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This seems to fundamentally miss the reason why we forecast. To quote Eisenhower: >Peace-time plans are of no particular value, but peace-time planning is indi

This seems to fundamentally miss the reason why we forecast. To quote Eisenhower: >Peace-time plans are of no particular value, but peace-time planning is indispensable. The end result of these forecasts isn't particularly valuable, but the thinking used to develop the forecast can help us preempt, react, and respond. This is like criticizing climate scientists because they didn't get the exact amount of warming or sea level rise correct in their predictions. I'm not saying every (or any) consultant forecast is worth reading, but to dismiss the idea of forecasting because we are wrong is a fundamental misunderstanding of the value of forecasts.

senux 6y ago
> I'm not saying every (or any) consultant forecast is worth reading, but to dismiss the idea of forecasting because we are wrong is a fundamental misunderstanding of the value of forecasts. I agree with your original statement but in the portion above you talk about reading someone else's forecast as if that was equivalent to the forecast 'thinking process' you had mentioned. Reading the end-result of another individual's analysis won't necessarily give you the benefits you just mentioned.