6 ms·

What's the betting the UK Government puts off action until comfortably after the ideal time to enforce restrictions once more?

detritus 6y ago
They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. I still can't believe how un-Tory our Tory government has been, and yet still they're The Worst of The Worst in the minds of those with strong opinions. I don't much like our political classes, but I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year.
- dijit 6y ago
  This is bait. "the most untory" is probably because they're trying to spend their way out of this; but that is actually completely in-line with criticisms levied at the tories: Spend nothing on prevention, and overspend when shit hits the fan.
  - throwawayinfo 6y ago
    Could this have been prevented? China was only able to act fast because of the authoritarianism (bolting people indoors) and the global supply chain is sat in their backyard, not necessarily because they're making the right investment upfront.
    - singemonkey 6y ago
      > Could this have been prevented Yes, tens of thousands of deaths could have been prevented. South Korea has a population of a similar size to the UK (51 vs 65 million), and have had approximately 400 deaths due to Covid compared to 40,000 in the UK.
      - 2T1Qka0rEiPr 6y ago
        I know that it's really appealing to compare countries, but it seems to me that it's simply really difficult to do that in a constructive way, without accounting for all the differences between them. I would imagine (though I couldn't easily find statistics on this) that the UK has far more people flying in and out of, thus making it more susceptible. Conversely, S Korea has a far higher (average, and perhaps clusters are the real issue) population density. The economic and political setup will naturally have a big impact (e.g. federal vs. non, market economy vs. planned etc.) on a country's ability to react. And finally, the statistics are calculated differently, and so we're not comparing two of the same measures. None of this is to say that I believe the UK has performed well.
        detritus 6y ago
        Yes, this is very much what I think too - the UK is a 'nexus' country with saturated and dense global and continental links. So clearly the 'solution' would have been to very early on close the borders and lock everyone down for two weeks. Done and dusted! But can you imagine that EVER having come to pass pre-March? Our populace has no contemporary history or understanding of the implications of a pandemic and would have reacted with furore. Perhaps in future people will be a little more open to such practise, but certainly not prior to now.
        dijit 6y ago
        I appreciate you taking the time to comment in these threads, especially as people who see that you're a tory person will probably disavow the things you say on the face of it. That said, I hope you don't take it as a rebuttal for the sake of it if I disagree. The "solution" that our government suggested was to do nothing, not just to not to lock down at all but to quite literally do nothing. This could have been the right thing to do and indeed was based on a pandemic model that had been created before. But was widely criticised at the time because the pandemic model which was used in the model had a significantly lower unmitigated R value. It's possible for some to conclude that "they did the best with the information that they had at the time" owing to the fact that typically we always operate with an uncertain future, and looking back on passed decisions can be done with the clarity and certainty that only living with consequences can grant: but that does not apply here. Boris and co. intentionally downplayed the pandemic, intentionally killed off PPE plans and intentionally prevented the roll out of testing where needed. This is before we even _think_ about lock-downs. Lock-downs are not a panacea and they do nothing to stop a pandemic, they merely slow it while we work on a vaccine or until the population is sufficiently immune (without overwhelming healthcare). The key thing for the current government is, then: do not overwhelm healthcare. Which is harder to do when your party has chronically underfunded it for over a decade.
    - mytailorisrich 6y ago
      Taiwan and Korea also managed. In mainland China authoritarianism played a part but people made a lot of efforts by themselves, not out of fear, like in Taiwan and Korea. I think that's one of the main problems we're having in the UK. Too many people have zero civic sense and complain about their "freedoms being infringed" instead seeing the big picture that in an epidemic everyone must act together for the group at the cost of individual sacrifices.
      - throwawayinfo 6y ago
        But those are vastly different countries, there are far too many variables to unpack before making a conclusive decision. Freedoms are being infringed, but I do understand the need to sacrifice. We're not being asked for a lot compared to previous generations. What we do need is real leadership though and lack of leadership is causing people to check out of caring about the virus. People would care a lot more if they believed their government had a plan.
        mytailorisrich 6y ago
        They are only vastly different compared to us in the sense that they had a plan and that they implemented it early and decisively as one. > Freedoms are being infringed, but I do understand the need to sacrifice. That's the point, isn't it? To understand that individual freedoms, and individualism, are not absolute and can be reduced temporarily when necessary.
        throwawayinfo 6y ago
        > That's the point, isn't it? To understand that individual freedoms, and individualism, are not absolute and can be reduced temporarily when necessary. Yes and no. An individual right/freedom is immutable. It's not something "granted" to us by government, and not something they should be able to take away. I understand the need for emergency measures, but in my opinion the government should've gotten consent before continuing this for months on end. There is a balance to be had here. It's not a sacrifice if it's not a choice. We now know the government doesn't have an exit strategy, so we could be stuck in this state for many more months to come. This is espet alarming when you consider people are missing NHS appointments (e.g. cancer diagnosis) or the serious economic issues. Serious fallout is coming.
- toyg 6y ago
  Yeah, but if you compare them to Italy (hardly a stereotypical example of good administration), it's a pretty stark contrast. Italians made their mistakes too (last month in Sardinia, for example), their government is not even monolithic in terms of parties, but after early March they've contained it much better than we did. We had almost a month of head-start, we didn't use it, and now we're not even like them - we are worse.
  - detritus 6y ago
    As I've been saying to everyone (including my Italian partner whose stated much the same opinion as you have) - I don't think anyone can point to any state and declare with any assurance "They got it right!" and I don't think we'll be able to until this time next year at least. To herd or not to herd? To hide or not to hide? What risk is acceptable, and in what domains - social? Emotional? Economic? No one knows, but everyone still has opinions (myself included!).
