6 ms·

Covid-19 Round 2 is Here

68 points by AlexeyBrin 6y ago

asah 6y ago
Yep, sigh. NYC: https://www.reddit.com/r/nycCoronavirus/comments/ivtqgq/update_7_here_we_go_again_from_a_manhattan/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nycCoronavirus/comments/ivtqgq/upda... Raw data: https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+COVID+cases https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+COVID+cases
- formercoder 6y ago
  I read this post as well and while I respect this person his claim is hugely anecdotal. What if some decision far above his pay grade resulted in COVID patients being rerouted from other NYC hospitals to his? That could easily explain his experience without the idea that COVID is rising again in NYC. I’ll wait for the data to come in personally. The data you linked does not show a material change.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    Yes there’s been a lot of treating doctors front line anecdotes as though they’re the product of epidemiological research studies. You’re asking a person tasked with tending a single tree in their back yard about what the state of the forest looks like. Especially since the linked raw data there is completely flat.
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    "Fortunately" we won't have to wait very long to know the answer. The weather has just started turning chilly here in NYC as of this past week so people are now starting to stay indoors more. And schools might still reopen, but it's impossible to know for sure because our mayor's leadership is so incompetent.
raducu 6y ago
20 days after first symptoms, still tired and coughing, and I had very mild symptoms. I've been very strict about social distancing EXCEPT the day(the first in 6 months) I went out for beers with two friends at and outdoor space. What I want to say is: that one time you let your guard down is when you will get infected and the horrors begin, especially if you don't live alone and care for the people you live with!
- matz1 6y ago
  The fact that you have very mild symptoms, which most majority of the cases will be, should be viewed as a good thing, instead of fear and despite you've been very strict about social distancing and still got infected shows that lockdown is not effective. Here something for comparison : "Shopping in Sweden during Coronavirus" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQat0vX-wjM&feature=emb_title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQat0vX-wjM&feature=emb_titl... Hardly any mask and businesses seems normal
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    Indeed if op knew the symptoms would be mild for them in advance, this statement would sound pretty crazy as it could be equally applied to the flu. If I knew the symptoms would be mild for me I’d run out and get it instead of hiding inside for 6 months and have it over with. Question is who is around you that might have a harder go of it.
    - ajmurmann 6y ago
      And we still don't seem to understand the long term damage that even mild COVID causes. I remember reading about people getting blood clots for instance
      - raducu 6y ago
        I did get d-dimers of 1.3 on my first test and 1.26 4 days later, so they got my anticoagulant shots in the hospital and aspirin at home, I initially did worry about that as well. The funny thing is the other patients had higher strength shots or for much longer -- and they had massive blood shot bruises on their arms/bellies and the nurses had to use some special cream, otherwise those bruises could clot and lead to stroke or heart attacks. So it was like, even the anti-cloting medicine was somehow trying to kill you in some perverse way.
    - raducu 6y ago
      But that was my exact thought -- would I do it again? Day 7 of mild symptoms and my relatives starting to get sick one by one -- NO! Day 20 -- still no! For 2-4 weeks after my daughter's symptoms I'll stress about kawasaki signs in her. Perhaps I'll change my time later, but I don't see the risks worth the rewards.
draw_down 6y ago
Perhaps on the plus side, at least in America, measures like distancing and masks are well-established, which very much wasn’t the case in May or so. And believe it or not, for the most part the measures are followed even by skeptics. I don’t think it’s really fair to portray the resistance or skepticism as only originating from idiocy or “fringe”. Authorities have said everything and its opposite in the last 6 or so months. They started by telling us this wasn’t really contagious so don’t worry, they told us not to procure masks before they told us to wear masks always, etc. Some people definitely use that to reach all sorts of ridiculous conclusions, no doubt. But I think you can’t discount how disorienting that all is, not to mention the whiplash of being told you must do x after you were told not to. There is also, again at least in America, a certain amount of resentment over health officials and others endorsing certain group events and condemning others, on a political basis, when the virus actually doesn’t care what your politics are. So yep, it is a political football.
- acdha 6y ago
