What makes you think the natural selection/evolution is more likely? Of course at the scale of China, having a virus outbreak due to a natural virus mutation i

What makes you think the natural selection/evolution is more likely? Of course at the scale of China, having a virus outbreak due to a natural virus mutation is not a rare event. According to Wikipedia, there have been 3 virus outbreaks in "wet markets" in the last 20 years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_market). That makes about 1 outbreak in 7 years. Now China is big! There are 108 towns with more than 1m population (https://all-populations.com/en/cn/list-of-cities-in-china-by-population.html https://all-populations.com/en/cn/list-of-cities-in-china-by...). What is the probability for an outbreak to occur in a given city? Again that is going to be a very rough estimate. Let's say there are 100 "wet markets", about one per city >1m. That make the probability for a natural virus outbreak in a given "wet market" to be 1 in 700 years. Now if you want to argue what is the most likely event: - a natural outbreak in Wuhan: probability is about 1 in 700 years - a virus leak from the Wuhan BSL4 lab. Note the Wuhan's lab is the ONLY BSL4 lab in China. Have you any kind of information that makes you believe the probability for a virus leak to be significantly LESS than 1 in 700 years?