7 ms·

No. "Obesity" and "vitamin-d deficiency" can't explain what happened in Italy (a lot of sun), and also can't explain what happened in the Nordic countries (much

by acqq 6y ago

No. "Obesity" and "vitamin-d deficiency" can't explain what happened in Italy (a lot of sun), and also can't explain what happened in the Nordic countries (much less sun), including Germany and Sweden (the later having order of magnitude more deaths than the former, measured as the percentage of the population). Sweden is particularly bad, having the deaths per capita even worse than the U.S. the last time I've checked. What we see is that countries that were lucky enough to do strong enough prevention actions early enough had order of magnitude less deaths than those who didn't do them (and Sweden is in the latter camp, even if they did have more response than most admit -- they did close all universities, for example). The scale of deaths seen in New York would have never happened, had the use of masks been common early enough. Eidt: Regarding "vulnerable populations" Italy and Germany have similar number of "vulnerable" and it seems Sweden would be better than Germany then: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Population_pyramid_of_Italy_2016.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Population_pyramid_o... https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Population_pyramid_of_Germany_2016.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Population_pyramid_o... https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sweden_population_pyramid_(2018).jpg https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sweden_population_py...

eCa 6y ago
> Sweden is particularly bad, having the deaths per capita even worse than the U.S. the last time I've checked. No. USA: 608 per million. Sweden: 580. [1] But the current trajectory is also important. In Sweden, the last day with more than 0.6 deaths/million was July 21 (according to actual date of death, not the date when death was reported), while the US currently is about 2-3 deaths/million/day. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
samsa 6y ago
It is worth noting that living in a sunny country does not guarantee the larger population receiving adequate Vitamin D through sun exposure, as many such populations somewhat paradoxically avoid sun exposure, as there are legitimate health reasons for doing so (extreme heat, concerns about skin cancer, etc.).
- acqq 6y ago
  To support that you'd have to show that Italians have order of magnitudes higher deficiency than most of Nordic countries, and I don't think it is possible. Another country with equivalent sun exposure to Italy is Greece, again orders of magnitude less deaths (like Germany). They also had strong lockdowns and early enough. It's the measures. Analyzing what happened in Europe (and still happens) can't be explained with anything else. Compare it with fires. Small fires are easy to extinguish. Pretending "it will go away" will simply result in a big fires. Eventually there won't be anything to burn. With people, eventually everybody who can and "feels the heat" will try to protect themselves. A lot of older people in Sweden stay in their homes and take care not to be infected. Masks are common in the supermarkets, etc.
  - chucky 6y ago
    > Masks are common in the supermarkets, etc. Not sure where you got this information - masks are not commonly worn at all in Sweden. I see perhaps 1 mask per week, unless I go into the city center, then I might see 10 in a day. The Swedish public health authorities are not currently recommending general usage of face masks, citing mainly the lack of evidence of the effectiveness of general mask usage (wearing a mask can cause you to get lulled into a false sense of security, for example). See https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/om-sjukdomen-och-smittspridning/smittspridning/munskydd/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utb... (in Swedish, unfortunately)
  - username90 6y ago
    > To support that you'd have to show that Italians have order of magnitudes higher deficiency than most of Nordic countries, and I don't think it is possible. Sweden adds vitamin D to food items so I wouldn't be surprised if Sweden has less vitamin D deficiency than many southern countries. https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-to-expand-mandatory-vitamin-D-fortification https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-t...
    - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
I said the interplay of chronic disease, vitamin-d and vulnerable populations.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
jahaja 6y ago
People really see what they want to see. As a Swede this whole pandemic has been truly enlightening regarding peoples propensity for confirmation bias. It has been truly shocking how prevalent it is throughout entire societies and ideologies. Here in Sweden the right-wing folks want to lock everything down and the left-wing want to keep deferring it to the experts. In the rest of the world it seems to be the other way around.
- jtbayly 6y ago
  Another way of looking at it: the left-wing people everywhere want to defer to the experts. It's just that the experts in different places are saying different things.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- natrik 6y ago
  Can you provide some articles/material regarding right wingers wanting to lock things down in Sweden? I'm not familiar with Swedish politics and would be interested in reading more.
  - jahaja 6y ago
    Throughout the pandemic the (neo-)Liberal (right-wing by Swedish standards) newspaper Dagens Nyheter (Today's News, dn.se) have led a campaign criticising the Swedish lax approach. The news site is paywalled however. The leader of the Swedish Democrats, the most right-wing in the Swedish parliament, called for the state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnells, to take responsibility and resign immediately: https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/jimmie-akesson-tegnell-maste-avga-omedelbart/ https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/jimmie-akesson-tegnell-mast... Interesting enough it's also the same kind of fringe-right that are protesting in against restrictions in Germany that is calling our approach genocidal here: "Tegnell is a danger to society" https://projektsanning.com/2020/03/12/coronaviruset-statsepidemiolog-tegnell-ar-en-fara-for-samhallet/ https://projektsanning.com/2020/03/12/coronaviruset-statsepi... "Tegnell reported to the Police due to the mass death among elderly" https://www.friatider.se/tegnell-polisanmald-massdoden-bland-aldre https://www.friatider.se/tegnell-polisanmald-massdoden-bland...
ynfnehf 6y ago
Sweden has 5x deaths of Germany. Not quite an order of magnitude. And as someone else pointed out, the US has more deaths per capita than Sweden.
- acqq 6y ago
  > the US has more deaths per capita than Sweden Nothing to be proud about for either of them. Anyway, until e.g. month ago Sweden had the lead.
  - acqq 6y ago
    Just checked: it seems the last day the U.S. was better than Sweden in deaths per capita was 11. September, so just 8 days ago. And, when the trends continue, in a week the U.S. will be worse than the U.K. too. The only countries in Europe with more Covid-19 deaths per million then will be Belgium and Spain.
    - ynfnehf 6y ago
      If I recall correctly the US passed Sweden in excess mortality sometime in June/July. So they have probably passed some of the other European countries already. I couldn't find a good up to date source, but Belgium seems to have lower excess than US. Comparing death statistics is not trivial. Anyways, I don't think comparing the US to most countries in Europe really makes sense, considering the size and population differences.
      - acqq 6y ago
        > If I recall correctly the US passed Sweden in excess mortality sometime in June/July. According to ourworldindata, in reported Covid-19 deaths per million, on Sept 12: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2020-02-28..latest&country=GRC~ESP~SWE~USA~ITA~DEU~BEL~FIN~GBR&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS... > I don't think comparing the US to most countries in Europe really makes sense You are missing "per million" which is what I used. Comparing absolute numbers has of course no sense. When comparing relative numbers ("per million"), the big country spread across big area, like U.S. is, would be expected have huge advantages compared to any country in Europe (due to slower spread over the distances, much less dependency on public transportation). Moreover, the countries worst hit in Europe were only those where the spread happened first -- others took note and introduced measures early enough. Not the U.S. which totally botched its response even ignoring the initial hit in NY. Compare the slopes of all other European countries for months, v.s. what's going on in the U.S. The response in the U.S. is criminally bad, and continues to be so -- and not looking at the "cases" but simply and tragically, deaths. Those that are reported. I admit that comparing some other estimates of "excess deaths" could give some other numbers, but I don't see any way in which U.S. can look good, especially as it was Italy being hit the first and everybody else having the time to react somehow. Also see daily average of deaths per million, to get the idea how bad it is still: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?time=2020-02-28..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-mi...

