The issue can be reported here: https://github.com/ElectProject/Early-Vote-2020G https://github.com/ElectProject/Early-Vote-2020G
- frazbin 6y ago
  Might be a UX mistake to show the states as blue.. that's what I thought first-- but look at the tallies below: Party Count Percent Democrats 84,833 55.1 Republicans 24,210 15.7 So the earliest mail in voters are heavily skewed Democratic. Numbers like that make me want to say that Republicans are afraid of voting by mail this election, but it's way to early to say.. maybe it's just Democratic fear of the USPS slowing up ballots.
  - pc86 6y ago
    Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 7 points in the US overall, based on registration. Democrats are also much more likely to utilize mail-in and early voting than Republicans. Anecdotally, I know a lot of Republicans who believe COVID is a scam, won't wear a mask, etc., and so plan to vote in person as usual. These three things together, it's not at all surprising to me to see 4:1 and 5:1 ratios in mail-in ballot requests so far.
  - beaner 6y ago
    Yes, it is true that the earliest mail in voters are skewed democratic. But that is not the point that I'm making. The scale beneath the map implies that the color concentration is not based on party voting ratios, but on absolute count of all votes.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
rtx 6y ago
Voting is good, vote often. Don't be ashamed of whoever you vote for. You know what's best for you.
- me_me_me 6y ago
  > You know what's best for you. I am too cynical - said me washing down McBurger with Coke before taking a drag of my Marlboro.
  - jagannathtech 6y ago
    Well, you do know, consciously atleast. Knowing and the habits are different parts of the brain though ;)
sleepysysadmin 6y ago
As an outside observer, I sympathize. Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December?
- TMWNN 6y ago
  >Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December? Nationwide violent rioting[1] after Trump wins more comfortably than expected, including nationwide swings toward him even in states he doesn't win, like California, New York, and Illinois. Trump wins Minnesota, and does way, way better than expected in Washington and Oregon (the latter possibly being a surprise Trump win). [1] As in 2016
  - sleepysysadmin 6y ago
    Do you think Trump will use the insurrection act?
    - TMWNN 6y ago
      If necessary. He'll cite the 1957 Little Rock and 1992 Los Angeles precedents.
- gwbas1c 6y ago
  Honestly, it's hard to predict. I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads helped him beat the odds more than conspiracies of Russian interference. Right now, I see significantly more Trump ads online than Biden ads. The polls show that Biden has a large lead over Trump, but Biden's lack of online ads could skew things. Another odd thing: The Democrats are only doing phone canvassing, not door-to-door. Door-to-door is much more effective than phone. I don't know about the Republicans, but after seeing pictures of packed rallies, I suspect they will do some door-to-door canvassing. So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.

51 points by blacksqr 6y ago

33.6% of requested ballots by 65 and over voters, a group which represent about 18% of total voters. I hope my generation is planning to vote in person. 65 and up 3,111,071 33.6

greenduck 6y ago
Interesting. I wonder if it says more about who feels like they are able to safely show up to the polls? I am in the 18-25 demographic and many people I talk with are concerned about the integrity of the USPS handling their vote after the crisis caused by DeJoy. They are scared of what shenanigans might be pulled with their mail in ballots and plan to show up in person to avoid that. Even at the cost of their health. You might be looking at the tradeoff of people weighing their vote and their health risks.
- AnIdiotOnTheNet 6y ago
  > They are scared of what shenanigans might be pulled with their mail in ballots and plan to show up in person to avoid that I'd like to personally thank my fellow Americans for helping to bring the country to a point where we can no longer trust the fucking mail. Good work everyone.
  - pc86 6y ago
    This unnecessary and unhelpful comment has no place on HN.
- spacephysics 6y ago
  I’m in a close demographic and have the same sentiment.
- chrisweekly 6y ago
  There are secure drop-off boxes for ballots.
  - tssva 6y ago
    I received my absentee ballot in the mail today and will be dropping it in the ballot box at my county registrar's office tomorrow.
    - chrisweekly 6y ago
      Excellent! Planning to do same soon.
- ragnese 6y ago
  That's exactly my point of view as well. I'm not in the higher risk age ranges, so at this point I feel it's almost a civic duty for me to vote in person so that others who must vote by mail can do so and have their votes count.
  - jliptzin 6y ago
    You can usually drop off a mail-in ballot yourself too and avoid the mail.
bluntfang 6y ago
i hope they survive the next few months
dqv 6y ago
> I hope my generation is planning to vote in person. Why is that? BallotTrax lets me see exactly where my ballot is and if it has been received. It's about the same level of transparency as inserting my ballot into the polling machine. The only difference being that at the polling machine I can see the number of counted ballots increment.
- prophesi 6y ago
  Because, given the current stats shown here on mail-in voting, most of OP's generation has not voted. And so they're hoping they'll at least be voting in person.