  > Authorities have said everything and its opposite in the last 6 or so months. Right wingers in a couple countries said that. If you listened to actual experts, by February you knew it was highly contagious, asymptomatic spread was a big control problem, etc. The mask issue is the strongest charge because the goal of not buying up the same supplies needed by healthcare workers was confused into general advice not to wear them but by April that had been recognized as a mistake. The problem was that politics entered the picture when Trump blew off the experts briefing him starting in December and went with the Fox pundits desire first to hope that the economic impact wouldn’t be significant and later trying to pretend they hadn’t been so disastrously wrong. That meant that medical experts were overridden at previously non-political agencies, and that reporters were now pulled into treating advice as political opinions to be hedged.
  - username90 6y ago
    > Right wingers in a couple countries said that. Is Cuomo the governor for New York a right winger? He downplayed the pandemic as late as march 18. Pretty sure he wasn't the only democrat doing it either. If he didn't downplay it New York wouldn't have had one of the worst corona responses in the world. Quotes: > "That is not going to happen, shelter in place, for New York City," Cuomo said on The Daily podcast by The New York Times. "For any city or county to take an emergency action, the state has to approve it. And I wouldn't approve shelter in place." > "Quarantine in place, you can't leave your home," Cuomo said. "The fear, the panic is a bigger problem than the virus." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cuomo-says-he-wont-approve-coronavirus-shelter-in-place-order-for-new-york-city.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cuomo-says-he-wont-approve-c...
prakhar897 6y ago
Here in india we are still at first wave lol.
dustinmoris 6y ago
> COVID-19 will continue to hurt us economically until there is a vaccin That’s hardly going to be true. Only because we’re told that we might get a vaccine people like the author make it sound like that this is the obvious thing to happen, but that is really no different than someone hoping to win the lottery. Realistically we need to consider that currently there is no vaccine and theoretically there might never be one. If the above statement is true then theoretically we will never recover from COVID until eternity which is obviously quite ridiculous to say. I think we should be planning for a way to live alongside COVID with the prospect of never having a vaccine and come up with a way of life that the population can get onboard with. Obviously we all hope that there will be a vaccine and we’ll get an easy way out, but it’s irresponsible to take hard damaging hits now with the outlook that this is a temporary hit only until the magic solution will follow shortly. We don’t know this. We should take actions which allow us to live in a worst case scenario, not the best case. Taking huge short term pains under the assumption of a magic way out doesn’t feel particularly smart. I think we need to consider more measured and balanced forms of dealing with this pandemic because we might be in this for a very long time.
- Foober223 6y ago
  Yes, we very well may be forced to live alongside the new corona. Just as we do the older coronas. Immunity will be gained in time with the cost of organ health and death along the way. No human decisions, action, or in-action are required for mankind to gain resistance eventually. But... a vaccine in the US exists and is effective at making an immune response in all testing so far. Maybe the vaccine won't stop all woes. Maybe the virus will mutate too fast. But the vaccine exists today. It's not a pie in the sky dream.
- baxtr 6y ago
  What about Sweden then?
  - dustinmoris 6y ago
    What do you mean? Do they have a vaccine? I don’t think so, and Sweden did not lockdown because they know they have to find a way to possibly live with it for longer so if anything Sweden is a great example to support my statement.
Ozzie_osman 6y ago
Not going to comment on whether their strategy was effective or worth the cost in human toll, just going to say Sweden seems to be one of the few countries with no detectable signs of a second wave. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ EDIT: Before I start a flamewar, I guess I have to comment on whether I think Sweden's strategy was effective, so... 1. They might get a second wave in the future. But so far they seem to have avoided it. 2. It's too early to tell whether the cumulative loss in life and the cumulative economic damages will be better than those of other countries. So far, they do seem to have had more loss in life with less economic damage than their neighbors, but if they don't get a second wave, they might end up in a much better spot economically. So yeah, in conclusion, we should keep watching them to see how things play out but not draw conclusions like "they had more loss in life" or "they had less damage to the economy", because it's still too early.
- djsjejjdi324 6y ago
  You mean this Sweden? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behin...
  - zwily 6y ago
    When that interview was done, Sweden was in a pretty bad spot. Today their strategy is looking much more successful. Do you have anything more recent from him?
    - bshipp 6y ago
      Today everyone's strategy is looking more successful as we leave the summer. We will see how it all stacks up in the next six months after flu season.
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  Sweden also has one of the highest per capita COVID-19 mortality rates in the world, yet still suffered economically from the virus same as anyone else. This should always be in the conversation every time we're talking about the Sweden response.
baxtr 6y ago
As a side note: it’s really annoying that the scroll bar is hidden on that page (Safari/iPhone).
- jacquesm 6y ago
