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A political showdown over the nominee would very well be the decisive moment of this campaign and determine the presidency. The Dems took a huge risk with Kava

by jariel 6y ago

A political showdown over the nominee would very well be the decisive moment of this campaign and determine the presidency. The Dems took a huge risk with Kavanaugh going after the way they did (allegations against an 18 year old at a party where technically nothing happened???) but were saved by a a deeply emotive testimony by a woman who pulled a lot of heartstrings and came off credibly. That was an incredible risk because if that performance was not across the line ... it would have completely backfired. Also - merely making a nomination makes Trump look strong. Winning a competition against Dems - which I think he can because he has the votes - looks strong. I don't see any way for the Dems to win with this unless Trump nominates a total fool. Trump is flirting with the same poll numbers Hillary had las time and Biden is not a strong candidate ... this is not a good position for the Dems to be in.

ModernMech 6y ago
> Also - merely making a nomination makes Trump look strong. Winning a competition against Dems - which I think he can because he has the votes - looks strong. I don't see any way for the Dems to win with this unless Trump nominates a total fool. The conventional political wisdom after Kavanaugh was that Democrats would be demoralized for the 2018 election and would fail to retake the House. What actually happened was one of their biggest House wins ever. > Trump is flirting with the same poll numbers Hillary had las time and Biden is not a strong candidate ... this is not a good position for the Dems to be in. Kind of? There's no Johnson this time getting 8% of the vote (at this point in the race), so that group is dispersed between Trump and Biden. So while Trump is about where Hillary was at this point, Biden is cracking 50% in national polling on average, which is much higher than Clinton in 2016 and definitely not good for Trump. Biden is much stronger than Hillary at this point, especially in swing states like Florida, where he is polling well with older voters (a complete flip from 2016, where older voters in Florida went decisively for Trump). If you look at Clinton's support in Florida it looks like a sine wave over the race. Biden's support is much more steady, so that is a difference. Biden wins Florida and it's over.

by jariel 6y ago

ModernMech 6y ago

> Also - merely making a nomination makes Trump look strong. Winning a competition against Dems - which I think he can because he has the votes - looks strong. I don't see any way for the Dems to win with this unless Trump nominates a total fool. The conventional political wisdom after Kavanaugh was that Democrats would be demoralized for the 2018 election and would fail to retake the House. What actually happened was one of their biggest House wins ever. > Trump is flirting with the same poll numbers Hillary had las time and Biden is not a strong candidate ... this is not a good position for the Dems to be in. Kind of? There's no Johnson this time getting 8% of the vote (at this point in the race), so that group is dispersed between Trump and Biden. So while Trump is about where Hillary was at this point, Biden is cracking 50% in national polling on average, which is much higher than Clinton in 2016 and definitely not good for Trump. Biden is much stronger than Hillary at this point, especially in swing states like Florida, where he is polling well with older voters (a complete flip from 2016, where older voters in Florida went decisively for Trump). If you look at Clinton's support in Florida it looks like a sine wave over the race. Biden's support is much more steady, so that is a difference. Biden wins Florida and it's over.