5 ms·

The mental gymnastics some commenters use to turn this into bad news... Occam must be spinning in his grave.

by dazilcher 6y ago

MattGaiser 6y ago
When individual incomes are up nowhere near as much, there is obviously more going on than just good economic news.
- bhupy 6y ago
  Real median individual income is the highest it's ever been: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
  - shakethemonkey 6y ago
    According to BEA, "State personal income increased 4.4 percent in 2019, after increasing 5.6 percent in 2018". This is not median data, so the median would likely have increased even less. [1] https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/state-annual-personal-income-2019-preliminary-and-state-quarterly-personal-income-4th https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/state-annual-personal-income-2...
    - bhupy 6y ago
      The linked FRED data is median data.
      - shakethemonkey 6y ago
        Why is it at such variance with the BEA data? That is my question.
        bhupy 6y ago
        Oh you’re not talking about the FRED data, which examines real median personal income over time (which has been constantly increasing). You’re talking about why the BEA data doesn’t line up with the US Census Bureau data for 2019. That’s probably because the BEA data is average growth while the US Census data shows the median income growth. For year 2019, we noticed that wage growth was largely driven by the lower quintiles: https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/03/05/february-jobs-report-preview/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/03/05/february-jobs-report-pr... This can largely explain the discrepancy. In other words, the assertion that “median would have increased even less” actually turned out to not be true, empirically.
        shakethemonkey 6y ago
        Ah, so a one-off anomaly. Over time it seems that median income is considerably underperforming. [1][2] [1] https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA516-1.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA516-1.html [2] https://www.fastcompany.com/90550015/we-were-shocked-rand-study-uncovers-massive-income-shift-to-the-top-1 https://www.fastcompany.com/90550015/we-were-shocked-rand-st...
        bhupy 6y ago
        Sure, we have seen "anomalous" years for median earners from time to time, but it's important to remember that over time real median income has still been increasing as a function of the business cycle — I.e. the first derivative has always been positive during bull economies (see: FRED historic data). Sometimes the second derivative is also positive, which isn't uncommon. In 2019, the second derivative was not only positive, it was very positive.
burlesona 6y ago
I think there’s a non-trivial number of Americans who have adopted a belief system that we’re a crap country and don’t want to hear anything that contradicts that narrative. It seems like a lot of folks also shift into and out of that category when their preferred red or blue team is in the White House.
ntsplnkv2 6y ago
Generally everyone in the US views the US negatively right now. maybe some mumbo jumbo stat that has nothing to do with the real world says things are better. Or maybe they frankly are not better.
- bhupy 6y ago
  These numbers are pre-COVID. Obviously things are bad now, there’s a global pandemic. Pre-COVID, personal satisfaction in the US was at all time highs, so these numbers shouldn’t be all that surprising to anyone outside the HN bubble...
  - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
    Ahh yes, "personal satisfaction." I'd love to see the survey that made that statistic marketable.
    - bhupy 6y ago
      It’s Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/284285/new-high-americans-satisfied-personal-life.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/284285/new-high-americans-satis... Anyway, it sounds like you’ve really made up your mind here, and no amount of data appears to be sufficient to reverse the dogma.
      - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
        "The latest figure bests the previous high of 88% recorded in 2003." lol wow. 2% of difference. Am I really supposed to believe this nonsense you spew? What a meaningless statistic, all to support YOUR dogma. See what I mean? You seem easily convinced, so stick around and I'll have your whole world upside down.
        bhupy 6y ago
        The difference between 88 and 90 isn’t important here. This is directly in response to your claim that “Generally everyone in the US views the US negatively right now.” Perhaps that’s true in late 2020 amidst a once-in-generation pandemic and the inevitable economic fallout that’s gripped the entire world. But these pre-COVID US Census numbers mostly line up with the overwhelming pre-COVID sentiment. I don’t know why that’s so surprising/off-putting to you.
DeonPenny 6y ago
Yeh the america is bad crowd is out here in full effect trying to say other places have it better. When the reality is life is hard and its actually much hard everywhere else. There is no easy mode to this.

