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New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States

44 points by mzs 6y ago

mzs 6y ago
Future of the human climate niche Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer PNAS May 26, 2020 117 (21) 11350-11355; first published May 4, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 Contributed by Marten Scheffer, October 27, 2019 (sent for review June 12, 2019; reviewed by Victor Galaz and Luke Kemp) https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350
ideals 6y ago
The date ranges they show are 2040-2060. Mortgages are typically 30years. If you buy a house this year you'll be right in the middle of this outcome when your mortgage is paid off and at an age where you'll be looking at retirement. I'm imagining it being much harder to sell a house in an area with many web bulb days and resulting in a cratering real estate market in those areas most affected. How long until climate change starts driving real estateprices and also where people decide to start a career or family? The USG does pretty much everything it can to prop up home prices as well, possibly as a counter argument to the above question. Will that trend continue when it becomes overwhelmingly difficult to live/farm in those areas?
- mzs 6y ago
  It's already happening. It became virtually impossible to buy private home owner's insurance in parts of CA after wildfires. CA gov stepped in and created a one year moratorium on insurance COs cancelling those policies. That is about to lapse and what happens next is really up in the air. It certainly will be quite more difficult to sell a home difficult/expensive to insure.
EricE 6y ago
This is still a big freaking country - I don't see population shifts as cataclysmic. They have happened all throughout our history. Also I think it's folly to assume people will congregate in large metropolitan areas like they have in the past. One of the blessings of COVID-19 is many companies have woken up to the power and benefits of remote work. I expect our society to decentralize and if this study is accurate I'd see it as just another factor accelerating some of these trends.
rayiner 6y ago
> Populous cities with expensive real estate, including Houston A and Miami B, will see damage tallied in the billions — losses worth several percentage points of GDP — largely driven by storms, sea level rise and deaths from high heat, Hess said. Climate will have a larger proportional impact in rural places like Gulf County, Florida C, which might lose half its economy. Even in the high emissions scenario, apart from some hard hit gulf coast areas, the losses will be a couple of percent loss in GDP. With some places even increasing in GDP due to better suitability for agriculture? Why do we need a “total economic mobilization” to avoid this?
- Arnt 6y ago
  A few per cent loss here, a few per cent there, it adds up.
- dctoedt 6y ago
  You're pretty optimistic about the net effect.
  - rayiner 6y ago
    I’m just going by the map in the article.

44 points by mzs 6y ago

mzs 6y ago

Future of the human climate niche Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler, Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, and Marten Scheffer PNAS May 26, 2020 117 (21) 11350-11355; first published May 4, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 Contributed by Marten Scheffer, October 27, 2019 (sent for review June 12, 2019; reviewed by Victor Galaz and Luke Kemp) https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350

ideals 6y ago

The date ranges they show are 2040-2060. Mortgages are typically 30years. If you buy a house this year you'll be right in the middle of this outcome when your mortgage is paid off and at an age where you'll be looking at retirement. I'm imagining it being much harder to sell a house in an area with many web bulb days and resulting in a cratering real estate market in those areas most affected. How long until climate change starts driving real estateprices and also where people decide to start a career or family? The USG does pretty much everything it can to prop up home prices as well, possibly as a counter argument to the above question. Will that trend continue when it becomes overwhelmingly difficult to live/farm in those areas?

mzs 6y ago
It's already happening. It became virtually impossible to buy private home owner's insurance in parts of CA after wildfires. CA gov stepped in and created a one year moratorium on insurance COs cancelling those policies. That is about to lapse and what happens next is really up in the air. It certainly will be quite more difficult to sell a home difficult/expensive to insure.

EricE 6y ago

This is still a big freaking country - I don't see population shifts as cataclysmic. They have happened all throughout our history. Also I think it's folly to assume people will congregate in large metropolitan areas like they have in the past. One of the blessings of COVID-19 is many companies have woken up to the power and benefits of remote work. I expect our society to decentralize and if this study is accurate I'd see it as just another factor accelerating some of these trends.

rayiner 6y ago

> Populous cities with expensive real estate, including Houston A and Miami B, will see damage tallied in the billions — losses worth several percentage points of GDP — largely driven by storms, sea level rise and deaths from high heat, Hess said. Climate will have a larger proportional impact in rural places like Gulf County, Florida C, which might lose half its economy. Even in the high emissions scenario, apart from some hard hit gulf coast areas, the losses will be a couple of percent loss in GDP. With some places even increasing in GDP due to better suitability for agriculture? Why do we need a “total economic mobilization” to avoid this?

Arnt 6y ago
A few per cent loss here, a few per cent there, it adds up.
dctoedt 6y ago
You're pretty optimistic about the net effect.
- rayiner 6y ago
  I’m just going by the map in the article.