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Those experts at the WHO predicted, in March, that if Sweden does not enforce a lockdown as recommended by the WHO, it will have 96,000 deaths on 1-July. The n

Those experts at the WHO predicted, in March, that if Sweden does not enforce a lockdown as recommended by the WHO, it will have 96,000 deaths on 1-July. The non-expert Michael Levitt, predicted at the same time, by fitting 3 parameters of a Gompertz distribution (And no other knowledge), that Sweden will have 5000 deaths on 1-July if things continue as they were when he made the prediction (that is, no WHO recommended lockdown). I'll leave it to you to lookup the Swedish death count on 1-July to see if the expert epidemiologists from the WHO had a better idea than non-expert Levitt. (But I'll give you a hint: It is mid september, and Sweden has ~6000 deaths).

13415 6y ago
Nonsense, and also irrelevant. You're picking out one predictive model that got it wrong. I'd like to see this model, by the way. I've seen numerous models that got it right, and in any case I was talking about the advice experts gave. Nobody doubts that Sweden's death toll would be much lower if they had done a lockdown like almost every other country. In fact, the Swedish lead epidemiologist admitted that mistakes were made and that they failed to protect the elderly. The WHO advice was much better than what Swedish advisors came up with. Besides that, I was not talking about WHO experts but about experts in general. Every country has them, and they supply the data to WHO. Last but not least, you cannot evaluate a model on the basis of a singular prediction.