    - mercer 6y ago
      Fewer people dying seems like a decent metric to optimize for, no?
      - detritus 6y ago
        Over what period? We're not at the end of this.
- throwawayinfo 6y ago
  As an actual Tory (not popular around here I'll admit) I'm amazed at how Boris' attempt to make everyone happy has resulted in across the board hate. It's the same mistake that Theresa May made, so surely you'd think he'd understand that.
  - dazc 6y ago
    Boris was handed a large majority and could have played to his side only. Choosing not to do this was an obvious error but, in a age where the media are setting the daily narrative, I can understand why.
    - throwawayinfo 6y ago
      Eh... Boris' job is literally to make decisions, some of which may be intensely unpopular or criticised by the media. Being spineless is not a vote winner.
      - dazc 6y ago
        I thought I was, more or less, saying this?
    - rsynnott 6y ago
      I think part of the issue there is that he doesn't _have_ a side as such. He was elected by a historically bizarre coalition, driven by the Brexit issue.
      - dazc 6y ago
        No, you are correct and having a side, as such, was the wrong term. Swap 'his side' for people who were fed up of political posturing and just wanted to get things done. That thing was obviously Brexit, at the time, but I think it also applies to 'things' in general. In other words, taking the Covid issue head-on and making decisions in spite of what the media reaction would be may be something that the same group of people could support? What we have now is a PM and Govt being criticised from all 'sides'. A classic example of trying to please everyone and actually pleasing no one, if you like?
- ben_w 6y ago
  I suspect “not wanting to be in their shoes this year” is exactly why the level of competence is so low. The competent looked at the situation the UK was in even before Corona started competing with Brexit for public attention, and decided to let someone else to take the blame.
- akoncius 6y ago
  > I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year I think it applies to any political party which is currently governing in all countries. this is very difficult situation and none of the options are pleasant.
- m4r35n357 6y ago
  Their true priorities are clearly elsewhere. Hence the constant fumbling over Covid.
- rsynnott 6y ago
  They've been pretty timid about restrictions, I think. In Ireland, with similar numbers to the UK (10% lower) we've locked down Dublin again (no visitors from more than one household inside or outside, restaurants outside only, no pubs, must work from home unless impossible). And that's mild compared to some restrictions on the continent. In particular, the UK government seems to have an obsession with getting people back to offices; as far as I know basically everywhere else in Europe has continued to at least suggest, if not mandate, working from home where possible.
  - mercer 6y ago
    Yup. In the Netherlands just last Friday our PM implored peopled to work from home as much as possible.
dazc 6y ago
I believe enforcing restrictions now would be near impossible without military involvement and this is highly unlikely. The original restrictions were, from what I witnessed, barely enforced after the first week anyhow.
- ageitgey 6y ago
  Speaking anecdotally from my friend group of professional adults with kids on London, it really feels like the government has lost the cooperation of even the most law-abiding and willing-to-cooperate people at this point. I mean they spent the last month giving the entire country a month-long 50%-off "Groupon" to every restaurant and telling us to go out more to prop up the economy. Then a couple of weeks later, they open schools without sufficient testing capacity and say it's our fault for a disease spreading because we aren't complying with the ever-shifting and often nonsensical rules. I'm sure nearly everyone in London has had the experience of being required to wear a mask on a train and then walking 5 feet into a coffee shop where you can sit in an enclosed space smaller than a train car without a mask. Or you've seen two restaurants next door to each other where one has their staff wear masks and the other takes literally no precautions. Or you've been told you can't have another family of 4 over to your house to eat dinner but you can play full-contact rugby with them if you like. Combine that with the fact that COVID rates have been so low for so long now that must of us don't have personal experience with COVID and of course people are losing their will to cooperate. It would be one thing if there was an exit strategy on the horizon, but without one clearly defined, I think most people are just starting to give up on the idea of stopping COVID if it requires them to indefinitely suspend living their life. This is just my impression of how my friends are reacting - I'm not saying that the situation isn't serious.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    In fairness, with the advice on social distancing, face masks, etc. being what it is, to go to a restaurant or coffee shop is lacking common sense. I think this is an important issue: The government has enacted 'strange' guidance, and offered that £10 restaurants handout because it does not want to anger anyone. But one would have hoped that the public could see through that and focus on the key advice (face masks and don't get too close to anyone)... Alas not. I did not "eat out to help out", I have not set foot in a pub or coffee shop since March, and I haven't had a professional hair cut yet this year. Why? But I think that the priority is distancing and avoiding crowds in enclosed spaces, not saving £10 on a curry.
cheph 6y ago
Is the healthcare system in UK anywhere close to capacity? Is there a site with details about people admitted to hospital, in intensive care and on respirators (due to covid) that shows this?
- Guthur 6y ago
  The UK spun up a load of "nightingale" facilities in anticipation of flooding hospitals. They're still there and empty as far as I'm aware.
  - ben_w 6y ago
    Some of them are on standby, or being used for other health care issues: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Nightingale_Hospitals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Nightingale_Hospitals
- neilwilson 6y ago
  It was nowhere near capacity back in April when we were getting a 1000 deaths a day. They mothballed the Nightingale Hospitals with next to no usage. Beds data is here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
  - cheph 6y ago
    Great data, thanks.
- OJFord 6y ago
  Not at the moment, no, it's fine. The concern is for a rise in cases again right as we head into winter and have the usual respiratory cases too. I think the 'nightingale' sites are all but unused at the moment, so there's some buffer, but the point is 'hey stop ignoring guidance/laws - the trajectory is bad' rather than 'it's bad right now'.

