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Building a mass market EV five years ago would have been suicide for any existing manufacturer Indeed, but they all had to pretend it was right around the corn

Building a mass market EV five years ago would have been suicide for any existing manufacturer Indeed, but they all had to pretend it was right around the corner to keep their shareholders happy while Tesla sped ahead with a genuinely very difficult mission.

reitzensteinm 6y ago
Yeah. But be careful about extrapolating too much from the past. It took 8 years for a decent VW Model S/X competitor to show up (Taycan/E-Tron), 3 for the Model 3 (ID.3) and it will be just 1 for the Model Y (ID.4). I believe Tesla will lead in technology for the foreseeable future, but unlike just a few years ago, from now on you're actually going to have to think about what brand to buy, rather than what Tesla to buy.
- codeulike 6y ago
  Being able to manufacture in volume is one of the criteria needed to beat Tesla, its yet to be seen whether VW can do that. Batteries are the key to that. The EPA range for the Taycan is 201 miles, for the e-Tron 204 miles. Frankly, both extremely crappy for the price. So its very debatable to call them competitors to the Model S/X. The Taycan can beat the S around the track, I'll concede that. But I take your point, Tesla's lead will shrink. Although I think they are much further ahead in software than people realise.
  - reitzensteinm 6y ago
    The E-Tron range really is poor, the whole platform is really, but the EPA Taycan range is bogus. Car and Driver found about a 10% gap between Taycan and Model S range at highway speeds. Might be a crappy test, but you'd never ever get close to that if the real range was 400 vs 200 miles. I'm calling them competitors because they're selling. The E-Tron is outselling the Model X and Taycan revenue is probably not too far from that of the Model S. Ultimately, consumers opening their wallet is what counts. I'd have called the Bolt a Model 3 competitor based on the on paper specs, but people were just not interested. It's selling today at deep discounts to clear all the unsold 2020 inventory.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  > and it will be just 1 for the Model Y (ID.4) I'd say Volkswagen are doing four Model Y competitors so far. VW ID.4, Skoda Enyaq, Audi Q4 e-tron, and the Cupra Tavascan. The Porsche Macan will also have a BEV version in a couple of years.

reitzensteinm 6y ago

Yeah. But be careful about extrapolating too much from the past. It took 8 years for a decent VW Model S/X competitor to show up (Taycan/E-Tron), 3 for the Model 3 (ID.3) and it will be just 1 for the Model Y (ID.4). I believe Tesla will lead in technology for the foreseeable future, but unlike just a few years ago, from now on you're actually going to have to think about what brand to buy, rather than what Tesla to buy.

codeulike 6y ago
Being able to manufacture in volume is one of the criteria needed to beat Tesla, its yet to be seen whether VW can do that. Batteries are the key to that. The EPA range for the Taycan is 201 miles, for the e-Tron 204 miles. Frankly, both extremely crappy for the price. So its very debatable to call them competitors to the Model S/X. The Taycan can beat the S around the track, I'll concede that. But I take your point, Tesla's lead will shrink. Although I think they are much further ahead in software than people realise.
- reitzensteinm 6y ago
  The E-Tron range really is poor, the whole platform is really, but the EPA Taycan range is bogus. Car and Driver found about a 10% gap between Taycan and Model S range at highway speeds. Might be a crappy test, but you'd never ever get close to that if the real range was 400 vs 200 miles. I'm calling them competitors because they're selling. The E-Tron is outselling the Model X and Taycan revenue is probably not too far from that of the Model S. Ultimately, consumers opening their wallet is what counts. I'd have called the Bolt a Model 3 competitor based on the on paper specs, but people were just not interested. It's selling today at deep discounts to clear all the unsold 2020 inventory.
clouddrover 6y ago
> and it will be just 1 for the Model Y (ID.4) I'd say Volkswagen are doing four Model Y competitors so far. VW ID.4, Skoda Enyaq, Audi Q4 e-tron, and the Cupra Tavascan. The Porsche Macan will also have a BEV version in a couple of years.