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related article from local Seattle newspaper: https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/09/09/44441906/the-death-of-industrial-seattle https://www.thestranger.com/s

by holler 6y ago

related article from local Seattle newspaper: https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/09/09/44441906/the-death-of-industrial-seattle https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/09/09/44441906/the-dea... "So, Seattle finds itself where Pittsburgh was in the 1970s and Detroit in the 1960s. The city is about to lose a central part of its industrial base. Today, Pittsburgh, the "Steel City," has no steel plants at all." ... "Seattle will finally become fully post-industrial in the third decade of the third millennium."

dralley 6y ago
Seattle is still in a better position than those cities due to Microsoft and Amazon, which will soften the blow, but it will still be quite painful.
- rtkwe 6y ago
  Yeah the Everett plant only employees 30k according to the Boeing site which is 1% of Seattle's population even if the whole plant went away. It'd hurt to lose for sure but I doubt it will be disastrous the same way it was when steel and cars left other cities.
  - akira2501 6y ago
    30k Boeing employees, but I'd like to know how many local contractors, shops and restaurants ultimately depend on this workforce.
    - rtkwe 6y ago
      Local shops can ship parts to Boeing's other plants and there are other aircraft that will still be made there. For things more tangentially related like restaurants the most threat would be to the ones right there that depend on work lunches, outside of that very local area are at much lower risk because as big as the factory is (and again it's not leaving just losing one plane) it's a small percentage of the local population.
  - klyrs 6y ago
    Everett is an hour's drive from Seattle, and afaik its population is not included in the "greater Seattle area." While many commute, that 30k is nearly a third of the population of Everett. And Boeing contracts a lot of components that feed that plant. Many of them local, small businesses, spread throughout the region, with that one customer.
    - rtkwe 6y ago
      Those contractors don't have to be colocated though and only 1 plane is leaving. On top of that it's the 787 which isn't exactly in a good spot. Last I heard there was still an open question of how much work would be involved in getting them flying again.
      - coredog64 6y ago
        787 != 737-MAX. The 787’s teething problems were ~8 years ago.
        throw0101a 6y ago
        Well it seems that the South Carolina assembly plant didn't get the memo and is still experiencing issues: * https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/20/business/boeing-dreamliner-production-problems.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/20/business/boeing-dreamline...
  - numpad0 6y ago
    1% of population is substantial. Cumulative US COVID-19 cases are like 2% and deaths are 0.062%.
    - rtkwe 6y ago
      Most of the disruption has been the containment efforts not the dead or sick themselves though. The damage has come from the 12 percentage points of growth in the unemployment rate. It was attenuated a lot when there was the additional unemployment money.
    - birken 6y ago
      FWIW, the # of actual COVID cases in the US population is better estimated at ~15% [1]. Only counting verified cases drastically undercounts, because testing has always been very constrained, and many people don't have severe symptoms and therefore don't get tested. 1: https://covid19-projections.com/us https://covid19-projections.com/us
      - robbiep 6y ago
        You have to call bullshit in those numbers. Take a country with good surveillance and reliable death statistics. NZ and/or Australia will fit the bill. The case fatality rate there is a touch above 3%, mostly in aged care deaths, but with enough in the lower age groups to give anyone who has a comorbidity and is above 40 a quickening of the pulse (854 deaths, 26,942 cases, positive test % has never breached 1% and generally been under half a % so incidence is likely to be close to reported cases). US CFR at reported numbers isn’t far off 3% and if you take the Excess deaths figures that suggest there has already been more like 250,000 deaths, along with the missed cases, you’re probably closer to the mark. Even if spread is confined tightly to younger age groups with lower death rates, there can be no serious person who believes close to 60m Americans have either previously or Are currently Infected.
        birken 6y ago
        What do you think the numbers are? Why do the CDC's seroprevalence studies [1] consistently show the estimated case counts are much higher than the reported cases (6x in NYC area, 5x in Philly, 9x higher in South Florida)? Do you not think there is a strong correlation, everywhere around the world, in which people who have minor symptoms or people who have no symptoms do not get tested? If the case fatality rate is actually 3%, how does a place like Singapore have >50k cases with fewer than 50 deaths? That seems impossible. 1: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?#serology-surveillance https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?#serology-surveill...
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- vaxman 6y ago
  Those avionics assembly people can go to work in the tech companies....doing what?
  - CountSessine 6y ago
    They’re not going to be working at Amazon but likely smaller companies building parts for the aircraft industry supply chain. I think what the parent poster meant was that the lay-offs won’t wipe Seattle’s tax base out because they’re a proportionally smaller part of Seattle’s workforce than steel workers would have been in Pittsburg in the 70s.
    - mzs 6y ago
      Those companies now are largely in low cost of labor areas not near Seattle.
xxpor 6y ago
The 777x and 767 will still be here at least.
- holler 6y ago
  yeah and 737 assuming nothing changes
  - coredog64 6y ago
    737 is the Renton plant. But even that is just final assembly as the fuselage is assembled in Wichita and shipped via train.
- sanguy 6y ago
  The plan is if the 787 ramp up in SC goes well the 777x will be the next to get moved, and 767 will end its run in Everett and then the lights turned off.
brightball 6y ago
That feels like a scare piece. It’s a big leap to go from moving production of one type of plane to the other facility where that plane is produced...all the way to assuming they are shutting down everything. I live in SC and worked for a company in Seattle when the Charleston plant opened. From day one this type of scare tactic talk has been circulated. My cab driver from the airport told me “they are moving everything to South Carolina! Can you believe that!?” It’s a narrative to rile people up. That’s it.