  I suspect that is a safari issue, I'm not aware of my website doing anything on purpose to give that effect. If you can tell me what to change I'll be happy to do so.
  - baxtr 6y ago
    To be honest: I have no clue what the reason for this is. I just don’t see scroll bar which is annoying because it’s difficult to estimate how long the article is. Happens on a few sites but not many. BTW: why was the article flagged?
    - jacquesm 6y ago
      Ok, strange, if you ever figure out what it is please let me know, I don't have Safari to test on near me at the moment. Why the article was flagged? Probably because HN has its own share of COVID deniers and they can't help themselves. Uncomfortable truths and all that. I'm so going to track one down and interview them in six months. I'd love to see their retrospective, see if they have learned or not.
      - detaro 6y ago
        To be clear, I didn't flag this, but to me it's also firmly in the "general news" box. It starts with "If you've been following the news", repeats a bunch of widely reported/discussed things and ends with the general recommendations I get all the time. It's not bad, but also not particularly interesting and I'm not sure why it's here.
        baxtr 6y ago
        Yeah ok, but is that a valid reason to flag the article? Just don’t upvote it
crispyporkbites 6y ago
It’s very strange in the UK- we all know it’s coming, and have known for quite some time now, but the government still doesn’t enforce masks, doesn’t have enough tests and spent the entire of August convincing everyone to go out and eat in restaurants/bars (they gave half price meals), thousands of people were eating out several times a week during the period we should have been suppressing the virus. I don’t get it.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
  I don't think you're alone in being perplexed. I've seen neighbors take risks that strike me as insane. It's been a real eye-opener for me regarding differences in how people assess risk, make risk/reward tradeoffs, deal with stress, etc.
- Jonnax 6y ago
  That's what flattening the curve means. When this first kicked off. So many people were getting hospitalised that hospitals were overwhelmed and had to turn people away. Lockdown happened but still there were workers that had to continue working and other people that didn't care about the measures going out. A smaller proportion of the population were in the pool of potential covid catchers. This meant that hospitals could handle new admissions. Since proper hospital care reduced the chance of death. The UK government has not indicated that they intend to do a full lockdown intending eliminate covid.
hprotagonist 6y ago
I haven’t substantively changed my routine since lockdown started.
11235813213455 6y ago
Economy slow down is absolutely not a problem, it's a solution, for the environment, which is the most important thing on this planet. Also humans are not an especially endangered species, so there is not much to fear on that side
- eyeball 6y ago
  People dying to save the environment? You first buddy.
logicchains 6y ago
>COVID-19 has a fair chance of affecting you for much longer than that you are actually ill if you have a severe cases of it. And the really long term effects (as in decade+) won’t be known for many years so we are all guessing about what they could be, but if there are any they likely will not be good. This is just fear mongering. Millions of people have had covid now and so far there's zero evidence that it's significantly more likely to have long-term adverse side effects for the average person than any other respiratory virus. >Reacting decisively, forcefully and without delay could make the difference between a disaster of epic proportions or something that we will barely remember in twenty years. This is complete hyperbole. Sweden reacted minimally, and it was hardly a disaster of epic proportions: around four thousand people died in a country of ten million, and those were mostly nursing home residents, due to government failure to properly protect the nursing homes. In fact allowing the disease to spread seems to have brought some form of immunity, as predicted, since it's not experiencing a "second wave" like the other countries in Europe. > Let me make something very plain here: it is not a choice between the health on the one side and the economy on the other. COVID-19 will continue to hurt us economically until there is a vaccin or we get our act together and decide to deal with it frontally. This is also not true. After the lockdowns ended the economy has been continuously recovering, even in places where case numbers continued rising after lockdown (for instance the US, unemployment is falling now but covid cases never stopped rising). I don't understand how anybody can think the economic impact of literally forcing a bunch of businesses to close indefinitely is no worse than the impact of businesses just having fewer customers due to some people being scared to go because of the virus.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  > Millions of people have had covid now and so far there's zero evidence that it's significantly more likely to have long-term adverse side effects for the average person than any other respiratory virus. