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Wouldn’t the large number of Americans in their 20s living in their parents homes have affected this? I suspect a lot of those who have moved back into their p

Wouldn’t the large number of Americans in their 20s living in their parents homes have affected this? I suspect a lot of those who have moved back into their parents’ homes were likely earning below the median household income. Remove them as a household, and suddenly the median family is one higher on the income scale.

dv_dt 6y ago
Hey look, 2019 household data validating the household size growth part of your conjecture: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/01/the-number-of-people-in-the-average-u-s-household-is-going-up-for-the-first-time-in-over-160-years/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/01/the-number-...
- jeffbee 6y ago
  Hrmm, not consistent with Census Bureau current population survey which shows household size hitting a record low in 2019. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/families/time-series/households/hh4.xls https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/familie...
  - cle 6y ago
    What conclusion should I draw from these seemingly inconsistent statistics?
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      I don't know! The article that supposedly upholds the theory of slow household growth is discussing a forecast of the 2020 decennial census and says nothing about 2019. The income data we are discussing is for 2019 only. These two things do not really stand in opposition to each other.
    - sumedh 6y ago
      These statistics depend on how the questions was framed to get the data.
    - chaorace 6y ago
      I would say it is wiser to draw a conclusion using the census household size data, since the headline statistic of household income is also sourced from the census. Why compare apples and oranges when you have apples and apples?
      - SubiculumCode 6y ago
        Well the inferences would only be as good as the sampling then. I know for me, the census was the last thing that was on my mind, and it was only completed it because my spouse was did it. There has been many issues with Census data collection (take a google news search).
        jeffbee 6y ago
        This data is from the Current Population Survey where they select households and then either visit or call on the phone. It's not a thing where they just mail out the survey. The CPS also repeatedly selects the same household in consecutive surveys, which gives them continuity that other surveys lack.
    - throwaway6000 6y ago
      wuhooo Trump for president!
      - paul7986 6y ago
        no politics here especially anything positive for that looney tune who per the census has increased wages for citizens by 4k in a year.
  - dv_dt 6y ago
    Given the context the the article provides, and that the raw table does not, I am inclined to believe the pew research article, and would suggest the linked table needs to also have some methodology and definition of what it thinks it is and is not capturing. The pew article also looks at statistics like "In 2019, 20% of households are shared households, up from 17% in 2007." The weakness in the pew article is it's forecasting growth in household size from one year of its model, obviously we need to wait more time to see if it's model is correct.
    - brianchu 6y ago
      I have the opposite assumption: the raw data is usually more reliable than an editorial. And I confirmed it: the raw table is more reliable since it is the same survey across different years. The article is inconsistently comparing numbers from 2 different surveys. The 2018 figure (2.63) is from the "American Community Survey" and the 2010 figure (2.58) is from "Census SF1 data". But the 2010 "American Community Survey" says the average houshold size is 2.63 (https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=b25010&tid=ACSDT1Y2010.B25010&hidePreview=false https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=b25010&tid=ACSDT1Y201...), so for this survey the trend is flat.
      - dv_dt 6y ago
        The pew article is more comprehensive than those two surveys. They also point out supporting data from https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-266.html https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-26... From which they conclude "In 2019, 20% of households are shared households, up from 17% in 2007." https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/05/a-record-64-million-americans-live-in-multigenerational-households/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/05/a-record-64... from which they mention "By 2016, 20% of Americans lived in a multigenerational household, up from 12% in 1980" One survey is one survey, multiple data points from a set of different perspectives is more comprehensive an analysis and less susceptible to single measurement methodology errors. The main thing I take from this is that movement of a household income number is fairy meaningless unless you also know what household size number is measured or calculated with the income number.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> Wouldn’t the large number of Americans in their 20s living in their parents homes have affected this? Yeah, in many ways a more interesting figure would be median adult income, but household (which has real comparability problems across time) is the popular number.
- refurb 6y ago
  Individual worker median income change is in the report too, split out by sex (people 15+ years old with income). Men - +2.5% Women - +7.8%
  - webmaven 6y ago
    I can't tell if the various % changes are for inflation-adjusted constant dollars or not...
  - dragonwriter 6y ago
    > Individual worker median income change is in the report too, And is still not individual adult median income, and like median household income is a measure whose rise can indicate bad outcomes: where with median household income the factor that causes this is that it increases, cet. par., with more adults/household, with median individual workers it goes up if people who were previously working but at the low end of the distribution just lose their jobs.
    - refurb 6y ago
      You're saying an increase in individual median income is bad?
      - dragonwriter 6y ago
        No, I'm saying an individual worker median income is not the same as individual median income, and it is quite possible for the former to go up when the latter goes down. As a simple case, consider a situation with 100% enployment and any non-uniform income distribution you want as the “before”, and the situation where everyone below the median in the “before” loses their job and has 0 income as the “after”, while everyone else remains employed with the same income as before. What happened to individual worker median income? What happened to individual median income?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
