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The news is always [major car manufacturer] will have a huge range of EVs available in [3 to 5 years - pick one]. I mean, good luck to them, but I'm getting ti

The news is always [major car manufacturer] will have a huge range of EVs available in [3 to 5 years - pick one]. I mean, good luck to them, but I'm getting tired of all the years of announcements and then not much actually happening on the ground. This announcement shit has been going on for a decade or more. The GM Bolt was pretty good, so credit for that, but they couldn't manufacture it to make a profit. And it was never available in my country (UK). As another classic example, here's a VW press relase from 2013, when they declared they would lead the world on EVs by 2018. September 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Volkswagen Group has set its sights on global market leadership in electric mobility. "We are starting at exactly the right time. We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018", Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn, CEO of Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft, said on the eve of the 65th International Motor Show in Frankfurt am Main. https://tass.com/press-releases/700457 https://tass.com/press-releases/700457 I think Kia and Hyundai are the only people genuinely giving Tesla a run for their money at the mo. Last time I checked they were constrained by battery supplies, maybe they've fixed that now. Oh and the long range Renault Zoe is pretty good. And maybe the long range Leaf but its a bit pricey and skimps on battery cooling. (edit: my unspoken assumption here is that only EVs with 200+ mile range are really worth talking about at this point)

davedx 6y ago
I get the skepticism but VW have done what they said, a couple of years later than originally planned, not bad considering the significant challenges of dieselgate fallout and building a modular EV powertrain for multiple vehicle classes within an existing ICE infrastructure. Just yesterday on the motorway here I saw an advert for the new ID3 - it’s here. Profitability is a related but separate issue. Getting to market at all is a significant step forwards. Time will tell how the financials look for these auto companies.
- codeulike 6y ago
  I get the skepticism but VW have done what they said, a couple of years later than originally planned Well, they've just about managed to release a 200+ mile EV at roughly the same price/range as their competitors * . Thats hardly 'top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility'. * and thats only because the Tesla Model 3 is extra expensive in Europe, until they get that German factory fired up Just yesterday on the motorway here I saw an advert for the new ID3 - it’s here. Is the ID3 actually delivered to customers and on the road though? Wasn't last time I checked.
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    Yes. Deliveries started a week ago. Here's someone posting videos about his new ID.3 to his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/BatteryLife/videos https://www.youtube.com/c/BatteryLife/videos He's tried various drives and charging sessions. The matrix headlights are quite nice.
    - codeulike 6y ago
      Well thats something. I hope the new VW platform turns out to be as world changing as they are making it out to be.
  - reitzensteinm 6y ago
    Are you comparing USD and EUR prices? Because VAT is a larger difference than import duties, and GF Berlin won't help there.
    - codeulike 6y ago
      I'm basing it on Musks statements that to get the cars as cheap as possible they need to be manufactured in the appropriate continent. Thats the point of the German gigafactory. But indeed who knows what the eventual UK Model 3 price will be. Better than it currently is for sure.
      - reitzensteinm 6y ago
        Depending on where tariffs land after Brexit, it's possible there's little difference. GF Berlin will probably be more efficient than Fremont. But so will Texas and whatever comes after.
        davedx 6y ago
        Don't forget transportation costs too. Not cheap shipping containers full of cars halfway across the world. Fremont -> Rotterdam is quite a sail!
clouddrover 6y ago
> As another classic example, here's a VW press relase from 2013, when they declared they would lead the world on EVs by 2018. Volkswagen is the biggest BEV maker in Europe today: https://www.schmidtmatthias.de/post/april-2020-european-electric-car-market-top-sellers https://www.schmidtmatthias.de/post/april-2020-european-elec... Give them a couple more years and they will be the biggest BEV maker worldwide. Here are some BEVs you can buy from them either right now or soon: - Porsche Taycan - Audi e-Tron - Audi Q4 e-tron - Audi e-tron GT - VW e-Golf (being replaced by the ID.3) - VW ID.3 - VW ID.4 - Skoda Enyaq And more to come each year. Volkswagen is walking the walk.
- codeulike 6y ago
  Biggest BEV maker if you include PHEVs, but thats not what I'm talking about. Which of those models actually exist and which ones are any good? Because the last electric Audi I heard about was feeble. The Porche has good handling going for it but not much else.
  - clouddrover 6y ago
    No, biggest BEV maker in Europe right now. The chart is a bit confusing.
    - codeulike 6y ago
      Hmm ok, just scraping ahead of Nissan/Renault. OK well thats something. What have they been selling 30k of between Jan and Apr then? e-Golfs and e-Trons? edit: WAIT, your chart is 'Western Europe'. If you look at all of Europe, YTD sales (up to July) you get: Renault Zoe - 46259 Tesla Model 3 - 34014 VWe-Golf - 21794 Audi e-Tron - 16643 Kona EV - 15971 https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/08/europe-july-2020.html https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/08/europe-july-2020.html Strong showing by the e-Golf (how are they selling that many of a car with 125 mile range??) and e-Tron but even if you add them together Renault are still way ahead. Well deserved, the Zoe is a great package. Edit: WAIT WAIT didn't go far enough down the list to catch the e-up E-up - 9975 So that does indeed put vw in the lead, and mostly with sales of previous-gen EVs with 100/125 range. How are they shifting those?
reitzensteinm 6y ago
I share your frustration. But companies really are ramping up now, after a decade of platitudes and concept cars. I suspect "manufacture it to make a profit" is the reason for the change. It's only now possible for manufacturers to build a platform like MEB and scale it over enough sales with low enough unit costs to make a profit. Building a mass market EV five years ago would have been suicide for any existing manufacturer. So compliance EV foot in the water conversions is all we've had. Even Tesla, which has industry leading R&D efficiency, is still quite far in the red cumulatively. They don't break out costs enough to know if the Model 3 program has broken even yet, but if it has yet it's probably only recently. They get great margins, but they spent a ton of money to ramp up.
- codeulike 6y ago
  Building a mass market EV five years ago would have been suicide for any existing manufacturer Indeed, but they all had to pretend it was right around the corner to keep their shareholders happy while Tesla sped ahead with a genuinely very difficult mission.
  - reitzensteinm 6y ago
    Yeah. But be careful about extrapolating too much from the past. It took 8 years for a decent VW Model S/X competitor to show up (Taycan/E-Tron), 3 for the Model 3 (ID.3) and it will be just 1 for the Model Y (ID.4). I believe Tesla will lead in technology for the foreseeable future, but unlike just a few years ago, from now on you're actually going to have to think about what brand to buy, rather than what Tesla to buy.
    - codeulike 6y ago
      Being able to manufacture in volume is one of the criteria needed to beat Tesla, its yet to be seen whether VW can do that. Batteries are the key to that. The EPA range for the Taycan is 201 miles, for the e-Tron 204 miles. Frankly, both extremely crappy for the price. So its very debatable to call them competitors to the Model S/X. The Taycan can beat the S around the track, I'll concede that. But I take your point, Tesla's lead will shrink. Although I think they are much further ahead in software than people realise.
fma 6y ago
Progress takes time. It's been baby steps and I think GM is walking now...in January GM announced a new plant to the tune of a $2.2 billion investment. It builds only EV. "But with the official announcement about the facility today, and a battery gigafactory in the works, GM begins to transform Detroit-Hamtramck for an electric future, with a growing workforce dedicated to EVs. The pieces are coming together." https://electrek.co/2020/01/27/gm-declares-detroit-hamtramck-its-first-all-ev-plant-in-the-heart-of-motor-city/ https://electrek.co/2020/01/27/gm-declares-detroit-hamtramck...
jabl 6y ago
Isn't the Bolt in the EU called Opel/Vauxhall Ampera? I've seen those around here.
- codeulike 6y ago
  The Ampera is the hybrid (like the GM Volt). The EV version is called Opel Ampera-e in mainland Europe but never made it to the UK

