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I live in China (well, 40% of my time), work for a social network, and I think you're wrong. Tumblr is sometimes blocked here, and I would bet that it's going t

I live in China (well, 40% of my time), work for a social network, and I think you're wrong. Tumblr is sometimes blocked here, and I would bet that it's going to have the same destiny as Facebook and Twitter here. The local Facebook clones work very well here, as does the local Twitter clone (that employs something like 500people). Meanwhile, the "originals" are blocked, and only people who can access internet through proxies or VPNs can access them. Therefore, I don't really think of any reason why Tumblr would have the last laugh.

bad_user 16y ago
So basically this is a business model that can only survive because of restrictions set by the current government. What will happen if China and the US reach some kind of agreement, and unlocking online US-services will be part of it? AND when cloning physical goods (like phones, cars, clothes, shoes, whatever) -- you can export them, since people are willing to pay lower prices for clones. How can you export a Tumblr or a Twitter clone, when both are freemium? How are these clones surviving? Do they generate revenue, when Tumblr, Twitter and Facebook can barely do it? Something is not right about this picture ;)
- elliottcarlson 16y ago
  From what I understand, micro-transactions for virtual goods is a lot more common in places like China, and if you can offer custom themes or other "value-added" services to these clones, you can monetize off of that - must like Farmville makes money on selling people special seeds. If China and the US reach some kind of agreement - and the services were unlocked - there would already be enough of a market share for the existing clones to maintain control over that market. Future clones would still have a chance in succeeding as well depending on the race to localisation of the products in the local language and demographics.
- cpeterso 16y ago
  The Chinese clones may have locked in a critical mass of users who are unlikely to switch to (English language) US sites like Facebook and Twitter.

bad_user 16y ago

So basically this is a business model that can only survive because of restrictions set by the current government. What will happen if China and the US reach some kind of agreement, and unlocking online US-services will be part of it? AND when cloning physical goods (like phones, cars, clothes, shoes, whatever) -- you can export them, since people are willing to pay lower prices for clones. How can you export a Tumblr or a Twitter clone, when both are freemium? How are these clones surviving? Do they generate revenue, when Tumblr, Twitter and Facebook can barely do it? Something is not right about this picture ;)

elliottcarlson 16y ago
From what I understand, micro-transactions for virtual goods is a lot more common in places like China, and if you can offer custom themes or other "value-added" services to these clones, you can monetize off of that - must like Farmville makes money on selling people special seeds. If China and the US reach some kind of agreement - and the services were unlocked - there would already be enough of a market share for the existing clones to maintain control over that market. Future clones would still have a chance in succeeding as well depending on the race to localisation of the products in the local language and demographics.
cpeterso 16y ago
The Chinese clones may have locked in a critical mass of users who are unlikely to switch to (English language) US sites like Facebook and Twitter.