by acqq 6y ago

eCa 6y ago

> Sweden is particularly bad, having the deaths per capita even worse than the U.S. the last time I've checked. No. USA: 608 per million. Sweden: 580. [1] But the current trajectory is also important. In Sweden, the last day with more than 0.6 deaths/million was July 21 (according to actual date of death, not the date when death was reported), while the US currently is about 2-3 deaths/million/day. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

samsa 6y ago

It is worth noting that living in a sunny country does not guarantee the larger population receiving adequate Vitamin D through sun exposure, as many such populations somewhat paradoxically avoid sun exposure, as there are legitimate health reasons for doing so (extreme heat, concerns about skin cancer, etc.).

acqq 6y ago
To support that you'd have to show that Italians have order of magnitudes higher deficiency than most of Nordic countries, and I don't think it is possible. Another country with equivalent sun exposure to Italy is Greece, again orders of magnitude less deaths (like Germany). They also had strong lockdowns and early enough. It's the measures. Analyzing what happened in Europe (and still happens) can't be explained with anything else. Compare it with fires. Small fires are easy to extinguish. Pretending "it will go away" will simply result in a big fires. Eventually there won't be anything to burn. With people, eventually everybody who can and "feels the heat" will try to protect themselves. A lot of older people in Sweden stay in their homes and take care not to be infected. Masks are common in the supermarkets, etc.
- chucky 6y ago
  > Masks are common in the supermarkets, etc. Not sure where you got this information - masks are not commonly worn at all in Sweden. I see perhaps 1 mask per week, unless I go into the city center, then I might see 10 in a day. The Swedish public health authorities are not currently recommending general usage of face masks, citing mainly the lack of evidence of the effectiveness of general mask usage (wearing a mask can cause you to get lulled into a false sense of security, for example). See https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/om-sjukdomen-och-smittspridning/smittspridning/munskydd/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utb... (in Swedish, unfortunately)
- username90 6y ago
  > To support that you'd have to show that Italians have order of magnitudes higher deficiency than most of Nordic countries, and I don't think it is possible. Sweden adds vitamin D to food items so I wouldn't be surprised if Sweden has less vitamin D deficiency than many southern countries. https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-to-expand-mandatory-vitamin-D-fortification https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-t...
  - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago

