3 ms·

Scientists use big data to sway elections, predict riots. Welcome to the 1960s

24 points by ohjeez 6y ago

merricksb 6y ago
Different article about the same book discussed here 3 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24471641 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24471641
terravion 6y ago
Wow, how did this get published in Nature? Anthony Lewandowski is not an outlier in Silicon Valley, supported by a citation of the author's own (non-peer reviewed) article... I mean given all the ink spilled over him, whatever you think, he's definitely an outlier.
specialist 6y ago
Love Jill Lepore. There was a state change. When these systems changed from primarily identifying the demographics to driving the demographics. Sometime between 1960s and 2010s. My hunch is the social mediums accelerated the autonomous sorting feedback loop. Most likely related to algorithmic recommenders and the dopamine reward system. Like what happened from the transition from blogging to tweeting. Searching, foraging, ranking were outside and on top of the content system. The interest graph was inferred. Then the content became a feature of the interest graph. Ezra Klein's Why We Are Polarized thesis talks about how these systems first became expressions of our identity changing to activating our identities. I keep thinking about something Danny Hillis (may have) said: Once they become complex enough, systems of communication become systems of computation. Very transhuman and Singularity themed, I know, bare with me. It does acknowledge a state change, when quantity becomes its own quality. What if these feedback loops became self reinforcing? Beyond our agency, understanding, or control? "Collective amnesia" Spot on. My first real world experience of this was validated by Andrew Gumbel "Steal This Vote". His phrasing was something like "America's recurring amnesia about electioneering and chicanery". I was a baby activist raging against the incredulity and disinterest of the establishment. Sure, I had read "1984", but this forgetfulness is not deliberate, it's not what Orwell described. Some people drive the process. Since forever, according to Riane Eisler in "The Chalice and The Blade". And some people benefit. But I now mostly think we do it to ourselves. It's intrinsically human. Not intentionally. I think forgetfulness is crucial to human ability to get along. Related to homophily and sociability and ultimately allows cooperation. Our intrinsic forgetfulness and gullibility, traits which allowed our species to thrive, have absolutely been exploited. It's weird how the very key to your success will eventually lead to your downfall. I've certainly forgotten uncomfortable and inconvenient things about myself. To my own detriment. Know that I'm not judging forgetfulness; I am just trying to understand. Of course, some people cannot forget, are not allowed to forget. And others still work tirelessly to keep us from forgetting. A never ending battle. Edit PS: I should probably comment on the main thrust of this article. I remember being flabbergasted by Isaac Asimov's notion of psychohistory. So outlandish. Imagine my surprise learning that the notion was central to entire enterprise. Asimov wasn't making something up. Rather, common to a lot of great sci-fi, he was just speculating how these new ideas might turn out. Jill Lepore daylights one facet of that original conceit here. It's just a great article. I have some books about the history of computing with respect to government. Per Lepore's tangent about amnesia, we'd all do well to understand the origins. Just like reading classic literature, to understand how we became who were are today.

24 points by ohjeez 6y ago

Different article about the same book discussed here 3 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24471641 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24471641

terravion 6y ago

Wow, how did this get published in Nature? Anthony Lewandowski is not an outlier in Silicon Valley, supported by a citation of the author's own (non-peer reviewed) article... I mean given all the ink spilled over him, whatever you think, he's definitely an outlier.

specialist 6y ago

Love Jill Lepore. There was a state change. When these systems changed from primarily identifying the demographics to driving the demographics. Sometime between 1960s and 2010s. My hunch is the social mediums accelerated the autonomous sorting feedback loop. Most likely related to algorithmic recommenders and the dopamine reward system. Like what happened from the transition from blogging to tweeting. Searching, foraging, ranking were outside and on top of the content system. The interest graph was inferred. Then the content became a feature of the interest graph. Ezra Klein's Why We Are Polarized thesis talks about how these systems first became expressions of our identity changing to activating our identities. I keep thinking about something Danny Hillis (may have) said: Once they become complex enough, systems of communication become systems of computation. Very transhuman and Singularity themed, I know, bare with me. It does acknowledge a state change, when quantity becomes its own quality. What if these feedback loops became self reinforcing? Beyond our agency, understanding, or control? "Collective amnesia" Spot on. My first real world experience of this was validated by Andrew Gumbel "Steal This Vote". His phrasing was something like "America's recurring amnesia about electioneering and chicanery". I was a baby activist raging against the incredulity and disinterest of the establishment. Sure, I had read "1984", but this forgetfulness is not deliberate, it's not what Orwell described. Some people drive the process. Since forever, according to Riane Eisler in "The Chalice and The Blade". And some people benefit. But I now mostly think we do it to ourselves. It's intrinsically human. Not intentionally. I think forgetfulness is crucial to human ability to get along. Related to homophily and sociability and ultimately allows cooperation. Our intrinsic forgetfulness and gullibility, traits which allowed our species to thrive, have absolutely been exploited. It's weird how the very key to your success will eventually lead to your downfall. I've certainly forgotten uncomfortable and inconvenient things about myself. To my own detriment. Know that I'm not judging forgetfulness; I am just trying to understand. Of course, some people cannot forget, are not allowed to forget. And others still work tirelessly to keep us from forgetting. A never ending battle. Edit PS: I should probably comment on the main thrust of this article. I remember being flabbergasted by Isaac Asimov's notion of psychohistory. So outlandish. Imagine my surprise learning that the notion was central to entire enterprise. Asimov wasn't making something up. Rather, common to a lot of great sci-fi, he was just speculating how these new ideas might turn out. Jill Lepore daylights one facet of that original conceit here. It's just a great article. I have some books about the history of computing with respect to government. Per Lepore's tangent about amnesia, we'd all do well to understand the origins. Just like reading classic literature, to understand how we became who were are today.