greenduck 6y ago

Regardless of what party you support, you've got to be impressed by the level of turnout this year. If we are judging by early voting alone, this is going to be a historic election. I hope that media outlets are careful on election day given the amount of mail in ballots that will be cast. The vote may not be certified for weeks after election day and I hope the media understands the responsibility they have in not bowing into claims that it somehow says something about the legitimacy of the results.

spacephysics 6y ago
Unfortunately, on both sides of the media aisle, that is a far-fetched fantasy. I too would hope, but in reality, the delay will only add to the turmoil. Regardless who leads on Election Day (or night, when the physical polls are counted), we’ll see civil strife. Hunker down, avoid certain cities with a propensity for non-peaceful civil unrest, and wait.
HhE3334R7hf1lLF 6y ago
Having recently moved from a northern blue state to a southern red state, I have one foot in a very liberal social circle up north, and another in a very conservative social circle in the south. My friends in the north have already made up their minds that they won't accept a Trump-Pence victory. My friends in the south have likewise made up their minds that they won't accept a Biden-Harris victory. The two sides talk and think very similarly to each other, and they're making similar plans. This will definitely be a popcorn.gif kind of election.
- greenduck 6y ago
  Maybe you're in a bubble? I work at one of the "liberal elite universities" if you believe the media rhetoric and nobody around me is just straight up ready to deny the election if their favorite team doesn't win. Everybody I have contact with understands that it's a close race and isn't sure who is going to win. They understand that it is possible for Trump to win and not even that unlikely.
  - 6y ago

beaner 6y ago

The color chosen for the map makes it seem like it's saying something about the party that's winning in each state, when it seems to be just an indicator of the number of votes received. Maybe it should be green or something instead.

cardamomo 6y ago
I agree. I would also like it to show which states are not reporting yet on a different color from those reporting 0.
korneliov444 6y ago
The issue can be reported here: https://github.com/ElectProject/Early-Vote-2020G https://github.com/ElectProject/Early-Vote-2020G
frazbin 6y ago
Might be a UX mistake to show the states as blue.. that's what I thought first-- but look at the tallies below: Party Count Percent Democrats 84,833 55.1 Republicans 24,210 15.7 So the earliest mail in voters are heavily skewed Democratic. Numbers like that make me want to say that Republicans are afraid of voting by mail this election, but it's way to early to say.. maybe it's just Democratic fear of the USPS slowing up ballots.
- pc86 6y ago
  Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 7 points in the US overall, based on registration. Democrats are also much more likely to utilize mail-in and early voting than Republicans. Anecdotally, I know a lot of Republicans who believe COVID is a scam, won't wear a mask, etc., and so plan to vote in person as usual. These three things together, it's not at all surprising to me to see 4:1 and 5:1 ratios in mail-in ballot requests so far.
- beaner 6y ago
  Yes, it is true that the earliest mail in voters are skewed democratic. But that is not the point that I'm making. The scale beneath the map implies that the color concentration is not based on party voting ratios, but on absolute count of all votes.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

rtx 6y ago

Voting is good, vote often. Don't be ashamed of whoever you vote for. You know what's best for you.

me_me_me 6y ago
> You know what's best for you. I am too cynical - said me washing down McBurger with Coke before taking a drag of my Marlboro.
- jagannathtech 6y ago
  Well, you do know, consciously atleast. Knowing and the habits are different parts of the brain though ;)

sleepysysadmin 6y ago

As an outside observer, I sympathize. Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December?

TMWNN 6y ago
>Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December? Nationwide violent rioting[1] after Trump wins more comfortably than expected, including nationwide swings toward him even in states he doesn't win, like California, New York, and Illinois. Trump wins Minnesota, and does way, way better than expected in Washington and Oregon (the latter possibly being a surprise Trump win). [1] As in 2016
- sleepysysadmin 6y ago
  Do you think Trump will use the insurrection act?
  - TMWNN 6y ago
    If necessary. He'll cite the 1957 Little Rock and 1992 Los Angeles precedents.
gwbas1c 6y ago
Honestly, it's hard to predict. I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads helped him beat the odds more than conspiracies of Russian interference. Right now, I see significantly more Trump ads online than Biden ads. The polls show that Biden has a large lead over Trump, but Biden's lack of online ads could skew things. Another odd thing: The Democrats are only doing phone canvassing, not door-to-door. Door-to-door is much more effective than phone. I don't know about the Republicans, but after seeing pictures of packed rallies, I suspect they will do some door-to-door canvassing. So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win. But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.