7 ms·

I'd like to offer a counterpoint on the masks: as soon as the epidemic started, the Hong Kong population -remembering SARS 15 years ago- started wearing masks

by Renaud 6y ago

I'd like to offer a counterpoint on the masks: as soon as the epidemic started, the Hong Kong population -remembering SARS 15 years ago- started wearing masks and sanitizing hands. Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated area in the world. There is no way to implement effective social distancing here The result so far? one of the lowest rate of infection and death per capita of any developed country: 675/M and 12/M respectively. To put this in perspective, the UK and US are at 50x that death rate. So we may speculate about what had a strongest effect -sanitizing hands, masks, temporary closure of schools and entertainment venues, partial work form home- but it seems difficult to argue that masks have no effects as most of these measures were also tried elsewhere. A major difference being that, in HK, no-one leaves the house without wearing a mask.

gridlockd 6y ago
I'm not arguing that masks don't work, I'm arguing that the evidence is of low quality. Not that the evidence is wrong, or that people shouldn't wear masks. If you're advocating the wearing of masks premised on that sort of evidence, you should be advocating Vitamin D supplementation, and you probably should be advocating Zinc+HCQ as a prophylactic, because you just lowered your scientific standards by that much.
- nicoburns 6y ago
  What sort of evidence would you like to see?
  - gridlockd 6y ago
    Well, of course I'd like to see a double-blind placebo-controlled gold-standard trial on a million subjects from diverse backgrounds! In fact, I don't need more evidence to wear masks. I have no problem with wearing a mask. I have no problem with advocating the wearing of masks in an honest fashion. It's plausible that masks do help to some degree. It's however also plausible that they hurt in some ways, that they serve as a reservoir for viruses and bacteria. If anything, I have a problem with the intellectual dishonesty surrounding the advocacy of masks.
    - samatman 6y ago
      There is abundant circumstantial evidence that these two hypotheses are not of equal plausibility.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
    - Renaud 6y ago
      If you see the various implementations of measures in different countries as large scale experiments, I think you can derive some useful information and answer your own questions. There is maybe some point of diminishing returns in wearing masks, but what the limit is isn't clear. Sweden seems to agree with you and against general use of masks, although my trust in their approach is limited by their pretty terrible results: death rate of nearly 600/M against HK's 12/M. Regarding increased risk of falling ill because of the mask, there is not much evidence to support that. That's not saying it doesn't or can't happen but while you emphasise a lack of evidence to convince you that masks are worthwhile at scale, there is even less evidence that wearing a mask will cause any other type of hurt that would cancel-out the benefits. I personaly hate masks, they itch, are uncomfortable and they pollute. It's clear they are not a panacea. They are however part of the small set of limited practical measures that we can take to help slow the rate of infection (by limiting the exposure of others to the crap we exhale). Hong Kong will be an interesting experiment to follow because I foresee that people will continue wearing masks long after everyone else. We'll see the long term effects this has on the 8M people living there. I'm sure it will be worthy of a few papers.
      - gridlockd 6y ago
        > Sweden seems to agree with you and against general use of masks, although my trust in their approach is limited by their pretty terrible results: death rate of nearly 600/M against HK's 12/M. No matter how often I say "I'm not against masks", people still read it is "this guy is against masks", merely because I question the quality of the scientific evidence. No sane discussion on this topic is possible anymore, it's all "which side are you on, boy?", which is disheartening. > That's not saying it doesn't or can't happen but while you emphasise a lack of evidence to convince you that masks are worthwhile at scale, there is even less evidence that wearing a mask will cause any other type of hurt that would cancel-out the benefits. I literally said I don't need more evidence in favor of masks. It's not about masks, it's about Vitamin D in light of our treatment of masks. I don't need more evidence in favor of Vitamin-D supplementation, either. Go for it, just be honest about it.
- swader999 6y ago
  I'm doing D, C, Quercetain and Zinc.
bamboozled 6y ago
Similar to Tokyo, the masks were on very early in the game, so far it seems relatively mild compared to The USA.

by Renaud 6y ago

gridlockd 6y ago

I'm not arguing that masks don't work, I'm arguing that the evidence is of low quality. Not that the evidence is wrong, or that people shouldn't wear masks. If you're advocating the wearing of masks premised on that sort of evidence, you should be advocating Vitamin D supplementation, and you probably should be advocating Zinc+HCQ as a prophylactic, because you just lowered your scientific standards by that much.

nicoburns 6y ago
What sort of evidence would you like to see?
- gridlockd 6y ago
  Well, of course I'd like to see a double-blind placebo-controlled gold-standard trial on a million subjects from diverse backgrounds! In fact, I don't need more evidence to wear masks. I have no problem with wearing a mask. I have no problem with advocating the wearing of masks in an honest fashion. It's plausible that masks do help to some degree. It's however also plausible that they hurt in some ways, that they serve as a reservoir for viruses and bacteria. If anything, I have a problem with the intellectual dishonesty surrounding the advocacy of masks.
  - samatman 6y ago
    There is abundant circumstantial evidence that these two hypotheses are not of equal plausibility.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - Renaud 6y ago
    If you see the various implementations of measures in different countries as large scale experiments, I think you can derive some useful information and answer your own questions. There is maybe some point of diminishing returns in wearing masks, but what the limit is isn't clear. Sweden seems to agree with you and against general use of masks, although my trust in their approach is limited by their pretty terrible results: death rate of nearly 600/M against HK's 12/M. Regarding increased risk of falling ill because of the mask, there is not much evidence to support that. That's not saying it doesn't or can't happen but while you emphasise a lack of evidence to convince you that masks are worthwhile at scale, there is even less evidence that wearing a mask will cause any other type of hurt that would cancel-out the benefits. I personaly hate masks, they itch, are uncomfortable and they pollute. It's clear they are not a panacea. They are however part of the small set of limited practical measures that we can take to help slow the rate of infection (by limiting the exposure of others to the crap we exhale). Hong Kong will be an interesting experiment to follow because I foresee that people will continue wearing masks long after everyone else. We'll see the long term effects this has on the 8M people living there. I'm sure it will be worthy of a few papers.
    - gridlockd 6y ago
      > Sweden seems to agree with you and against general use of masks, although my trust in their approach is limited by their pretty terrible results: death rate of nearly 600/M against HK's 12/M. No matter how often I say "I'm not against masks", people still read it is "this guy is against masks", merely because I question the quality of the scientific evidence. No sane discussion on this topic is possible anymore, it's all "which side are you on, boy?", which is disheartening. > That's not saying it doesn't or can't happen but while you emphasise a lack of evidence to convince you that masks are worthwhile at scale, there is even less evidence that wearing a mask will cause any other type of hurt that would cancel-out the benefits. I literally said I don't need more evidence in favor of masks. It's not about masks, it's about Vitamin D in light of our treatment of masks. I don't need more evidence in favor of Vitamin-D supplementation, either. Go for it, just be honest about it.
swader999 6y ago
I'm doing D, C, Quercetain and Zinc.

bamboozled 6y ago

Similar to Tokyo, the masks were on very early in the game, so far it seems relatively mild compared to The USA.