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> this is already proving the case Except it doesn't seem like the violence and rioting so far has actually helped Trump: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features

> this is already proving the case Except it doesn't seem like the violence and rioting so far has actually helped Trump: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-law-and-order-message-isnt-resonating-with-most-americans/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-law-and-order-me...

jariel 6y ago
Your reference doesn't support your point. Trump's 'Law and Justice' messaging may not be helping, but his approval ratings have improved as the protests have continued and none of the data in the article diminishes that. It doesn't surprise me that many people support Biden as the mostly likely to 'quell tensions' etc. - however - that's not the same thing as the instinctive response to seeing widespread violence on TV. Listen to Lemon [1]: "“It’s showing up in the polling. It’s showing up in focus groups. It is the only thing right now that is sticking,” Lemon said ahead of "CNN Tonight" on Tuesday. “The riots and the protests have become indistinguishable." This I believe. More directly from Nate Silver here [2] where he is unsure there is a correlation, but since that article, the meme has continued and Trump has drifted up for no other apparent reason along the same trend line. I don't like the man, the 'trend' is not good. Just a few weeks ago it looked like this would be over, now, there are many paths for him to come to win. A showdown over Ginsberg replacement may be the decisive battle. [1] https://thehill.com/homenews/media/513742-cnns-lemon-warns-of-democratic-blind-spot-on-riots-it-shows-up-in-the-polling https://thehill.com/homenews/media/513742-cnns-lemon-warns-o... [2] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-a-backlash-against-black-lives-matter-hurt-biden-the-two-dont-appear-linked-so-far/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-a-backlash-agains...

jariel 6y ago

Your reference doesn't support your point. Trump's 'Law and Justice' messaging may not be helping, but his approval ratings have improved as the protests have continued and none of the data in the article diminishes that. It doesn't surprise me that many people support Biden as the mostly likely to 'quell tensions' etc. - however - that's not the same thing as the instinctive response to seeing widespread violence on TV. Listen to Lemon [1]: "“It’s showing up in the polling. It’s showing up in focus groups. It is the only thing right now that is sticking,” Lemon said ahead of "CNN Tonight" on Tuesday. “The riots and the protests have become indistinguishable." This I believe. More directly from Nate Silver here [2] where he is unsure there is a correlation, but since that article, the meme has continued and Trump has drifted up for no other apparent reason along the same trend line. I don't like the man, the 'trend' is not good. Just a few weeks ago it looked like this would be over, now, there are many paths for him to come to win. A showdown over Ginsberg replacement may be the decisive battle. [1] https://thehill.com/homenews/media/513742-cnns-lemon-warns-of-democratic-blind-spot-on-riots-it-shows-up-in-the-polling https://thehill.com/homenews/media/513742-cnns-lemon-warns-o... [2] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-a-backlash-against-black-lives-matter-hurt-biden-the-two-dont-appear-linked-so-far/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/could-a-backlash-agains...