6 ms·

Getting a conservative justice on the court is a massive draw for Trump's reelection. That's why he released a list of candidates before both elections.

by 1986 6y ago

dmurray 6y ago
I don't get this theory. There are a lot of people out there who want to see a conservative justice elected, but prefer Biden over Trump in the White House? Or a lot of conservative voters who are apathetic about the presidency and might not vote, but would be convinced to come to the polls if a Supreme Court spot was at stake? I mean I can believe both of those sets of people exist, but hardly that they're numerous enough to dictate the election strategy.
- rayiner 6y ago
  I bet there are a lot of independents who would prefer Trump to nominate a Justice and then lose the election.
  - evan_ 6y ago
    there are zero people who fit this description
    - int_19h 6y ago
      A lot of right libertarians are in this boat, actually.
      - evan_ 6y ago
        Why? Trump is never going to appoint a justice who will legitimately advance any cause of liberty. He’s going to appoint someone who will protect his power and the power of the Republican Party. Trump making more appointments is exactly the same as him getting another 4 years, except it will last decades.
        rayiner 6y ago
        Gorsuch is the most libertarian-leaning Justice we’ve had in decades. Others on the short list, such as Barrett or Kethledge, also have significant records of originalism with respect to the scope of the administrative state. I don’t think libertarians realize where we are in 2020. Lots of culture war stuff from the last few decades where libertarians sided with liberals (abortion, contraception, same-sex marriage) has now flipped and then battleground is keeping the government from forcing people to participate in those things: Catholics being forced to perform elective abortions, nuns being forced to pay for contraception, people being forced to participate in same-sex weddings as bakers (and presumably caterers, etc.)
        evan_ 6y ago
        > Catholics being forced to perform elective abortions, nuns being forced to pay for contraception, people being forced to participate in same-sex weddings as bakers so the solution is to ban abortions, contraceptives, and same-sex marriage altogether?
        rayiner 6y ago
        In almost 50 years of a conservative Supreme Court majority, what major liberal precedent has been overturned? Basically none. Heck, Roe itself was a 7-2 decision with two Nixon appointees in the majority. Roberts won’t vote to overturn Roe, neither will Gorsuch, and probably neither will Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh, a Kennedy disciple, won’t undo Obergefell, probably neither will Gorsuch. History shows that conservative justice at best hold the line on social issues, or continue to move forward. Look at the political debates likely to come up over the next 10 years and tell me where libertarians are aligned with liberals. Apart from the things I mentioned above, cases that will come up may include the constitutionality of a wealth tax, changes to equal protection to allow discrimination in favor of particular groups, firearms confiscation, etc. (I’m not saying all of these will happen, I’m pointing out what the next legal battlegrounds will be.)
        throwaway6274 6y ago
- blisseyGo 6y ago
  Trump's got a 96% approval amongst conservatives.
- spuz 6y ago
  It's not so much that they prefer Biden over Trump. But they dislike Trump. I know people who cannot stand his antics on Twitter or the way he disrespects women or his blatant infidelity to his wives. However they strongly believe in conservative and Christian values and will hold their nose while the vote for him to try to ensure the supreme court votes their way on issues such as abortion. Trump knows this and uses it as a carrot to encourage these people to vote for him.
  - dmurray 6y ago
    Yes, there are lots of people who will tell you how much they dislike Trump, then vote for him. I'm saying that those people still exist even if the Supreme Court spot isn't at stake: a Republican White House still gives them a better chance of legislation upholding conservative values in the future.
dehrmann 6y ago
There are a lot of evangelical Christians who reluctantly voted for Trump because he'd pack the court (and they like Pence). With one more conservative justice, they might decide the court is adequately packed.
int_19h 6y ago
He can still nominate after the election even if he loses it - his term doesn't end immediately. It's not really like the other two times - not like 2018 because there was no vacancy on the court then, and not like 2016 because the president and the Senate were deadlocked then.

