4 ms·

Have you considered that your favored interventions are, in addition to being extremely harmful to society in every measurable way, probably also completely ine

Have you considered that your favored interventions are, in addition to being extremely harmful to society in every measurable way, probably also completely ineffective in altering the outcomes? Sweden didn't do a thing and is basically done with this nonsense, presumably for all time from the looks of the plots; Massachusetts is still mostly locked down and has 4x the death rate. Lockdown fetishists should be greeted with "citations needed."

bmn__ 6y ago
> Sweden […] is basically done False, confirmed cases have grown 4.4% since the start of September. > Massachusetts is still mostly locked down and has 4x the death rate [of Sweden] False, us/ma has 1.42‰ and se has 0.58‰. That's a ratio of only 2.45. > "citations needed." https://covid.observer/se/ https://covid.observer/se/ https://covid.observer/us/ma/ https://covid.observer/us/ma/
- jeffreyrogers 6y ago
  > False, confirmed cases have grown 4.4% since the start of September. And yet they've more or less had zero deaths per day since the start of August. So yeah, they basically are done.
  - bmn__ 6y ago
    The correct numbers are 5743 (2020-08-01) → 5865 (2020-09-21), i.e. 122 or a growth of only about 2%, which is indeed very good. Only Ireland, Italy, China, Belgium are better (and 18 outlier countries adding zero to one deaths only because they each have less than 83 deaths absolute). So, following that definition of "done", I agree Sweden meets it. But at what cost? Its deaths per capita quotient is horrendous! The thirteen worst countries are: |deaths 2020-09-21|pop in million|deaths/1000 capita San Marino 42 0.0339 1.24 Peru 31369 32.5105 0.96 Belgium 9950 11.5393 0.86 Andorra 53 0.0771 0.69 Bolivia 7654 11.5131 0.66 Spain 30663 46.7368 0.66 Chile 12379 18.952 0.65 Brazil 137285 211.0495 0.65 Ecuador 11095 17.3737 0.64 United Kingdom 41877 67.5302 0.62 US 199862 329.0649 0.61 Italy 35724 60.5501 0.59 Sweden 5865 10.0364 0.58 The average for that column is 0.12 and the median is 0.04. It's a really bad trade-off for Sweden to let five to sixteen times more people die than usual just to achieve a small growth rate a couple of months into the pandemic; this does not make any sense. For comparison, Germany's growth in deaths in that time frame was also quite small, namely 2.5%, but they have an under average death quotient of only 0.11.
dwaltrip 6y ago
Did you read my parent comment right above? I don't claim to know exactly what the policies should be. And I explicitly stated that hardcore lockdowns that extend for months don't seem like a good idea. I was just trying to push and get some clarity into how just-juan-post thinks about it, as clearly there is some obvious disagreement and I wondered what circumstances they think justify different interventions.

bmn__ 6y ago

> Sweden […] is basically done False, confirmed cases have grown 4.4% since the start of September. > Massachusetts is still mostly locked down and has 4x the death rate [of Sweden] False, us/ma has 1.42‰ and se has 0.58‰. That's a ratio of only 2.45. > "citations needed." https://covid.observer/se/ https://covid.observer/se/ https://covid.observer/us/ma/ https://covid.observer/us/ma/

jeffreyrogers 6y ago
> False, confirmed cases have grown 4.4% since the start of September. And yet they've more or less had zero deaths per day since the start of August. So yeah, they basically are done.
- bmn__ 6y ago
  The correct numbers are 5743 (2020-08-01) → 5865 (2020-09-21), i.e. 122 or a growth of only about 2%, which is indeed very good. Only Ireland, Italy, China, Belgium are better (and 18 outlier countries adding zero to one deaths only because they each have less than 83 deaths absolute). So, following that definition of "done", I agree Sweden meets it. But at what cost? Its deaths per capita quotient is horrendous! The thirteen worst countries are: |deaths 2020-09-21|pop in million|deaths/1000 capita San Marino 42 0.0339 1.24 Peru 31369 32.5105 0.96 Belgium 9950 11.5393 0.86 Andorra 53 0.0771 0.69 Bolivia 7654 11.5131 0.66 Spain 30663 46.7368 0.66 Chile 12379 18.952 0.65 Brazil 137285 211.0495 0.65 Ecuador 11095 17.3737 0.64 United Kingdom 41877 67.5302 0.62 US 199862 329.0649 0.61 Italy 35724 60.5501 0.59 Sweden 5865 10.0364 0.58 The average for that column is 0.12 and the median is 0.04. It's a really bad trade-off for Sweden to let five to sixteen times more people die than usual just to achieve a small growth rate a couple of months into the pandemic; this does not make any sense. For comparison, Germany's growth in deaths in that time frame was also quite small, namely 2.5%, but they have an under average death quotient of only 0.11.

dwaltrip 6y ago

Did you read my parent comment right above? I don't claim to know exactly what the policies should be. And I explicitly stated that hardcore lockdowns that extend for months don't seem like a good idea. I was just trying to push and get some clarity into how just-juan-post thinks about it, as clearly there is some obvious disagreement and I wondered what circumstances they think justify different interventions.