Partly NYC is relatively empty and relatively cautious since it was present and real, but partly it’s likely many times more folks have had it in NYC than has b

Partly NYC is relatively empty and relatively cautious since it was present and real, but partly it’s likely many times more folks have had it in NYC than has been widely reported, possibly one or two orders of magnitude more, leaving fewer candidates now. If, back in the spring, you worked backwards from NYC deaths using mortality rates within the lowest ranges in US studies, then it seemed likely that before summer infections may have already approached most of the population. Mortality rates of 0.5% would have a far higher number of infected, as noted in this April suggestion of much wider prevalence, which if the case ”the real number of infected people in LA County would be 28 to 55 times higher” — https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200424/more-data-bolsters-higher-covid-prevalence https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200424/more-data-bolsters-... Aside from that math, a variety of sources suggest perhaps 25% of New Yorkers infected in April, such as: A claim in June of ”roughly 25% by June” — https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/roughly-25percent-of-new-york-city-has-probably-been-infected-with-coronavirus-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/roughly-25percent-of-new-yor... A July claim (opinion piece, not an epidemiologist) of an even earlier peak, Feb and March: ”With a city population estimated by the Census Bureau at 8,336,817, the 22.7% prevalence from the late-April state survey would mean that nearly 1.9 million New Yorkers had already contracted the disease as of early April.” — https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-23/new-york-city-s-covid-19-peak-likely-occurred-in-march-not-april https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-23/new-yo... A July claim that ”over 60% of residents in some boroughs tested positive for the virus.”: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/nyc-neighborhoods-obtained-herd-immunity-study-suggests/story?id=71692365 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/nyc-neighborhoods-obtained-her...