Getting a conservative justice on the court is a massive draw for Trump's reelection. That's why he released a list of candidates before both elections.

by 1986 6y ago

Getting a conservative justice on the court is a massive draw for Trump's reelection. That's why he released a list of candidates before both elections.

dmurray 6y ago

I don't get this theory. There are a lot of people out there who want to see a conservative justice elected, but prefer Biden over Trump in the White House? Or a lot of conservative voters who are apathetic about the presidency and might not vote, but would be convinced to come to the polls if a Supreme Court spot was at stake? I mean I can believe both of those sets of people exist, but hardly that they're numerous enough to dictate the election strategy.

rayiner 6y ago
I bet there are a lot of independents who would prefer Trump to nominate a Justice and then lose the election.
- evan_ 6y ago
  there are zero people who fit this description
  - int_19h 6y ago
    A lot of right libertarians are in this boat, actually.
    - evan_ 6y ago
      Why? Trump is never going to appoint a justice who will legitimately advance any cause of liberty. He’s going to appoint someone who will protect his power and the power of the Republican Party. Trump making more appointments is exactly the same as him getting another 4 years, except it will last decades.
      - rayiner 6y ago
        Gorsuch is the most libertarian-leaning Justice we’ve had in decades. Others on the short list, such as Barrett or Kethledge, also have significant records of originalism with respect to the scope of the administrative state. I don’t think libertarians realize where we are in 2020. Lots of culture war stuff from the last few decades where libertarians sided with liberals (abortion, contraception, same-sex marriage) has now flipped and then battleground is keeping the government from forcing people to participate in those things: Catholics being forced to perform elective abortions, nuns being forced to pay for contraception, people being forced to participate in same-sex weddings as bakers (and presumably caterers, etc.)
        evan_ 6y ago
        > Catholics being forced to perform elective abortions, nuns being forced to pay for contraception, people being forced to participate in same-sex weddings as bakers so the solution is to ban abortions, contraceptives, and same-sex marriage altogether?
        rayiner 6y ago
        In almost 50 years of a conservative Supreme Court majority, what major liberal precedent has been overturned? Basically none. Heck, Roe itself was a 7-2 decision with two Nixon appointees in the majority. Roberts won’t vote to overturn Roe, neither will Gorsuch, and probably neither will Kavanaugh. Kavanaugh, a Kennedy disciple, won’t undo Obergefell, probably neither will Gorsuch. History shows that conservative justice at best hold the line on social issues, or continue to move forward. Look at the political debates likely to come up over the next 10 years and tell me where libertarians are aligned with liberals. Apart from the things I mentioned above, cases that will come up may include the constitutionality of a wealth tax, changes to equal protection to allow discrimination in favor of particular groups, firearms confiscation, etc. (I’m not saying all of these will happen, I’m pointing out what the next legal battlegrounds will be.)
        throwaway6274 6y ago
blisseyGo 6y ago
Trump's got a 96% approval amongst conservatives.
spuz 6y ago
It's not so much that they prefer Biden over Trump. But they dislike Trump. I know people who cannot stand his antics on Twitter or the way he disrespects women or his blatant infidelity to his wives. However they strongly believe in conservative and Christian values and will hold their nose while the vote for him to try to ensure the supreme court votes their way on issues such as abortion. Trump knows this and uses it as a carrot to encourage these people to vote for him.
- dmurray 6y ago
  Yes, there are lots of people who will tell you how much they dislike Trump, then vote for him. I'm saying that those people still exist even if the Supreme Court spot isn't at stake: a Republican White House still gives them a better chance of legislation upholding conservative values in the future.

dehrmann 6y ago

There are a lot of evangelical Christians who reluctantly voted for Trump because he'd pack the court (and they like Pence). With one more conservative justice, they might decide the court is adequately packed.

int_19h 6y ago

He can still nominate after the election even if he loses it - his term doesn't end immediately. It's not really like the other two times - not like 2018 because there was no vacancy on the court then, and not like 2016 because the president and the Senate were deadlocked then.