The mental gymnastics some commenters use to turn this into bad news... Occam must be spinning in his grave.

MattGaiser 6y ago

When individual incomes are up nowhere near as much, there is obviously more going on than just good economic news.

bhupy 6y ago
Real median individual income is the highest it's ever been: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
- shakethemonkey 6y ago
  According to BEA, "State personal income increased 4.4 percent in 2019, after increasing 5.6 percent in 2018". This is not median data, so the median would likely have increased even less. [1] https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/state-annual-personal-income-2019-preliminary-and-state-quarterly-personal-income-4th https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/state-annual-personal-income-2...
  - bhupy 6y ago
    The linked FRED data is median data.
    - shakethemonkey 6y ago
      Why is it at such variance with the BEA data? That is my question.
      - bhupy 6y ago
        Oh you’re not talking about the FRED data, which examines real median personal income over time (which has been constantly increasing). You’re talking about why the BEA data doesn’t line up with the US Census Bureau data for 2019. That’s probably because the BEA data is average growth while the US Census data shows the median income growth. For year 2019, we noticed that wage growth was largely driven by the lower quintiles: https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/03/05/february-jobs-report-preview/ https://www.hiringlab.org/2019/03/05/february-jobs-report-pr... This can largely explain the discrepancy. In other words, the assertion that “median would have increased even less” actually turned out to not be true, empirically.
        shakethemonkey 6y ago
        Ah, so a one-off anomaly. Over time it seems that median income is considerably underperforming. [1][2] [1] https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA516-1.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA516-1.html [2] https://www.fastcompany.com/90550015/we-were-shocked-rand-study-uncovers-massive-income-shift-to-the-top-1 https://www.fastcompany.com/90550015/we-were-shocked-rand-st...
        bhupy 6y ago
        Sure, we have seen "anomalous" years for median earners from time to time, but it's important to remember that over time real median income has still been increasing as a function of the business cycle — I.e. the first derivative has always been positive during bull economies (see: FRED historic data). Sometimes the second derivative is also positive, which isn't uncommon. In 2019, the second derivative was not only positive, it was very positive.

burlesona 6y ago

I think there’s a non-trivial number of Americans who have adopted a belief system that we’re a crap country and don’t want to hear anything that contradicts that narrative. It seems like a lot of folks also shift into and out of that category when their preferred red or blue team is in the White House.

ntsplnkv2 6y ago

Generally everyone in the US views the US negatively right now. maybe some mumbo jumbo stat that has nothing to do with the real world says things are better. Or maybe they frankly are not better.

bhupy 6y ago
These numbers are pre-COVID. Obviously things are bad now, there’s a global pandemic. Pre-COVID, personal satisfaction in the US was at all time highs, so these numbers shouldn’t be all that surprising to anyone outside the HN bubble...
- ntsplnkv2 6y ago
  Ahh yes, "personal satisfaction." I'd love to see the survey that made that statistic marketable.
  - bhupy 6y ago
    It’s Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/284285/new-high-americans-satisfied-personal-life.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/284285/new-high-americans-satis... Anyway, it sounds like you’ve really made up your mind here, and no amount of data appears to be sufficient to reverse the dogma.
    - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
      "The latest figure bests the previous high of 88% recorded in 2003." lol wow. 2% of difference. Am I really supposed to believe this nonsense you spew? What a meaningless statistic, all to support YOUR dogma. See what I mean? You seem easily convinced, so stick around and I'll have your whole world upside down.
      - bhupy 6y ago
        The difference between 88 and 90 isn’t important here. This is directly in response to your claim that “Generally everyone in the US views the US negatively right now.” Perhaps that’s true in late 2020 amidst a once-in-generation pandemic and the inevitable economic fallout that’s gripped the entire world. But these pre-COVID US Census numbers mostly line up with the overwhelming pre-COVID sentiment. I don’t know why that’s so surprising/off-putting to you.

DeonPenny 6y ago

Yeh the america is bad crowd is out here in full effect trying to say other places have it better. When the reality is life is hard and its actually much hard everywhere else. There is no easy mode to this.