detritus 6y ago

They're damned if they do, damned if they don't. I still can't believe how un-Tory our Tory government has been, and yet still they're The Worst of The Worst in the minds of those with strong opinions. I don't much like our political classes, but I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year.

dijit 6y ago
This is bait. "the most untory" is probably because they're trying to spend their way out of this; but that is actually completely in-line with criticisms levied at the tories: Spend nothing on prevention, and overspend when shit hits the fan.
- throwawayinfo 6y ago
  Could this have been prevented? China was only able to act fast because of the authoritarianism (bolting people indoors) and the global supply chain is sat in their backyard, not necessarily because they're making the right investment upfront.
  - singemonkey 6y ago
    > Could this have been prevented Yes, tens of thousands of deaths could have been prevented. South Korea has a population of a similar size to the UK (51 vs 65 million), and have had approximately 400 deaths due to Covid compared to 40,000 in the UK.
    - 2T1Qka0rEiPr 6y ago
      I know that it's really appealing to compare countries, but it seems to me that it's simply really difficult to do that in a constructive way, without accounting for all the differences between them. I would imagine (though I couldn't easily find statistics on this) that the UK has far more people flying in and out of, thus making it more susceptible. Conversely, S Korea has a far higher (average, and perhaps clusters are the real issue) population density. The economic and political setup will naturally have a big impact (e.g. federal vs. non, market economy vs. planned etc.) on a country's ability to react. And finally, the statistics are calculated differently, and so we're not comparing two of the same measures. None of this is to say that I believe the UK has performed well.
      - detritus 6y ago
        Yes, this is very much what I think too - the UK is a 'nexus' country with saturated and dense global and continental links. So clearly the 'solution' would have been to very early on close the borders and lock everyone down for two weeks. Done and dusted! But can you imagine that EVER having come to pass pre-March? Our populace has no contemporary history or understanding of the implications of a pandemic and would have reacted with furore. Perhaps in future people will be a little more open to such practise, but certainly not prior to now.
        dijit 6y ago
        I appreciate you taking the time to comment in these threads, especially as people who see that you're a tory person will probably disavow the things you say on the face of it. That said, I hope you don't take it as a rebuttal for the sake of it if I disagree. The "solution" that our government suggested was to do nothing, not just to not to lock down at all but to quite literally do nothing. This could have been the right thing to do and indeed was based on a pandemic model that had been created before. But was widely criticised at the time because the pandemic model which was used in the model had a significantly lower unmitigated R value. It's possible for some to conclude that "they did the best with the information that they had at the time" owing to the fact that typically we always operate with an uncertain future, and looking back on passed decisions can be done with the clarity and certainty that only living with consequences can grant: but that does not apply here. Boris and co. intentionally downplayed the pandemic, intentionally killed off PPE plans and intentionally prevented the roll out of testing where needed. This is before we even _think_ about lock-downs. Lock-downs are not a panacea and they do nothing to stop a pandemic, they merely slow it while we work on a vaccine or until the population is sufficiently immune (without overwhelming healthcare). The key thing for the current government is, then: do not overwhelm healthcare. Which is harder to do when your party has chronically underfunded it for over a decade.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    Taiwan and Korea also managed. In mainland China authoritarianism played a part but people made a lot of efforts by themselves, not out of fear, like in Taiwan and Korea. I think that's one of the main problems we're having in the UK. Too many people have zero civic sense and complain about their "freedoms being infringed" instead seeing the big picture that in an epidemic everyone must act together for the group at the cost of individual sacrifices.
    - throwawayinfo 6y ago
      But those are vastly different countries, there are far too many variables to unpack before making a conclusive decision. Freedoms are being infringed, but I do understand the need to sacrifice. We're not being asked for a lot compared to previous generations. What we do need is real leadership though and lack of leadership is causing people to check out of caring about the virus. People would care a lot more if they believed their government had a plan.
      - mytailorisrich 6y ago