davedx 6y ago

I get the skepticism but VW have done what they said, a couple of years later than originally planned, not bad considering the significant challenges of dieselgate fallout and building a modular EV powertrain for multiple vehicle classes within an existing ICE infrastructure. Just yesterday on the motorway here I saw an advert for the new ID3 - it’s here. Profitability is a related but separate issue. Getting to market at all is a significant step forwards. Time will tell how the financials look for these auto companies.

codeulike 6y ago
I get the skepticism but VW have done what they said, a couple of years later than originally planned Well, they've just about managed to release a 200+ mile EV at roughly the same price/range as their competitors * . Thats hardly 'top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility'. * and thats only because the Tesla Model 3 is extra expensive in Europe, until they get that German factory fired up Just yesterday on the motorway here I saw an advert for the new ID3 - it’s here. Is the ID3 actually delivered to customers and on the road though? Wasn't last time I checked.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  Yes. Deliveries started a week ago. Here's someone posting videos about his new ID.3 to his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/BatteryLife/videos https://www.youtube.com/c/BatteryLife/videos He's tried various drives and charging sessions. The matrix headlights are quite nice.
  - codeulike 6y ago
    Well thats something. I hope the new VW platform turns out to be as world changing as they are making it out to be.
- reitzensteinm 6y ago
  Are you comparing USD and EUR prices? Because VAT is a larger difference than import duties, and GF Berlin won't help there.
  - codeulike 6y ago
    I'm basing it on Musks statements that to get the cars as cheap as possible they need to be manufactured in the appropriate continent. Thats the point of the German gigafactory. But indeed who knows what the eventual UK Model 3 price will be. Better than it currently is for sure.
    - reitzensteinm 6y ago
      Depending on where tariffs land after Brexit, it's possible there's little difference. GF Berlin will probably be more efficient than Fremont. But so will Texas and whatever comes after.
      - davedx 6y ago
        Don't forget transportation costs too. Not cheap shipping containers full of cars halfway across the world. Fremont -> Rotterdam is quite a sail!

