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Playing devil's advocate: The death counts are what they are, but on the other hand, Sweden is extremely unlikely to experience a 2nd/3rd wave, which is experi

Playing devil's advocate: The death counts are what they are, but on the other hand, Sweden is extremely unlikely to experience a 2nd/3rd wave, which is experienced now by the countries you listed - it's not even halftime yet fighting the virus, it's too early to say who did better. The "any way you slice the data" is not so clear either. As someone pointed out, Sweden had fewer deaths (in the thousands!) in previous flu seasons, I've read the hypothesis put forward that part of the reason Denmark has done so much better is that their weakest already succumbed to the flu in 2017/2018, whereas Sweden's were spared. Nearly impossible to prove or disprove, but there ARE ways to slice the data that make the attribution to policy less convincing. > Now Sweden has a population slightly less than Finland and Norway combined, and figures can be difficult to compare, but still it's hard to avoid the conclusion that so far, around 4000 people in Sweden have died because of differences in policy compared to its neighbours. Another way to slice the data that is important: Sweden has, by far, more black skinned immigrants than Norway (and I think Finland too) -- which are faring worth everywhere, likely some sort of sunlight/vit-D related process. A significant number of those who died in Sweden are immigrants. If you compare Sweden to Belgium (which had strict lockdown, but similar immigration patterns), the policy argument is less convincing again.

kybernetikos 6y ago
I find the flu argument pretty weak, but it ultimately boils down to a claim of demographic differences (that Sweden had more people at the beginning of the pandemic that were likely to die than neighbouring countries). Belgium feels like a cherry picked example, having as it does a miserably poor record compared to its own neighbours, and being rather unlike the nordic countries in lots of other likely relevant ways - climate, population density, etc. Perhaps a more likely demographic cause might be the age of the population in Sweden, which I believe does have a particularly old population. The racial/skin colour angle is difficult to evaluate. There may be something to it, but there are so many potentially confounding factors - immigrant populations are unlike the native population in a number of ways. Some of the ways they are different are that they are overrepresented in high risk groups like front line medical workers or living in poorer quality accommodation or having more difficulty getting access to health care. If the primary cause that they are overrepresented in covid-19 deaths relates to any of those, then having a lower immigrant population may just redistribute the deaths rather than reduce them (the bottom socioeconomic 10% will likely be overrepresented in deaths, and that bottom 10% may feature more or fewer immigrants).
- beagle3 6y ago
  My point is that it’s not as clear cut as “any way you slice the data”. Sweden’s immigrant population is not remotely like the US one. They are NOT over represented in healthcare work, AFAIK they are underrepresented (to a fault, of having almost no representation). They do live in lower quality housing, on average, but have access to nominally equivalent medical services (Sweden has socialized everything; once you are “in the system” you are entitled to everything, though rich people can buy some extras) Also, It’s a little disingenuous to say “Belgium is cherry picked” without extending a similar courtesy to Sweden. All in all, it’s too early to call winners and losers, and there are many ways to slice the data that don’t make Sweden look bad at all.

kybernetikos 6y ago

I find the flu argument pretty weak, but it ultimately boils down to a claim of demographic differences (that Sweden had more people at the beginning of the pandemic that were likely to die than neighbouring countries). Belgium feels like a cherry picked example, having as it does a miserably poor record compared to its own neighbours, and being rather unlike the nordic countries in lots of other likely relevant ways - climate, population density, etc. Perhaps a more likely demographic cause might be the age of the population in Sweden, which I believe does have a particularly old population. The racial/skin colour angle is difficult to evaluate. There may be something to it, but there are so many potentially confounding factors - immigrant populations are unlike the native population in a number of ways. Some of the ways they are different are that they are overrepresented in high risk groups like front line medical workers or living in poorer quality accommodation or having more difficulty getting access to health care. If the primary cause that they are overrepresented in covid-19 deaths relates to any of those, then having a lower immigrant population may just redistribute the deaths rather than reduce them (the bottom socioeconomic 10% will likely be overrepresented in deaths, and that bottom 10% may feature more or fewer immigrants).

beagle3 6y ago
My point is that it’s not as clear cut as “any way you slice the data”. Sweden’s immigrant population is not remotely like the US one. They are NOT over represented in healthcare work, AFAIK they are underrepresented (to a fault, of having almost no representation). They do live in lower quality housing, on average, but have access to nominally equivalent medical services (Sweden has socialized everything; once you are “in the system” you are entitled to everything, though rich people can buy some extras) Also, It’s a little disingenuous to say “Belgium is cherry picked” without extending a similar courtesy to Sweden. All in all, it’s too early to call winners and losers, and there are many ways to slice the data that don’t make Sweden look bad at all.