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.... > Sweden reacted minimally, and it was hardly a disaster of epic proportions: around four thousand people died in a country of ten million, and those were mostly nursing home residents, due to government failure to properly protect the nursing homes. In fact allowing the disease to spread seems to have brought some form of immunity, as predicted, since it's not experiencing a "second wave" like the other countries in Europe. So far. Sweden was a few months behind the curve with every other Western European country due to accidents of Geography. They may have gotten off lucky, but they are the exception. The Swedish demographics and Geography do not translate well to other countries in Western Europe, even so, the thing here is to compare Sweden with the countries around it and based on that they could have done a lot better than they did. > After the lockdowns ended the economy has been continuously recovering, even in places where case numbers continued rising after lockdown I'm not sure if we are looking at the same data but the economy is still very much depressed compared to where it was in March. This situation is not likely to improve any time soon, wishing it so won't make it so. As an employer I too would very much like things to go back to normal ASAP, however, I'm not going to pretend that things are better than they are.
berryjerry 6y ago
I'd like to see some actual data. This link has not a single number to back up it's claims. It feels like a politician saying "the data and science is on our side" yet never providing any data, studies or science, something every politician does. Round 2 is a good discussion but not using this article.
- bobongo 6y ago
  You will surely get the data by this time next year. If you survive.
grecht 6y ago
I feel like people around the world deal with this very differently, depending on how severely their country has been affected. My (European) country did quite well so far, so from our point of view he would certainly seem overly cautious. People have much less fear than during the first wave. They try to live with the risk of getting infected by accepting that it is real, but not letting it dictate everything they do, which would make life more "surviving" than "living". And I think that's a good approach! Within the confines of necessary precautions like wearing masks, keeping your distance, and banning big events, I think it is still possible to live a life which is worth living in a responsible way. After all, I also don't mind getting into a car while being fully aware of the risks (which could be worse than COVID's depending on where you live). So yes, I do think his recommendations are too drastic and also bad for your mental health. Next to that, most of them are impossible to realize for people who aren't lucky enough to be able to work from home etc. Maybe I would have a different opinion if I was a US resident.
- ryandrake 6y ago
  > Maybe I would have a different opinion if I was a US resident. No, unfortunately in the USA, sensible public health recommendations are considered drastic. Heaven forbid Kyle can't buy his khakis and Wendy can't visit her hair salon. Restaurant dining is an inalienable right. Wearing a mask is briefly uncomfortable, therefore totally unacceptable. Banning large gatherings is communism. You gotta flex your freedom at all times to show how much of a good American you are. 2020 has drained me of my empathy. It sometimes feels like half the country has chosen suicide pact to avoid temporary inconvenience.
haunter 6y ago
I wan to see some data about seasonal flu. Is that gone totally this year? Cause I know the yearly death toll of flu in my country (Hungary) and it's significantly higher than Covid so far. We usually have 3-6k death of flu each year https://akjournals.com/view/journals/650/161/23/article-p962.xml https://akjournals.com/view/journals/650/161/23/article-p962... And so far 683 deaths from Covid http://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/coronavirus-09-19/ http://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/coronavirus-09-19/
- dustinmoris 6y ago
  In the UK the flu has been killing more people than COVID over the last 25 weeks. That might change of course, but we’ve just been told this today during an interview with the health secretary Matt Hancock.
- aphextron 6y ago
  Flu is endemic. COVID is still spreading. This is a meaningless comparison. The only thing we can look at is case mortality and contagiousness, where COVID is 10x higher and 3x higher respectively than the flu
  - waihtis 6y ago
    Why is this post downvoted? This is literally the reason why COVID is treated the way it is.
aazaa 6y ago
Why was this story flagged? This happens all too frequently on HN. A story blows up, then gets flagged - with no explanation whatsoever. At the very least, it seems it would be in the interest of the moderators to include an explanatory comment as a guidepost for future submissions.
- _Microft 6y ago
  Who would flag a post like this? I would guess either people who are annoyed by the omnipresence of SARS-Cov2/COVID-19 coverage or people in denial.
- s9w 6y ago
  Because this is the daily covid panic submission.
  - _Microft 6y ago
    Panicking is stupid, precautions are not.
- stormcode 6y ago
  I'm with you here. I found this article useful and informative. Why is this being flagged?
- sp332 6y ago
  It's in the site guidelines for flaggers not to mention their flagging in the comments. Maybe there should be a separate area where they could put a reason though.
  - aazaa 6y ago
    Good point. What's the bar to a post getting marked "flagged" and removed from the front page? A single user flags? Two? Five? Up to the mods?
_Microft 6y ago
That being family or friends with someone does not influence how infectious they or one might be for each other, often seems to be forgotten or ignored as well.