        They are only vastly different compared to us in the sense that they had a plan and that they implemented it early and decisively as one. > Freedoms are being infringed, but I do understand the need to sacrifice. That's the point, isn't it? To understand that individual freedoms, and individualism, are not absolute and can be reduced temporarily when necessary.
        throwawayinfo 6y ago
        > That's the point, isn't it? To understand that individual freedoms, and individualism, are not absolute and can be reduced temporarily when necessary. Yes and no. An individual right/freedom is immutable. It's not something "granted" to us by government, and not something they should be able to take away. I understand the need for emergency measures, but in my opinion the government should've gotten consent before continuing this for months on end. There is a balance to be had here. It's not a sacrifice if it's not a choice. We now know the government doesn't have an exit strategy, so we could be stuck in this state for many more months to come. This is espet alarming when you consider people are missing NHS appointments (e.g. cancer diagnosis) or the serious economic issues. Serious fallout is coming.
toyg 6y ago
Yeah, but if you compare them to Italy (hardly a stereotypical example of good administration), it's a pretty stark contrast. Italians made their mistakes too (last month in Sardinia, for example), their government is not even monolithic in terms of parties, but after early March they've contained it much better than we did. We had almost a month of head-start, we didn't use it, and now we're not even like them - we are worse.
- detritus 6y ago
  As I've been saying to everyone (including my Italian partner whose stated much the same opinion as you have) - I don't think anyone can point to any state and declare with any assurance "They got it right!" and I don't think we'll be able to until this time next year at least. To herd or not to herd? To hide or not to hide? What risk is acceptable, and in what domains - social? Emotional? Economic? No one knows, but everyone still has opinions (myself included!).
  - mercer 6y ago
    Fewer people dying seems like a decent metric to optimize for, no?
    - detritus 6y ago
      Over what period? We're not at the end of this.
throwawayinfo 6y ago
As an actual Tory (not popular around here I'll admit) I'm amazed at how Boris' attempt to make everyone happy has resulted in across the board hate. It's the same mistake that Theresa May made, so surely you'd think he'd understand that.
- dazc 6y ago
  Boris was handed a large majority and could have played to his side only. Choosing not to do this was an obvious error but, in a age where the media are setting the daily narrative, I can understand why.
  - throwawayinfo 6y ago
    Eh... Boris' job is literally to make decisions, some of which may be intensely unpopular or criticised by the media. Being spineless is not a vote winner.
    - dazc 6y ago
      I thought I was, more or less, saying this?
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    I think part of the issue there is that he doesn't _have_ a side as such. He was elected by a historically bizarre coalition, driven by the Brexit issue.
    - dazc 6y ago
      No, you are correct and having a side, as such, was the wrong term. Swap 'his side' for people who were fed up of political posturing and just wanted to get things done. That thing was obviously Brexit, at the time, but I think it also applies to 'things' in general. In other words, taking the Covid issue head-on and making decisions in spite of what the media reaction would be may be something that the same group of people could support? What we have now is a PM and Govt being criticised from all 'sides'. A classic example of trying to please everyone and actually pleasing no one, if you like?
ben_w 6y ago
I suspect “not wanting to be in their shoes this year” is exactly why the level of competence is so low. The competent looked at the situation the UK was in even before Corona started competing with Brexit for public attention, and decided to let someone else to take the blame.
akoncius 6y ago
> I really wouldn't want to be in their shoes this year I think it applies to any political party which is currently governing in all countries. this is very difficult situation and none of the options are pleasant.
m4r35n357 6y ago
Their true priorities are clearly elsewhere. Hence the constant fumbling over Covid.
rsynnott 6y ago
They've been pretty timid about restrictions, I think. In Ireland, with similar numbers to the UK (10% lower) we've locked down Dublin again (no visitors from more than one household inside or outside, restaurants outside only, no pubs, must work from home unless impossible). And that's mild compared to some restrictions on the continent. In particular, the UK government seems to have an obsession with getting people back to offices; as far as I know basically everywhere else in Europe has continued to at least suggest, if not mandate, working from home where possible.
- mercer 6y ago
  Yup. In the Netherlands just last Friday our PM implored peopled to work from home as much as possible.

