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> ... a gradual and linear melting rate is not what we should expect to see going forward. This article seems to combine the lost civilization pseudo-science o

> ... a gradual and linear melting rate is not what we should expect to see going forward. This article seems to combine the lost civilization pseudo-science of Randall Carlson and Graham Hancock with the myopia of catastrophic climate change alarmists that ignore paleoclimate evidence. This evidence is captured in the LR04 Benthic Stack data and is fully supported by ice core and other data sources. Modelling the fluid dynamics following the termination of the last glacial maxima is non-trivial but the broad strokes are well understood. The 120 meter change in sea levels during the 100-kyr glacial cycles are associated with predictable ice sheets, post-glacial rebound, glacial lakes, and meltwater pulses. Something similar to Glacial Lake Missoula occurred after each termination. What we should expect to see moving forward is the start of the re-accumulation of glacial ice timed to the Milankovich Cycles. The question is how big a monkey wrench does human forced atmospheric CO2 throw into the established cycles.

ncmncm 6y ago
Except nobody knows what actually caused the beginning or ending of an ice age. It is always too easy to think you must know what is relevant, after learning what seems like a lot.
- sradman 6y ago
  The Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) [1] are based on the empirically derived LR04 Benthic Stack. We don't (yet) know how to model the termination triggers nor the precise magnitude of each glacial cycle but what this means in practice is that we don't understand why the system transitioned from 41 kyr cycles to 100 kyr cycles; the regular glacial cycles themselves are very real. The "nobody knows" claim applies no more to the LR04/MIS evidence than it does to tectonic plate evidence. This is well established science not an arena to practice Hayekian "fatal conceit" dismissals. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_isotope_stage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_isotope_stage
  - ncmncm 6y ago
    "Nobody knows what makes the sun rise." "We have excellent records of its reliable daily rise, going back centuries." But sunrise is caused by rotation of a spheroid planet, in no way implied by those records.

ncmncm 6y ago

Except nobody knows what actually caused the beginning or ending of an ice age. It is always too easy to think you must know what is relevant, after learning what seems like a lot.

sradman 6y ago
The Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) [1] are based on the empirically derived LR04 Benthic Stack. We don't (yet) know how to model the termination triggers nor the precise magnitude of each glacial cycle but what this means in practice is that we don't understand why the system transitioned from 41 kyr cycles to 100 kyr cycles; the regular glacial cycles themselves are very real. The "nobody knows" claim applies no more to the LR04/MIS evidence than it does to tectonic plate evidence. This is well established science not an arena to practice Hayekian "fatal conceit" dismissals. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_isotope_stage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_isotope_stage
- ncmncm 6y ago
  "Nobody knows what makes the sun rise." "We have excellent records of its reliable daily rise, going back centuries." But sunrise is caused by rotation of a spheroid planet, in no way implied by those records.