68 points by AlexeyBrin 6y ago

asah 6y ago

Yep, sigh. NYC: https://www.reddit.com/r/nycCoronavirus/comments/ivtqgq/update_7_here_we_go_again_from_a_manhattan/ https://www.reddit.com/r/nycCoronavirus/comments/ivtqgq/upda... Raw data: https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+COVID+cases https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+COVID+cases

formercoder 6y ago
I read this post as well and while I respect this person his claim is hugely anecdotal. What if some decision far above his pay grade resulted in COVID patients being rerouted from other NYC hospitals to his? That could easily explain his experience without the idea that COVID is rising again in NYC. I’ll wait for the data to come in personally. The data you linked does not show a material change.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  Yes there’s been a lot of treating doctors front line anecdotes as though they’re the product of epidemiological research studies. You’re asking a person tasked with tending a single tree in their back yard about what the state of the forest looks like. Especially since the linked raw data there is completely flat.
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  "Fortunately" we won't have to wait very long to know the answer. The weather has just started turning chilly here in NYC as of this past week so people are now starting to stay indoors more. And schools might still reopen, but it's impossible to know for sure because our mayor's leadership is so incompetent.

raducu 6y ago

20 days after first symptoms, still tired and coughing, and I had very mild symptoms. I've been very strict about social distancing EXCEPT the day(the first in 6 months) I went out for beers with two friends at and outdoor space. What I want to say is: that one time you let your guard down is when you will get infected and the horrors begin, especially if you don't live alone and care for the people you live with!

matz1 6y ago
The fact that you have very mild symptoms, which most majority of the cases will be, should be viewed as a good thing, instead of fear and despite you've been very strict about social distancing and still got infected shows that lockdown is not effective. Here something for comparison : "Shopping in Sweden during Coronavirus" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQat0vX-wjM&feature=emb_title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQat0vX-wjM&feature=emb_titl... Hardly any mask and businesses seems normal
- arcticbull 6y ago
  Indeed if op knew the symptoms would be mild for them in advance, this statement would sound pretty crazy as it could be equally applied to the flu. If I knew the symptoms would be mild for me I’d run out and get it instead of hiding inside for 6 months and have it over with. Question is who is around you that might have a harder go of it.
  - ajmurmann 6y ago
    And we still don't seem to understand the long term damage that even mild COVID causes. I remember reading about people getting blood clots for instance
    - raducu 6y ago
      I did get d-dimers of 1.3 on my first test and 1.26 4 days later, so they got my anticoagulant shots in the hospital and aspirin at home, I initially did worry about that as well. The funny thing is the other patients had higher strength shots or for much longer -- and they had massive blood shot bruises on their arms/bellies and the nurses had to use some special cream, otherwise those bruises could clot and lead to stroke or heart attacks. So it was like, even the anti-cloting medicine was somehow trying to kill you in some perverse way.
  - raducu 6y ago
    But that was my exact thought -- would I do it again? Day 7 of mild symptoms and my relatives starting to get sick one by one -- NO! Day 20 -- still no! For 2-4 weeks after my daughter's symptoms I'll stress about kawasaki signs in her. Perhaps I'll change my time later, but I don't see the risks worth the rewards.

draw_down 6y ago

Perhaps on the plus side, at least in America, measures like distancing and masks are well-established, which very much wasn’t the case in May or so. And believe it or not, for the most part the measures are followed even by skeptics. I don’t think it’s really fair to portray the resistance or skepticism as only originating from idiocy or “fringe”. Authorities have said everything and its opposite in the last 6 or so months. They started by telling us this wasn’t really contagious so don’t worry, they told us not to procure masks before they told us to wear masks always, etc. Some people definitely use that to reach all sorts of ridiculous conclusions, no doubt. But I think you can’t discount how disorienting that all is, not to mention the whiplash of being told you must do x after you were told not to. There is also, again at least in America, a certain amount of resentment over health officials and others endorsing certain group events and condemning others, on a political basis, when the virus actually doesn’t care what your politics are. So yep, it is a political football.

