"The original estimates" Look at this range of epidemiologists' 2020 death toll estimates (second chart below), gathered by 538 on April 2nd. Comparing to the

"The original estimates" Look at this range of epidemiologists' 2020 death toll estimates (second chart below), gathered by 538 on April 2nd. Comparing to the current death total of 200k in the US, It's actually pretty decent, the majority of experts' ranges include 250k, which may be around where we end up in 2.5 months' time. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-case-and-worst-case-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-case-and-worst-cas... I would take any cruise-ship analysis from early on with a grain of salt. It's very hard to test a pandemic extremely early on, there are less valid and reliable testing instruments.