> “ How does virtually every tech company become twice as valuable in 6 months? They don't.” I think you’re actually wrong on this point. Entrenched incumbent

> “ How does virtually every tech company become twice as valuable in 6 months? They don't.” I think you’re actually wrong on this point. Entrenched incumbent companies like Amazon and Microsoft do become 2x valuable in a time when all kinds of growing startup competition is shuttering due to covid-19 related economic changes. It’s not an expression of say Amazon’s existing business capabilities, but rather its moat and financial security to be in leader position when the crises subside, and in a position to squash or acquire poorly capitalized new competition that couldn’t endure the financial stress of the economic situation. Very unlike 2000, you have several huge, multi-industry conglomerate tech companies with vastly more products, reach and relative capital reserves. It makes total sense to speculate those incumbents will completely rule the day for the next 10 years, and it will take a long time for new, effective competition to return. When people consider where Amazon will be in 10 years, ~2x price change during the middle of a global crisis where Amazon seems to be doing ok - this makes sense. Like any price speculation, there’s risk and it might not be correct. But it’s not a wildly crazy bubble like 1999 - the situations are very different and the types of businesses seeing high valuations are totally different.