acdha 6y ago
> Authorities have said everything and its opposite in the last 6 or so months. Right wingers in a couple countries said that. If you listened to actual experts, by February you knew it was highly contagious, asymptomatic spread was a big control problem, etc. The mask issue is the strongest charge because the goal of not buying up the same supplies needed by healthcare workers was confused into general advice not to wear them but by April that had been recognized as a mistake. The problem was that politics entered the picture when Trump blew off the experts briefing him starting in December and went with the Fox pundits desire first to hope that the economic impact wouldn’t be significant and later trying to pretend they hadn’t been so disastrously wrong. That meant that medical experts were overridden at previously non-political agencies, and that reporters were now pulled into treating advice as political opinions to be hedged.
- username90 6y ago
  > Right wingers in a couple countries said that. Is Cuomo the governor for New York a right winger? He downplayed the pandemic as late as march 18. Pretty sure he wasn't the only democrat doing it either. If he didn't downplay it New York wouldn't have had one of the worst corona responses in the world. Quotes: > "That is not going to happen, shelter in place, for New York City," Cuomo said on The Daily podcast by The New York Times. "For any city or county to take an emergency action, the state has to approve it. And I wouldn't approve shelter in place." > "Quarantine in place, you can't leave your home," Cuomo said. "The fear, the panic is a bigger problem than the virus." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cuomo-says-he-wont-approve-coronavirus-shelter-in-place-order-for-new-york-city.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cuomo-says-he-wont-approve-c...

prakhar897 6y ago

Here in india we are still at first wave lol.

dustinmoris 6y ago

> COVID-19 will continue to hurt us economically until there is a vaccin That’s hardly going to be true. Only because we’re told that we might get a vaccine people like the author make it sound like that this is the obvious thing to happen, but that is really no different than someone hoping to win the lottery. Realistically we need to consider that currently there is no vaccine and theoretically there might never be one. If the above statement is true then theoretically we will never recover from COVID until eternity which is obviously quite ridiculous to say. I think we should be planning for a way to live alongside COVID with the prospect of never having a vaccine and come up with a way of life that the population can get onboard with. Obviously we all hope that there will be a vaccine and we’ll get an easy way out, but it’s irresponsible to take hard damaging hits now with the outlook that this is a temporary hit only until the magic solution will follow shortly. We don’t know this. We should take actions which allow us to live in a worst case scenario, not the best case. Taking huge short term pains under the assumption of a magic way out doesn’t feel particularly smart. I think we need to consider more measured and balanced forms of dealing with this pandemic because we might be in this for a very long time.

Foober223 6y ago
Yes, we very well may be forced to live alongside the new corona. Just as we do the older coronas. Immunity will be gained in time with the cost of organ health and death along the way. No human decisions, action, or in-action are required for mankind to gain resistance eventually. But... a vaccine in the US exists and is effective at making an immune response in all testing so far. Maybe the vaccine won't stop all woes. Maybe the virus will mutate too fast. But the vaccine exists today. It's not a pie in the sky dream.
baxtr 6y ago
What about Sweden then?
- dustinmoris 6y ago
  What do you mean? Do they have a vaccine? I don’t think so, and Sweden did not lockdown because they know they have to find a way to possibly live with it for longer so if anything Sweden is a great example to support my statement.

Ozzie_osman 6y ago

Not going to comment on whether their strategy was effective or worth the cost in human toll, just going to say Sweden seems to be one of the few countries with no detectable signs of a second wave. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ EDIT: Before I start a flamewar, I guess I have to comment on whether I think Sweden's strategy was effective, so... 1. They might get a second wave in the future. But so far they seem to have avoided it. 2. It's too early to tell whether the cumulative loss in life and the cumulative economic damages will be better than those of other countries. So far, they do seem to have had more loss in life with less economic damage than their neighbors, but if they don't get a second wave, they might end up in a much better spot economically. So yeah, in conclusion, we should keep watching them to see how things play out but not draw conclusions like "they had more loss in life" or "they had less damage to the economy", because it's still too early.

djsjejjdi324 6y ago
You mean this Sweden? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behin...
- zwily 6y ago
  When that interview was done, Sweden was in a pretty bad spot. Today their strategy is looking much more successful. Do you have anything more recent from him?
  - bshipp 6y ago
    Today everyone's strategy is looking more successful as we leave the summer. We will see how it all stacks up in the next six months after flu season.
CydeWeys 6y ago
Sweden also has one of the highest per capita COVID-19 mortality rates in the world, yet still suffered economically from the virus same as anyone else. This should always be in the conversation every time we're talking about the Sweden response.

baxtr 6y ago

As a side note: it’s really annoying that the scroll bar is hidden on that page (Safari/iPhone).

