3 ms·
Technically that was "last flu season", not the upcoming flu season, and it was relatively mild. It is hard to predict if 2020-2021 will be similar, or 2017 lev
by Klinky 6y ago
Technically that was "last flu season", not the upcoming flu season, and it was relatively mild. It is hard to predict if 2020-2021 will be similar, or 2017 levels, or 2009 levels. At minimum it will add more strain to medical services.
- Gwypaas 6y agoIt shows that "okay" measures against COVID are strong enough to push the R_eff value for those viruses well below 1, unless something extraordinary happens. I.e. no extra strain for medical services. As said, this hinges on social distancing and hygiene measures being kept enforced. If you open a country fully again and get two simultaneous peaks then you are in for a bad time.
- Klinky 6y agoI think we're on the same page here. My catastrophic scenario involved no mitigation steps and removal of lockdown. The goal was to dissuade people from thinking since things are "fine/better" right now, lockdown/mitigation is not needed anymore. We still need to get through this winter, and on to a vaccine.