I said the interplay of chronic disease, vitamin-d and vulnerable populations.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

jahaja 6y ago

People really see what they want to see. As a Swede this whole pandemic has been truly enlightening regarding peoples propensity for confirmation bias. It has been truly shocking how prevalent it is throughout entire societies and ideologies. Here in Sweden the right-wing folks want to lock everything down and the left-wing want to keep deferring it to the experts. In the rest of the world it seems to be the other way around.

jtbayly 6y ago
Another way of looking at it: the left-wing people everywhere want to defer to the experts. It's just that the experts in different places are saying different things.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
natrik 6y ago
Can you provide some articles/material regarding right wingers wanting to lock things down in Sweden? I'm not familiar with Swedish politics and would be interested in reading more.
- jahaja 6y ago
  Throughout the pandemic the (neo-)Liberal (right-wing by Swedish standards) newspaper Dagens Nyheter (Today's News, dn.se) have led a campaign criticising the Swedish lax approach. The news site is paywalled however. The leader of the Swedish Democrats, the most right-wing in the Swedish parliament, called for the state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnells, to take responsibility and resign immediately: https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/jimmie-akesson-tegnell-maste-avga-omedelbart/ https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/jimmie-akesson-tegnell-mast... Interesting enough it's also the same kind of fringe-right that are protesting in against restrictions in Germany that is calling our approach genocidal here: "Tegnell is a danger to society" https://projektsanning.com/2020/03/12/coronaviruset-statsepidemiolog-tegnell-ar-en-fara-for-samhallet/ https://projektsanning.com/2020/03/12/coronaviruset-statsepi... "Tegnell reported to the Police due to the mass death among elderly" https://www.friatider.se/tegnell-polisanmald-massdoden-bland-aldre https://www.friatider.se/tegnell-polisanmald-massdoden-bland...

ynfnehf 6y ago

Sweden has 5x deaths of Germany. Not quite an order of magnitude. And as someone else pointed out, the US has more deaths per capita than Sweden.

acqq 6y ago
> the US has more deaths per capita than Sweden Nothing to be proud about for either of them. Anyway, until e.g. month ago Sweden had the lead.
- acqq 6y ago
  Just checked: it seems the last day the U.S. was better than Sweden in deaths per capita was 11. September, so just 8 days ago. And, when the trends continue, in a week the U.S. will be worse than the U.K. too. The only countries in Europe with more Covid-19 deaths per million then will be Belgium and Spain.
  - ynfnehf 6y ago
    If I recall correctly the US passed Sweden in excess mortality sometime in June/July. So they have probably passed some of the other European countries already. I couldn't find a good up to date source, but Belgium seems to have lower excess than US. Comparing death statistics is not trivial. Anyways, I don't think comparing the US to most countries in Europe really makes sense, considering the size and population differences.
    - acqq 6y ago
      > If I recall correctly the US passed Sweden in excess mortality sometime in June/July. According to ourworldindata, in reported Covid-19 deaths per million, on Sept 12: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2020-02-28..latest&country=GRC~ESP~SWE~USA~ITA~DEU~BEL~FIN~GBR&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS... > I don't think comparing the US to most countries in Europe really makes sense You are missing "per million" which is what I used. Comparing absolute numbers has of course no sense. When comparing relative numbers ("per million"), the big country spread across big area, like U.S. is, would be expected have huge advantages compared to any country in Europe (due to slower spread over the distances, much less dependency on public transportation). Moreover, the countries worst hit in Europe were only those where the spread happened first -- others took note and introduced measures early enough. Not the U.S. which totally botched its response even ignoring the initial hit in NY. Compare the slopes of all other European countries for months, v.s. what's going on in the U.S. The response in the U.S. is criminally bad, and continues to be so -- and not looking at the "cases" but simply and tragically, deaths. Those that are reported. I admit that comparing some other estimates of "excess deaths" could give some other numbers, but I don't see any way in which U.S. can look good, especially as it was Italy being hit the first and everybody else having the time to react somehow. Also see daily average of deaths per million, to get the idea how bad it is still: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?time=2020-02-28..latest https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-mi...