jacquesm 6y ago
I suspect that is a safari issue, I'm not aware of my website doing anything on purpose to give that effect. If you can tell me what to change I'll be happy to do so.
- baxtr 6y ago
  To be honest: I have no clue what the reason for this is. I just don’t see scroll bar which is annoying because it’s difficult to estimate how long the article is. Happens on a few sites but not many. BTW: why was the article flagged?
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    Ok, strange, if you ever figure out what it is please let me know, I don't have Safari to test on near me at the moment. Why the article was flagged? Probably because HN has its own share of COVID deniers and they can't help themselves. Uncomfortable truths and all that. I'm so going to track one down and interview them in six months. I'd love to see their retrospective, see if they have learned or not.
    - detaro 6y ago
      To be clear, I didn't flag this, but to me it's also firmly in the "general news" box. It starts with "If you've been following the news", repeats a bunch of widely reported/discussed things and ends with the general recommendations I get all the time. It's not bad, but also not particularly interesting and I'm not sure why it's here.
      - baxtr 6y ago
        Yeah ok, but is that a valid reason to flag the article? Just don’t upvote it

crispyporkbites 6y ago

It’s very strange in the UK- we all know it’s coming, and have known for quite some time now, but the government still doesn’t enforce masks, doesn’t have enough tests and spent the entire of August convincing everyone to go out and eat in restaurants/bars (they gave half price meals), thousands of people were eating out several times a week during the period we should have been suppressing the virus. I don’t get it.

deleted 6y ago
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DoofusOfDeath 6y ago
I don't think you're alone in being perplexed. I've seen neighbors take risks that strike me as insane. It's been a real eye-opener for me regarding differences in how people assess risk, make risk/reward tradeoffs, deal with stress, etc.
Jonnax 6y ago
That's what flattening the curve means. When this first kicked off. So many people were getting hospitalised that hospitals were overwhelmed and had to turn people away. Lockdown happened but still there were workers that had to continue working and other people that didn't care about the measures going out. A smaller proportion of the population were in the pool of potential covid catchers. This meant that hospitals could handle new admissions. Since proper hospital care reduced the chance of death. The UK government has not indicated that they intend to do a full lockdown intending eliminate covid.

hprotagonist 6y ago

I haven’t substantively changed my routine since lockdown started.

11235813213455 6y ago

Economy slow down is absolutely not a problem, it's a solution, for the environment, which is the most important thing on this planet. Also humans are not an especially endangered species, so there is not much to fear on that side

eyeball 6y ago
People dying to save the environment? You first buddy.

logicchains 6y ago

>COVID-19 has a fair chance of affecting you for much longer than that you are actually ill if you have a severe cases of it. And the really long term effects (as in decade+) won’t be known for many years so we are all guessing about what they could be, but if there are any they likely will not be good. This is just fear mongering. Millions of people have had covid now and so far there's zero evidence that it's significantly more likely to have long-term adverse side effects for the average person than any other respiratory virus. >Reacting decisively, forcefully and without delay could make the difference between a disaster of epic proportions or something that we will barely remember in twenty years. This is complete hyperbole. Sweden reacted minimally, and it was hardly a disaster of epic proportions: around four thousand people died in a country of ten million, and those were mostly nursing home residents, due to government failure to properly protect the nursing homes. In fact allowing the disease to spread seems to have brought some form of immunity, as predicted, since it's not experiencing a "second wave" like the other countries in Europe. > Let me make something very plain here: it is not a choice between the health on the one side and the economy on the other. COVID-19 will continue to hurt us economically until there is a vaccin or we get our act together and decide to deal with it frontally. This is also not true. After the lockdowns ended the economy has been continuously recovering, even in places where case numbers continued rising after lockdown (for instance the US, unemployment is falling now but covid cases never stopped rising). I don't understand how anybody can think the economic impact of literally forcing a bunch of businesses to close indefinitely is no worse than the impact of businesses just having fewer customers due to some people being scared to go because of the virus.

