4 ms·

If the age-in population has a 75% incidence and the age-out population has a 25% incidence it won’t cancel out. The age-in population will be adding a lot mor

If the age-in population has a 75% incidence and the age-out population has a 25% incidence it won’t cancel out. The age-in population will be adding a lot more than the age-out will be subtracting.

read_if_gay_ 6y ago
But if it wasn't canceled out by something then this number would be rising forever, and that something ought to be people between 18 and 30 moving out, and if you suppose that most people planning to move out have postponed their plans due to COVID, then the situation doesn't look that grim.
- alextheparrot 6y ago
  That’s a fair hypothesis, which would result in a different interpretation of what the overall trend means. I was narrowly speaking to the discussion on the cohort age boundary, which is a valid observation from my perspective.
qes 6y ago
Wouldn't you assume the age-in and age-out are quite similar? Why would you lean towards assuming it differs by such an astounding amount over a relatively short time period?
- alextheparrot 6y ago
  The numbers I used are roughly derived (I rounded to the nearest quarter for simplicity of example) from the top-level poster's Pew link [0]. Splitting the 18-29 year old cohort, 18-24 year olds increase from 63 to 71%, while 25-29 year olds increased from 26 to 28%. Pretty much, there seems to be a natural gradient pre-existing, where the age-in group seems to have a much greater natural affinity to be living with their parents even prior to the pandemic. We can all probably generate reasonable hypotheses for that, but that's the root of the mathematical assumptions. [0] Here's a re-link of what I'm referencing: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-of-young-adults-in-the-u-s-live-with-their-parents-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-depression/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-...

read_if_gay_ 6y ago

But if it wasn't canceled out by something then this number would be rising forever, and that something ought to be people between 18 and 30 moving out, and if you suppose that most people planning to move out have postponed their plans due to COVID, then the situation doesn't look that grim.

alextheparrot 6y ago
That’s a fair hypothesis, which would result in a different interpretation of what the overall trend means. I was narrowly speaking to the discussion on the cohort age boundary, which is a valid observation from my perspective.

qes 6y ago

Wouldn't you assume the age-in and age-out are quite similar? Why would you lean towards assuming it differs by such an astounding amount over a relatively short time period?

alextheparrot 6y ago
The numbers I used are roughly derived (I rounded to the nearest quarter for simplicity of example) from the top-level poster's Pew link [0]. Splitting the 18-29 year old cohort, 18-24 year olds increase from 63 to 71%, while 25-29 year olds increased from 26 to 28%. Pretty much, there seems to be a natural gradient pre-existing, where the age-in group seems to have a much greater natural affinity to be living with their parents even prior to the pandemic. We can all probably generate reasonable hypotheses for that, but that's the root of the mathematical assumptions. [0] Here's a re-link of what I'm referencing: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-of-young-adults-in-the-u-s-live-with-their-parents-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-depression/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-...