4 ms·
> the estimate death toll is reduced to 1/15th (6.6%) of the original estimates A million people are dead of this virus already. Which "original estimates" a
by newacct583 6y ago
> the estimate death toll is reduced to 1/15th (6.6%) of the original estimates
A million people are dead of this virus already. Which "original estimates" are you citing that predicted 15M people dead? Those line up with the absolute worst case scenarios, not actual predictions.
- zaroth 6y agoWell,... for example, the National Institute for Health Research University College London predicted ~580k excess 1-year mortality in a "do nothing" scenario in their "high" relative-risk (RR) assessment. That's ~0.9% of the population in 1 year, or 70 million people if extrapolated worldwide. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30854-0/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
- zaroth 6y agoOh, and just for fun, this is MSNBC yesterday; “ Math on Trump Covid strategy has millions dying before it works” “2.97% fatality rate * 215,000,000 = 6,385,500 dead” https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/math-on-trump-covid-strategy-has-millions-dying-before-it-works-91958341539 https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/math-on-trump-covi...