jacquesm 6y ago
> Millions of people have had covid now and so far there's zero evidence that it's significantly more likely to have long-term adverse side effects for the average person than any other respiratory virus. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.... > Sweden reacted minimally, and it was hardly a disaster of epic proportions: around four thousand people died in a country of ten million, and those were mostly nursing home residents, due to government failure to properly protect the nursing homes. In fact allowing the disease to spread seems to have brought some form of immunity, as predicted, since it's not experiencing a "second wave" like the other countries in Europe. So far. Sweden was a few months behind the curve with every other Western European country due to accidents of Geography. They may have gotten off lucky, but they are the exception. The Swedish demographics and Geography do not translate well to other countries in Western Europe, even so, the thing here is to compare Sweden with the countries around it and based on that they could have done a lot better than they did. > After the lockdowns ended the economy has been continuously recovering, even in places where case numbers continued rising after lockdown I'm not sure if we are looking at the same data but the economy is still very much depressed compared to where it was in March. This situation is not likely to improve any time soon, wishing it so won't make it so. As an employer I too would very much like things to go back to normal ASAP, however, I'm not going to pretend that things are better than they are.

berryjerry 6y ago

I'd like to see some actual data. This link has not a single number to back up it's claims. It feels like a politician saying "the data and science is on our side" yet never providing any data, studies or science, something every politician does. Round 2 is a good discussion but not using this article.

bobongo 6y ago
You will surely get the data by this time next year. If you survive.

grecht 6y ago

I feel like people around the world deal with this very differently, depending on how severely their country has been affected. My (European) country did quite well so far, so from our point of view he would certainly seem overly cautious. People have much less fear than during the first wave. They try to live with the risk of getting infected by accepting that it is real, but not letting it dictate everything they do, which would make life more "surviving" than "living". And I think that's a good approach! Within the confines of necessary precautions like wearing masks, keeping your distance, and banning big events, I think it is still possible to live a life which is worth living in a responsible way. After all, I also don't mind getting into a car while being fully aware of the risks (which could be worse than COVID's depending on where you live). So yes, I do think his recommendations are too drastic and also bad for your mental health. Next to that, most of them are impossible to realize for people who aren't lucky enough to be able to work from home etc. Maybe I would have a different opinion if I was a US resident.

ryandrake 6y ago
> Maybe I would have a different opinion if I was a US resident. No, unfortunately in the USA, sensible public health recommendations are considered drastic. Heaven forbid Kyle can't buy his khakis and Wendy can't visit her hair salon. Restaurant dining is an inalienable right. Wearing a mask is briefly uncomfortable, therefore totally unacceptable. Banning large gatherings is communism. You gotta flex your freedom at all times to show how much of a good American you are. 2020 has drained me of my empathy. It sometimes feels like half the country has chosen suicide pact to avoid temporary inconvenience.

haunter 6y ago

I wan to see some data about seasonal flu. Is that gone totally this year? Cause I know the yearly death toll of flu in my country (Hungary) and it's significantly higher than Covid so far. We usually have 3-6k death of flu each year https://akjournals.com/view/journals/650/161/23/article-p962.xml https://akjournals.com/view/journals/650/161/23/article-p962... And so far 683 deaths from Covid http://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/coronavirus-09-19/ http://abouthungary.hu/news-in-brief/coronavirus-09-19/

dustinmoris 6y ago
In the UK the flu has been killing more people than COVID over the last 25 weeks. That might change of course, but we’ve just been told this today during an interview with the health secretary Matt Hancock.
aphextron 6y ago
Flu is endemic. COVID is still spreading. This is a meaningless comparison. The only thing we can look at is case mortality and contagiousness, where COVID is 10x higher and 3x higher respectively than the flu
- waihtis 6y ago
  Why is this post downvoted? This is literally the reason why COVID is treated the way it is.

aazaa 6y ago

Why was this story flagged? This happens all too frequently on HN. A story blows up, then gets flagged - with no explanation whatsoever. At the very least, it seems it would be in the interest of the moderators to include an explanatory comment as a guidepost for future submissions.

_Microft 6y ago
Who would flag a post like this? I would guess either people who are annoyed by the omnipresence of SARS-Cov2/COVID-19 coverage or people in denial.
s9w 6y ago
Because this is the daily covid panic submission.
- _Microft 6y ago
  Panicking is stupid, precautions are not.
stormcode 6y ago
I'm with you here. I found this article useful and informative. Why is this being flagged?
sp332 6y ago
It's in the site guidelines for flaggers not to mention their flagging in the comments. Maybe there should be a separate area where they could put a reason though.
- aazaa 6y ago
  Good point. What's the bar to a post getting marked "flagged" and removed from the front page? A single user flags? Two? Five? Up to the mods?

_Microft 6y ago

That being family or friends with someone does not influence how infectious they or one might be for each other, often seems to be forgotten or ignored as well.