rubyn00bie 6y ago
I came here to say this is mostly likely the cause. We're looking at is households, and the easiest way to explain this jump is actually that the economy is more fucked than ever and more working age people are living together. If we consider the type articles you're referencing, that have been noting the migration of young, educated, working-age adults back to their parents homes in the USA-- we should very well expect to see a large spike in the reported median household income. The same growth would be true if more people were living in situations with roommates where ideally they wouldn't. Here's the definition of a household from the linked article: > A family household is a household maintained by a householder who is related to at least one other person in the house-hold by birth, marriage, or adoption and includes any unrelated individuals who may be residing there. A nonfamily household is a householder living alone (a one-person household) or sharing the home exclusively with nonrelatives. Addendum: I'd like to note, that even if household size itself appears to be low; that's likely due to reproduction rates being on the decline as more people, on average, are having smaller families each year...
- jakemal 6y ago
  Based on the definition of household, it sounds like roommates wouldn't be included in the median income calculation.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
bhupy 6y ago
These numbers are from 2019, pre-COVID.
- MichaelApproved 6y ago
  There were a large number of people in their 20's living with their parents pre-COVID.
  - shakethemonkey 6y ago
    But does it make sense that there would be a huge jump in that for 2019 but not 2018? This data smells.
    - altcognito 6y ago
      Definitely, and the census even calls it out: https://www.epi.org/blog/household-income-gains-welcome-in-2019-census-data-but-may-not-be-as-strong-as-they-first-appear/ https://www.epi.org/blog/household-income-gains-welcome-in-2...
  - DeonPenny 6y ago
    Not really, or not many more than normal
altcognito 6y ago
Also, "2019" data is from 2020, and the entire census process was awkward as you might imagine this year: https://www.epi.org/blog/household-income-gains-welcome-in-2019-census-data-but-may-not-be-as-strong-as-they-first-appear/ https://www.epi.org/blog/household-income-gains-welcome-in-2... > the data was collected between February and April of this year,
- mc32 6y ago
  >"According to the Census Bureau’s latest report, median household incomes rose 6.8% between 2018 and 2019" Collected here means tabulated. The data reflect changes in hhold income from 2018 to 2019.
  - altcognito 6y ago
    FTA: > Overall, non-response increased significantly and was more strongly associated with income than in previous years, with non-response decreasing with income, meaning that income data could be skewed higher than it actually was. I don't see how calculations would trend in a particular direction if they weren't literally collected in this calendar year. It's still confusing as hell. Also, is this addendum, by the census themselves: > When correcting for non-response bias in 2019, the Census found that real median income was $66,790, 2.8% lower than reported in the official release.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    This is not correct. The 2019 income data is collected in a survey conducted in 2020.
sjg007 6y ago
No.. household is a tax and income thing. Parents cannot claim 18+ year olds as dependents unless they are actually dependent (e.g. disabled/guardian etc...)
- 1shooner 6y ago
  Not according to their glossary: " Household A household consists of all the persons who occupy a house, an apartment, or other group of rooms, or a room, which constitutes a housing unit. A group of rooms or a single room is regarded as a housing unit when it is occupied as separate living quarters; that is, when the occupants do not live with any other person in the structure, and when there is direct access from the outside or through a common hall. The count of households excludes persons living in group quarters, such as military barracks and institutions. Inmates of institutions (mentalhospitals, rest homes, correctional institutions, etc.) are not included in the survey. " "
  - sjg007 6y ago
    Interesting... ok maybe so then.
  - Fezzik 6y ago
    The number if people in your household does not alter your tax liability, only the number of dependents in that group. Those who qualify as dependents are: “your biological child, stepchild, foster child, sibling, step-sibling, or a descendant of any of these individually... but the child can’t turn 19 at any time during the tax year (age 24 if a full-time student).” From: https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/family/what-are-dependents/L951ZvVUb https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/family/what-are-depende...
    - tgb 6y ago
      But the survey being discussed doesn't seem to be using tax definitions.
      - Fezzik 6y ago
pkaye 6y ago
> The 2019 real median earnings of men ($57,456) and women ($47,299) who worked full-time, year-round increased by 2.1 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively (Figure 4 and Table A-6).
- vitus 6y ago
  Hm, I wonder how you reconcile this with the other summary finding that > the real median earnings of full-time, year-round workers increased 0.8 percent between 2018 and 2019 Seems like this is the wealth gap, coupled with an increase of the proportion of females working full-time in the workforce. > The number of females who were full-time, year-round workers increased by about 1.2 million between 2018 and 2019, while the change for their male counterparts was not statistically significant. Reminds me of Simpson's paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
mbesto 6y ago
from the report: This report uses the characteristics of the householder to describe the household. The householder is the person (or one of the people) in whose name the home is owned or rented and the person to whom the relationship of other household members is recorded. If a married couple owns the home jointly, either spouse may be listed as the householder. Since only one person in each household is designated as the householder, the number of householders is equal to the number of households. The count of households in this report excludes group quarters. Further definitions are held here: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsmar20.pdf https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsmar... (dont have time to parse through, but I suspect that there is only one head of household, and thus it means a child who is 18+ living with their parents, they are basically aren't even considered in the calculation)