dazc 6y ago

I believe enforcing restrictions now would be near impossible without military involvement and this is highly unlikely. The original restrictions were, from what I witnessed, barely enforced after the first week anyhow.

ageitgey 6y ago
Speaking anecdotally from my friend group of professional adults with kids on London, it really feels like the government has lost the cooperation of even the most law-abiding and willing-to-cooperate people at this point. I mean they spent the last month giving the entire country a month-long 50%-off "Groupon" to every restaurant and telling us to go out more to prop up the economy. Then a couple of weeks later, they open schools without sufficient testing capacity and say it's our fault for a disease spreading because we aren't complying with the ever-shifting and often nonsensical rules. I'm sure nearly everyone in London has had the experience of being required to wear a mask on a train and then walking 5 feet into a coffee shop where you can sit in an enclosed space smaller than a train car without a mask. Or you've seen two restaurants next door to each other where one has their staff wear masks and the other takes literally no precautions. Or you've been told you can't have another family of 4 over to your house to eat dinner but you can play full-contact rugby with them if you like. Combine that with the fact that COVID rates have been so low for so long now that must of us don't have personal experience with COVID and of course people are losing their will to cooperate. It would be one thing if there was an exit strategy on the horizon, but without one clearly defined, I think most people are just starting to give up on the idea of stopping COVID if it requires them to indefinitely suspend living their life. This is just my impression of how my friends are reacting - I'm not saying that the situation isn't serious.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  In fairness, with the advice on social distancing, face masks, etc. being what it is, to go to a restaurant or coffee shop is lacking common sense. I think this is an important issue: The government has enacted 'strange' guidance, and offered that £10 restaurants handout because it does not want to anger anyone. But one would have hoped that the public could see through that and focus on the key advice (face masks and don't get too close to anyone)... Alas not. I did not "eat out to help out", I have not set foot in a pub or coffee shop since March, and I haven't had a professional hair cut yet this year. Why? But I think that the priority is distancing and avoiding crowds in enclosed spaces, not saving £10 on a curry.

cheph 6y ago

Is the healthcare system in UK anywhere close to capacity? Is there a site with details about people admitted to hospital, in intensive care and on respirators (due to covid) that shows this?

Guthur 6y ago
The UK spun up a load of "nightingale" facilities in anticipation of flooding hospitals. They're still there and empty as far as I'm aware.
- ben_w 6y ago
  Some of them are on standby, or being used for other health care issues: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Nightingale_Hospitals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Nightingale_Hospitals
neilwilson 6y ago
It was nowhere near capacity back in April when we were getting a 1000 deaths a day. They mothballed the Nightingale Hospitals with next to no usage. Beds data is here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
- cheph 6y ago
  Great data, thanks.
OJFord 6y ago
Not at the moment, no, it's fine. The concern is for a rise in cases again right as we head into winter and have the usual respiratory cases too. I think the 'nightingale' sites are all but unused at the moment, so there's some buffer, but the point is 'hey stop ignoring guidance/laws - the trajectory is bad' rather than 'it's bad right now'.