Not GP. In my opinion, the only reliable measure is excess death (if you believe death count, which I trust for most countries, but not all countries), because

Not GP. In my opinion, the only reliable measure is excess death (if you believe death count, which I trust for most countries, but not all countries), because it is invariant to these (often political) classifications. See e.g.[0] (it is up-to-date for 11-sep, despite the link date saying April 21). In fact, these graphs would look the same even if you didn't have access to any testing/diagnostics/causes-of-death. It is easily visible which countries have gone back to baseline, which countries haven't, and which didn't even have a "first wave", which likely means that they are in great danger of one happening. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...