dv_dt 6y ago

Hey look, 2019 household data validating the household size growth part of your conjecture: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/01/the-number-of-people-in-the-average-u-s-household-is-going-up-for-the-first-time-in-over-160-years/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/10/01/the-number-...

jeffbee 6y ago
Hrmm, not consistent with Census Bureau current population survey which shows household size hitting a record low in 2019. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/families/time-series/households/hh4.xls https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/familie...
- cle 6y ago
  What conclusion should I draw from these seemingly inconsistent statistics?
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    I don't know! The article that supposedly upholds the theory of slow household growth is discussing a forecast of the 2020 decennial census and says nothing about 2019. The income data we are discussing is for 2019 only. These two things do not really stand in opposition to each other.
  - sumedh 6y ago
    These statistics depend on how the questions was framed to get the data.
  - chaorace 6y ago
    I would say it is wiser to draw a conclusion using the census household size data, since the headline statistic of household income is also sourced from the census. Why compare apples and oranges when you have apples and apples?
    - SubiculumCode 6y ago
      Well the inferences would only be as good as the sampling then. I know for me, the census was the last thing that was on my mind, and it was only completed it because my spouse was did it. There has been many issues with Census data collection (take a google news search).
      - jeffbee 6y ago
        This data is from the Current Population Survey where they select households and then either visit or call on the phone. It's not a thing where they just mail out the survey. The CPS also repeatedly selects the same household in consecutive surveys, which gives them continuity that other surveys lack.
  - throwaway6000 6y ago
    wuhooo Trump for president!
    - paul7986 6y ago
      no politics here especially anything positive for that looney tune who per the census has increased wages for citizens by 4k in a year.
- dv_dt 6y ago
  Given the context the the article provides, and that the raw table does not, I am inclined to believe the pew research article, and would suggest the linked table needs to also have some methodology and definition of what it thinks it is and is not capturing. The pew article also looks at statistics like "In 2019, 20% of households are shared households, up from 17% in 2007." The weakness in the pew article is it's forecasting growth in household size from one year of its model, obviously we need to wait more time to see if it's model is correct.
  - brianchu 6y ago
    I have the opposite assumption: the raw data is usually more reliable than an editorial. And I confirmed it: the raw table is more reliable since it is the same survey across different years. The article is inconsistently comparing numbers from 2 different surveys. The 2018 figure (2.63) is from the "American Community Survey" and the 2010 figure (2.58) is from "Census SF1 data". But the 2010 "American Community Survey" says the average houshold size is 2.63 (https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=b25010&tid=ACSDT1Y2010.B25010&hidePreview=false https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=b25010&tid=ACSDT1Y201...), so for this survey the trend is flat.
    - dv_dt 6y ago
      The pew article is more comprehensive than those two surveys. They also point out supporting data from https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-266.html https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-26... From which they conclude "In 2019, 20% of households are shared households, up from 17% in 2007." https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/05/a-record-64-million-americans-live-in-multigenerational-households/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/05/a-record-64... from which they mention "By 2016, 20% of Americans lived in a multigenerational household, up from 12% in 1980" One survey is one survey, multiple data points from a set of different perspectives is more comprehensive an analysis and less susceptible to single measurement methodology errors. The main thing I take from this is that movement of a household income number is fairy meaningless unless you also know what household size number is measured or calculated with the income number.