clouddrover 6y ago

> As another classic example, here's a VW press relase from 2013, when they declared they would lead the world on EVs by 2018. Volkswagen is the biggest BEV maker in Europe today: https://www.schmidtmatthias.de/post/april-2020-european-electric-car-market-top-sellers https://www.schmidtmatthias.de/post/april-2020-european-elec... Give them a couple more years and they will be the biggest BEV maker worldwide. Here are some BEVs you can buy from them either right now or soon: - Porsche Taycan - Audi e-Tron - Audi Q4 e-tron - Audi e-tron GT - VW e-Golf (being replaced by the ID.3) - VW ID.3 - VW ID.4 - Skoda Enyaq And more to come each year. Volkswagen is walking the walk.

codeulike 6y ago
Biggest BEV maker if you include PHEVs, but thats not what I'm talking about. Which of those models actually exist and which ones are any good? Because the last electric Audi I heard about was feeble. The Porche has good handling going for it but not much else.
- clouddrover 6y ago
  No, biggest BEV maker in Europe right now. The chart is a bit confusing.
  - codeulike 6y ago
    Hmm ok, just scraping ahead of Nissan/Renault. OK well thats something. What have they been selling 30k of between Jan and Apr then? e-Golfs and e-Trons? edit: WAIT, your chart is 'Western Europe'. If you look at all of Europe, YTD sales (up to July) you get: Renault Zoe - 46259 Tesla Model 3 - 34014 VWe-Golf - 21794 Audi e-Tron - 16643 Kona EV - 15971 https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/08/europe-july-2020.html https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/08/europe-july-2020.html Strong showing by the e-Golf (how are they selling that many of a car with 125 mile range??) and e-Tron but even if you add them together Renault are still way ahead. Well deserved, the Zoe is a great package. Edit: WAIT WAIT didn't go far enough down the list to catch the e-up E-up - 9975 So that does indeed put vw in the lead, and mostly with sales of previous-gen EVs with 100/125 range. How are they shifting those?

reitzensteinm 6y ago

I share your frustration. But companies really are ramping up now, after a decade of platitudes and concept cars. I suspect "manufacture it to make a profit" is the reason for the change. It's only now possible for manufacturers to build a platform like MEB and scale it over enough sales with low enough unit costs to make a profit. Building a mass market EV five years ago would have been suicide for any existing manufacturer. So compliance EV foot in the water conversions is all we've had. Even Tesla, which has industry leading R&D efficiency, is still quite far in the red cumulatively. They don't break out costs enough to know if the Model 3 program has broken even yet, but if it has yet it's probably only recently. They get great margins, but they spent a ton of money to ramp up.

codeulike 6y ago
Building a mass market EV five years ago would have been suicide for any existing manufacturer Indeed, but they all had to pretend it was right around the corner to keep their shareholders happy while Tesla sped ahead with a genuinely very difficult mission.
- reitzensteinm 6y ago
  Yeah. But be careful about extrapolating too much from the past. It took 8 years for a decent VW Model S/X competitor to show up (Taycan/E-Tron), 3 for the Model 3 (ID.3) and it will be just 1 for the Model Y (ID.4). I believe Tesla will lead in technology for the foreseeable future, but unlike just a few years ago, from now on you're actually going to have to think about what brand to buy, rather than what Tesla to buy.
  - codeulike 6y ago
    Being able to manufacture in volume is one of the criteria needed to beat Tesla, its yet to be seen whether VW can do that. Batteries are the key to that. The EPA range for the Taycan is 201 miles, for the e-Tron 204 miles. Frankly, both extremely crappy for the price. So its very debatable to call them competitors to the Model S/X. The Taycan can beat the S around the track, I'll concede that. But I take your point, Tesla's lead will shrink. Although I think they are much further ahead in software than people realise.

fma 6y ago

Progress takes time. It's been baby steps and I think GM is walking now...in January GM announced a new plant to the tune of a $2.2 billion investment. It builds only EV. "But with the official announcement about the facility today, and a battery gigafactory in the works, GM begins to transform Detroit-Hamtramck for an electric future, with a growing workforce dedicated to EVs. The pieces are coming together." https://electrek.co/2020/01/27/gm-declares-detroit-hamtramck-its-first-all-ev-plant-in-the-heart-of-motor-city/ https://electrek.co/2020/01/27/gm-declares-detroit-hamtramck...

jabl 6y ago

Isn't the Bolt in the EU called Opel/Vauxhall Ampera? I've seen those around here.

codeulike 6y ago
The Ampera is the hybrid (like the GM Volt). The EV version is called Opel Ampera-e in mainland Europe but never made it to the UK