5 ms·

very speculative opinion.

throwaway189262 6y ago
Look at PE ratios, percent of non-professional investors in the market, average valuation of tech companies at age X, percent of stock market value in tech, length of current bull market, stock performance vs economic growth. There's so many metrics pointing towards a bubble, and not many that don't. Of course not everyone believes it, which is why market is so high. And I'm an admitted skeptic that's shorting this market so take that how you will. You will find some mainstream investors calling the market a bubble which is not really normal. All bubbles are obvious in retrospect, and even many investors that think we're in a bubble will join the frenzy assuming they won't be left holding the cards.
- rvn1045 6y ago
  The consistent growth tech companies like Amazon are able to maintain is INSANE. They're continuing to grow at a staggering rate despite their already massive size. There's also almost half the world that doesn't even use the internet in any meaningful capacity. There's a lot of growth left.
  - mschuster91 6y ago
    > There's also almost half the world that doesn't even use the internet in any meaningful capacity. There's a lot of growth left. But unlike growth in domestic Western markets, this one will be hard for the companies to expand upon on their own. 1B people in China cannot be reached at all by Western companies, the half billion in South America will depend on someone getting rid of the cartels before meaningful buildout of infrastructure can happen (and that won't be possible until the US and Europe drastically change their approach to drugs, until then most countries will effectively be narco states), and the 1B people in Africa... an even tougher nut to crack, given that there are a lot of countries in there that can be considered "failed states" or various degrees of dictatorships, and the rest tend to be extremely poor as a result of hundreds of years of colonialism.
    - jiofih 6y ago
      I don’t know which year in the past you’re commenting from, but South America is nearing 80% penetration and already has ~500m people online. Cartels are an exclusively Colombian thing, courtesy of the USA. The African continent is really is the last big market left, and only 1B people.
  - jodrellblank 6y ago
    > "There's also almost half the world that doesn't even use the internet in any meaningful capacity. There's a lot of growth left." Albert Bartlett[1] would like to have a word. When you find a new petri-dish, and it's as large as the current one - as much space as has ever been used before in all of history, a vast bounty of unexplored space - how long will it last? One minute. One doubling period to go from 50% full to 100% full, and that's it. (paraphrased) [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZCm2QQZVYk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZCm2QQZVYk
- adwi 6y ago
  I share your sentiment. What should a semi-informed investor like myself buy (or, sell into the future I suppose) to express this in a position in the market? I consider myself more a value investor, is there a vehicle that’s more geared toward next ~ 6 months 40% decline vs. Vegas style highly levered bet?
- ericmay 6y ago
  I’m not really a fan of P/E ratios versus something like PEG or PEGY [1] [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp
- JMTQp8lwXL 6y ago
  I hope your timing is right. By nearly all measures, much of what you said was true in 2017 and 2018. And if you shorted then, you would've missed the continued 2 or 3 years of growth. All economic cycles come to an end eventually, but there is no telling when it will occur.
  - mcguire 6y ago
    The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  - jeffreyrogers 6y ago
    Timing is the big thing. Look at all the people who've said Tesla is overvalued (which it almost certainly is) who would've lost tons of money shorting it or buying puts. I think trying to time the market is not worth most retail investors' time.

Look at PE ratios, percent of non-professional investors in the market, average valuation of tech companies at age X, percent of stock market value in tech, length of current bull market, stock performance vs economic growth. There's so many metrics pointing towards a bubble, and not many that don't. Of course not everyone believes it, which is why market is so high. And I'm an admitted skeptic that's shorting this market so take that how you will. You will find some mainstream investors calling the market a bubble which is not really normal. All bubbles are obvious in retrospect, and even many investors that think we're in a bubble will join the frenzy assuming they won't be left holding the cards.

rvn1045 6y ago
The consistent growth tech companies like Amazon are able to maintain is INSANE. They're continuing to grow at a staggering rate despite their already massive size. There's also almost half the world that doesn't even use the internet in any meaningful capacity. There's a lot of growth left.
- mschuster91 6y ago
  > There's also almost half the world that doesn't even use the internet in any meaningful capacity. There's a lot of growth left. But unlike growth in domestic Western markets, this one will be hard for the companies to expand upon on their own. 1B people in China cannot be reached at all by Western companies, the half billion in South America will depend on someone getting rid of the cartels before meaningful buildout of infrastructure can happen (and that won't be possible until the US and Europe drastically change their approach to drugs, until then most countries will effectively be narco states), and the 1B people in Africa... an even tougher nut to crack, given that there are a lot of countries in there that can be considered "failed states" or various degrees of dictatorships, and the rest tend to be extremely poor as a result of hundreds of years of colonialism.
  - jiofih 6y ago
    I don’t know which year in the past you’re commenting from, but South America is nearing 80% penetration and already has ~500m people online. Cartels are an exclusively Colombian thing, courtesy of the USA. The African continent is really is the last big market left, and only 1B people.
- jodrellblank 6y ago
  > "There's also almost half the world that doesn't even use the internet in any meaningful capacity. There's a lot of growth left." Albert Bartlett[1] would like to have a word. When you find a new petri-dish, and it's as large as the current one - as much space as has ever been used before in all of history, a vast bounty of unexplored space - how long will it last? One minute. One doubling period to go from 50% full to 100% full, and that's it. (paraphrased) [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZCm2QQZVYk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZCm2QQZVYk
adwi 6y ago
I share your sentiment. What should a semi-informed investor like myself buy (or, sell into the future I suppose) to express this in a position in the market? I consider myself more a value investor, is there a vehicle that’s more geared toward next ~ 6 months 40% decline vs. Vegas style highly levered bet?
ericmay 6y ago
I’m not really a fan of P/E ratios versus something like PEG or PEGY [1] [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp
JMTQp8lwXL 6y ago
I hope your timing is right. By nearly all measures, much of what you said was true in 2017 and 2018. And if you shorted then, you would've missed the continued 2 or 3 years of growth. All economic cycles come to an end eventually, but there is no telling when it will occur.
- mcguire 6y ago
  The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- jeffreyrogers 6y ago
  Timing is the big thing. Look at all the people who've said Tesla is overvalued (which it almost certainly is) who would've lost tons of money shorting it or buying puts. I think trying to time the market is not worth most retail investors' time.