dragonwriter 6y ago

> Wouldn’t the large number of Americans in their 20s living in their parents homes have affected this? Yeah, in many ways a more interesting figure would be median adult income, but household (which has real comparability problems across time) is the popular number.

refurb 6y ago
Individual worker median income change is in the report too, split out by sex (people 15+ years old with income). Men - +2.5% Women - +7.8%
- webmaven 6y ago
  I can't tell if the various % changes are for inflation-adjusted constant dollars or not...
- dragonwriter 6y ago
  > Individual worker median income change is in the report too, And is still not individual adult median income, and like median household income is a measure whose rise can indicate bad outcomes: where with median household income the factor that causes this is that it increases, cet. par., with more adults/household, with median individual workers it goes up if people who were previously working but at the low end of the distribution just lose their jobs.
  - refurb 6y ago
    You're saying an increase in individual median income is bad?
    - dragonwriter 6y ago
      No, I'm saying an individual worker median income is not the same as individual median income, and it is quite possible for the former to go up when the latter goes down. As a simple case, consider a situation with 100% enployment and any non-uniform income distribution you want as the “before”, and the situation where everyone below the median in the “before” loses their job and has 0 income as the “after”, while everyone else remains employed with the same income as before. What happened to individual worker median income? What happened to individual median income?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

rubyn00bie 6y ago

I came here to say this is mostly likely the cause. We're looking at is households, and the easiest way to explain this jump is actually that the economy is more fucked than ever and more working age people are living together. If we consider the type articles you're referencing, that have been noting the migration of young, educated, working-age adults back to their parents homes in the USA-- we should very well expect to see a large spike in the reported median household income. The same growth would be true if more people were living in situations with roommates where ideally they wouldn't. Here's the definition of a household from the linked article: > A family household is a household maintained by a householder who is related to at least one other person in the house-hold by birth, marriage, or adoption and includes any unrelated individuals who may be residing there. A nonfamily household is a householder living alone (a one-person household) or sharing the home exclusively with nonrelatives. Addendum: I'd like to note, that even if household size itself appears to be low; that's likely due to reproduction rates being on the decline as more people, on average, are having smaller families each year...

jakemal 6y ago
Based on the definition of household, it sounds like roommates wouldn't be included in the median income calculation.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

bhupy 6y ago

These numbers are from 2019, pre-COVID.

