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Ask HN: What's the scientific theory behind current flu deaths (genuine q)

7 points by dustinmoris 6y ago

Hi, this is a genuine question to further broaden my understanding around respiratory diseases, the flu and COVID. I find it extremely strange and very curious to understand how it's possible that the UK has had more influenza deaths than COVID in recent months. First of all here is the evidence for that claim, it's a report by the ONS (office for national statistics): https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10july2020 Scroll to "Deaths registered by week" and the graph clearly shows that since early June (~ last 3 months) the UK has had more deaths attributed to the common influenza than COVID. How is this possible? Given that COVID is more virulent, more deadly, the population has a lot less immunity and there is no vaccine for COVID whereas many citizen have been vaccinated against the flu I am genuinely baffled how this is possible. It's a genuine question and not a troll question. I want to understand the science behind this. I would have thought that any measures we've taken to prevent COVID transmission should have been at a minimum equally if not even more effective against the flu. Does someone have a greater understanding here on HN and can provide some scientific theory for what is happening? Many thanks in advance!

tlb 6y ago
I don't see data for influenza alone, only for "influenza and pneumonia". Pneumonia is caused by several endemic viruses and bacteria. Some of these are very widespread, yet almost everyone is immune. They circulate but only cause sickness in people whose immune system is compromised. The social distancing measures against Covid-19 don't affect these germs all that much. Eyeballing the blue line in the graph, they seem to be down about 1/3 since social distancing started.
- dustinmoris 6y ago
  > Pneumonia is caused by several endemic viruses and bacteria. Good point, I didn't think about this immediately and that could play a role in the higher number than COVID.
lm28469 6y ago
We made lots of progress in treating the new disease (covid) while the baseline of pneumonia/influenza death is stable or even decreasing. What's troubling you here ? edit: it seems like the blue line decrease could be explained by: "A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category." So all in all we just got better at treating covid + social distancing/masks doing their job
- dustinmoris 6y ago
  > We made lots of progress in treating the new disease (covid) while the baseline of pneumonia/influenza death is stable or even decreasing. What's troubling you here ? Nothing is troubling me. I am curious to understand why flu deaths > COVID deaths. I think this is interesting enough for a curious mind to want to further explore. I agree that we got better at treating COVID today than 6 months ago, but has it improved THIS MUCH that it explains flu deaths to be more than COVID deaths for 3 months now? If that was true, then why would COVID ever become more deadly than flu again? Seems like a very unlikely reason which you've provided and I find it slightly unsatisfactory as it doesn't make quite sense. > "A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category." This just further highlights the strangeness about the higher number of influenza deaths than COVID deaths, because it proves the point that if someone was tested positive for both, they will be counted as a COVID death, so possibly hiding an even higher flu death rate at the moment.
  - lm28469 6y ago
    > why would COVID ever become more deadly than flu again? We're still in the middle of a partial (or full in some cities) lockdown, if we stopped the numbers would most likely go up again. Don't forget that the peak of death at the beginning was due to high number of cases + hospitals being completely unprepared to handle it + no idea on how to treat the disease itself. I don't see anything that can't be explained by very restrictive measures (lockdown + masks) + better understanding and treatment of covid tbh.

7 points by dustinmoris 6y ago

tlb 6y ago

I don't see data for influenza alone, only for "influenza and pneumonia". Pneumonia is caused by several endemic viruses and bacteria. Some of these are very widespread, yet almost everyone is immune. They circulate but only cause sickness in people whose immune system is compromised. The social distancing measures against Covid-19 don't affect these germs all that much. Eyeballing the blue line in the graph, they seem to be down about 1/3 since social distancing started.

dustinmoris 6y ago
> Pneumonia is caused by several endemic viruses and bacteria. Good point, I didn't think about this immediately and that could play a role in the higher number than COVID.

lm28469 6y ago

We made lots of progress in treating the new disease (covid) while the baseline of pneumonia/influenza death is stable or even decreasing. What's troubling you here ? edit: it seems like the blue line decrease could be explained by: "A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category." So all in all we just got better at treating covid + social distancing/masks doing their job

dustinmoris 6y ago
> We made lots of progress in treating the new disease (covid) while the baseline of pneumonia/influenza death is stable or even decreasing. What's troubling you here ? Nothing is troubling me. I am curious to understand why flu deaths > COVID deaths. I think this is interesting enough for a curious mind to want to further explore. I agree that we got better at treating COVID today than 6 months ago, but has it improved THIS MUCH that it explains flu deaths to be more than COVID deaths for 3 months now? If that was true, then why would COVID ever become more deadly than flu again? Seems like a very unlikely reason which you've provided and I find it slightly unsatisfactory as it doesn't make quite sense. > "A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category." This just further highlights the strangeness about the higher number of influenza deaths than COVID deaths, because it proves the point that if someone was tested positive for both, they will be counted as a COVID death, so possibly hiding an even higher flu death rate at the moment.
- lm28469 6y ago
  > why would COVID ever become more deadly than flu again? We're still in the middle of a partial (or full in some cities) lockdown, if we stopped the numbers would most likely go up again. Don't forget that the peak of death at the beginning was due to high number of cases + hospitals being completely unprepared to handle it + no idea on how to treat the disease itself. I don't see anything that can't be explained by very restrictive measures (lockdown + masks) + better understanding and treatment of covid tbh.