by holler 6y ago

dralley 6y ago

Seattle is still in a better position than those cities due to Microsoft and Amazon, which will soften the blow, but it will still be quite painful.

rtkwe 6y ago
Yeah the Everett plant only employees 30k according to the Boeing site which is 1% of Seattle's population even if the whole plant went away. It'd hurt to lose for sure but I doubt it will be disastrous the same way it was when steel and cars left other cities.
- akira2501 6y ago
  30k Boeing employees, but I'd like to know how many local contractors, shops and restaurants ultimately depend on this workforce.
  - rtkwe 6y ago
    Local shops can ship parts to Boeing's other plants and there are other aircraft that will still be made there. For things more tangentially related like restaurants the most threat would be to the ones right there that depend on work lunches, outside of that very local area are at much lower risk because as big as the factory is (and again it's not leaving just losing one plane) it's a small percentage of the local population.
- klyrs 6y ago
  Everett is an hour's drive from Seattle, and afaik its population is not included in the "greater Seattle area." While many commute, that 30k is nearly a third of the population of Everett. And Boeing contracts a lot of components that feed that plant. Many of them local, small businesses, spread throughout the region, with that one customer.
  - rtkwe 6y ago
    Those contractors don't have to be colocated though and only 1 plane is leaving. On top of that it's the 787 which isn't exactly in a good spot. Last I heard there was still an open question of how much work would be involved in getting them flying again.
    - coredog64 6y ago
      787 != 737-MAX. The 787’s teething problems were ~8 years ago.
      - throw0101a 6y ago
        Well it seems that the South Carolina assembly plant didn't get the memo and is still experiencing issues: * https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/20/business/boeing-dreamliner-production-problems.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/20/business/boeing-dreamline...
- numpad0 6y ago
  1% of population is substantial. Cumulative US COVID-19 cases are like 2% and deaths are 0.062%.
  - rtkwe 6y ago
    Most of the disruption has been the containment efforts not the dead or sick themselves though. The damage has come from the 12 percentage points of growth in the unemployment rate. It was attenuated a lot when there was the additional unemployment money.
  - birken 6y ago
    FWIW, the # of actual COVID cases in the US population is better estimated at ~15% [1]. Only counting verified cases drastically undercounts, because testing has always been very constrained, and many people don't have severe symptoms and therefore don't get tested. 1: https://covid19-projections.com/us https://covid19-projections.com/us
    - robbiep 6y ago
      You have to call bullshit in those numbers. Take a country with good surveillance and reliable death statistics. NZ and/or Australia will fit the bill. The case fatality rate there is a touch above 3%, mostly in aged care deaths, but with enough in the lower age groups to give anyone who has a comorbidity and is above 40 a quickening of the pulse (854 deaths, 26,942 cases, positive test % has never breached 1% and generally been under half a % so incidence is likely to be close to reported cases). US CFR at reported numbers isn’t far off 3% and if you take the Excess deaths figures that suggest there has already been more like 250,000 deaths, along with the missed cases, you’re probably closer to the mark. Even if spread is confined tightly to younger age groups with lower death rates, there can be no serious person who believes close to 60m Americans have either previously or Are currently Infected.
      - birken 6y ago
        What do you think the numbers are? Why do the CDC's seroprevalence studies [1] consistently show the estimated case counts are much higher than the reported cases (6x in NYC area, 5x in Philly, 9x higher in South Florida)? Do you not think there is a strong correlation, everywhere around the world, in which people who have minor symptoms or people who have no symptoms do not get tested? If the case fatality rate is actually 3%, how does a place like Singapore have >50k cases with fewer than 50 deaths? That seems impossible. 1: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?#serology-surveillance https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?#serology-surveill...
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
vaxman 6y ago
Those avionics assembly people can go to work in the tech companies....doing what?
- CountSessine 6y ago
  They’re not going to be working at Amazon but likely smaller companies building parts for the aircraft industry supply chain. I think what the parent poster meant was that the lay-offs won’t wipe Seattle’s tax base out because they’re a proportionally smaller part of Seattle’s workforce than steel workers would have been in Pittsburg in the 70s.
  - mzs 6y ago
    Those companies now are largely in low cost of labor areas not near Seattle.

xxpor 6y ago

The 777x and 767 will still be here at least.

holler 6y ago
yeah and 737 assuming nothing changes
- coredog64 6y ago
  737 is the Renton plant. But even that is just final assembly as the fuselage is assembled in Wichita and shipped via train.
sanguy 6y ago
The plan is if the 787 ramp up in SC goes well the 777x will be the next to get moved, and 767 will end its run in Everett and then the lights turned off.

brightball 6y ago

That feels like a scare piece. It’s a big leap to go from moving production of one type of plane to the other facility where that plane is produced...all the way to assuming they are shutting down everything. I live in SC and worked for a company in Seattle when the Charleston plant opened. From day one this type of scare tactic talk has been circulated. My cab driver from the airport told me “they are moving everything to South Carolina! Can you believe that!?” It’s a narrative to rile people up. That’s it.