MichaelApproved 6y ago
There were a large number of people in their 20's living with their parents pre-COVID.
- shakethemonkey 6y ago
  But does it make sense that there would be a huge jump in that for 2019 but not 2018? This data smells.
  - altcognito 6y ago
    Definitely, and the census even calls it out: https://www.epi.org/blog/household-income-gains-welcome-in-2019-census-data-but-may-not-be-as-strong-as-they-first-appear/ https://www.epi.org/blog/household-income-gains-welcome-in-2...
- DeonPenny 6y ago
  Not really, or not many more than normal

altcognito 6y ago

Also, "2019" data is from 2020, and the entire census process was awkward as you might imagine this year: https://www.epi.org/blog/household-income-gains-welcome-in-2019-census-data-but-may-not-be-as-strong-as-they-first-appear/ https://www.epi.org/blog/household-income-gains-welcome-in-2... > the data was collected between February and April of this year,

mc32 6y ago
>"According to the Census Bureau’s latest report, median household incomes rose 6.8% between 2018 and 2019" Collected here means tabulated. The data reflect changes in hhold income from 2018 to 2019.
- altcognito 6y ago
  FTA: > Overall, non-response increased significantly and was more strongly associated with income than in previous years, with non-response decreasing with income, meaning that income data could be skewed higher than it actually was. I don't see how calculations would trend in a particular direction if they weren't literally collected in this calendar year. It's still confusing as hell. Also, is this addendum, by the census themselves: > When correcting for non-response bias in 2019, the Census found that real median income was $66,790, 2.8% lower than reported in the official release.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  This is not correct. The 2019 income data is collected in a survey conducted in 2020.

sjg007 6y ago

No.. household is a tax and income thing. Parents cannot claim 18+ year olds as dependents unless they are actually dependent (e.g. disabled/guardian etc...)

1shooner 6y ago
Not according to their glossary: " Household A household consists of all the persons who occupy a house, an apartment, or other group of rooms, or a room, which constitutes a housing unit. A group of rooms or a single room is regarded as a housing unit when it is occupied as separate living quarters; that is, when the occupants do not live with any other person in the structure, and when there is direct access from the outside or through a common hall. The count of households excludes persons living in group quarters, such as military barracks and institutions. Inmates of institutions (mentalhospitals, rest homes, correctional institutions, etc.) are not included in the survey. " "
- sjg007 6y ago
  Interesting... ok maybe so then.
- Fezzik 6y ago
  The number if people in your household does not alter your tax liability, only the number of dependents in that group. Those who qualify as dependents are: “your biological child, stepchild, foster child, sibling, step-sibling, or a descendant of any of these individually... but the child can’t turn 19 at any time during the tax year (age 24 if a full-time student).” From: https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/family/what-are-dependents/L951ZvVUb https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/family/what-are-depende...
  - tgb 6y ago
    But the survey being discussed doesn't seem to be using tax definitions.
    - Fezzik 6y ago

pkaye 6y ago

> The 2019 real median earnings of men ($57,456) and women ($47,299) who worked full-time, year-round increased by 2.1 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively (Figure 4 and Table A-6).

vitus 6y ago
Hm, I wonder how you reconcile this with the other summary finding that > the real median earnings of full-time, year-round workers increased 0.8 percent between 2018 and 2019 Seems like this is the wealth gap, coupled with an increase of the proportion of females working full-time in the workforce. > The number of females who were full-time, year-round workers increased by about 1.2 million between 2018 and 2019, while the change for their male counterparts was not statistically significant. Reminds me of Simpson's paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

mbesto 6y ago

from the report: This report uses the characteristics of the householder to describe the household. The householder is the person (or one of the people) in whose name the home is owned or rented and the person to whom the relationship of other household members is recorded. If a married couple owns the home jointly, either spouse may be listed as the householder. Since only one person in each household is designated as the householder, the number of householders is equal to the number of households. The count of households in this report excludes group quarters. Further definitions are held here: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsmar20.pdf https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsmar... (dont have time to parse through, but I suspect that there is only one head of household, and thus it means a child who is 18+ living with their parents, they are basically aren't even considered in the calculation)