5 ms·

I'm guessing it's a safety thing? Having a bunch of people in bubble suits would make it really hard to evacuate the plane.

ragnese 6y ago
Wouldn't this be a simple case of measuring the probability of needing to evacuate the plane quickly vs. probability of catching covid-19 and dying? Honestly, right now, for an elderly person, the covid risk is probably higher.
- wizzwizz4 6y ago
  Conditional probability is a bit too advanced for the people making these decisions at the moment. (That's not to say that they're incapable of taking it into account; I'm sure most of them would be able to understand and use the concepts. They just don't.)
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  Isolating at home is a good way to stay safe if vulnerable.
  - OJFord 6y ago
    ..from both eventualities!
- thinkharderdev 6y ago
  Theoretically you could, but in practice I don't know that we can reliably determine either of those probabilities with any accuracy. For instance, COVID risk is highly dependent (even for elderly people) on the presence of comorbidities. Are you going to ask everyone on the flight for their medical history?
  - ragnese 6y ago
    I understand, but surely someone with an actual stats background could do a basic calculation on number of recent plane crashes vs. some estimated probability of N people out of 100 on a plane having COVID * the overall mortality rate, etc.
- alibarber 6y ago
  Yes but I would be frightfully annoyed if my own evacuation from a burning plane was impeded by someone’s unproven attempts at trying to lower their COVID risk.
- tedunangst 6y ago
  And what is the marginal benefit of going full pod vs everyone simply wearing a mask?
  - 9HZZRfNlpR 6y ago
    Mask is marginal as well with very weak scientific evidence yet people wear it and even have to.
OJFord 6y ago
Isn't it a slippery slope though? Obesity and wheelchairs and people on the way to Magaluf who've spent the morning in the airport Wetherspoons also make it harder to evacuate.
- OJFord 6y ago
  (This is HN, so I fully expect an airport buff to point out that 'spoons is a British chain, and no British airport that flies to Magaluf has a Wetherspoons, except for one month in 2014 when a code change coincided with the grand opening of the Lands End airport Wetherspoons, or something - in fact I encourage it.)
  - atlasunshrugged 6y ago
    I love that all the names of these places sound to me (as an American) like they could be mythical places out of Game of Thrones or something. Magaluf and Wetherspoons at Lands End? Amazing
    - OJFord 6y ago
      Ha, well I'm sorry if it's a partial disappointment, but Magaluf is a Spanish holiday destination for, stereotypically, drunk-before-they-get-there British yobs; and Wetherspoon's (aka 'spoons') is a large (down-market) pub chain (proprietor J D Wetherspoon). Land's End is pretty GoT-y though - that's the most Westerly place in England (possibly GB? Probably a Scottish island is further West.) though I'm not sure if the meaning was ever literal, or if it was named after knowing that there did in fact lie other lands out there.

ragnese 6y ago

Wouldn't this be a simple case of measuring the probability of needing to evacuate the plane quickly vs. probability of catching covid-19 and dying? Honestly, right now, for an elderly person, the covid risk is probably higher.

wizzwizz4 6y ago
Conditional probability is a bit too advanced for the people making these decisions at the moment. (That's not to say that they're incapable of taking it into account; I'm sure most of them would be able to understand and use the concepts. They just don't.)
ketamine__ 6y ago
Isolating at home is a good way to stay safe if vulnerable.
- OJFord 6y ago
  ..from both eventualities!
thinkharderdev 6y ago
Theoretically you could, but in practice I don't know that we can reliably determine either of those probabilities with any accuracy. For instance, COVID risk is highly dependent (even for elderly people) on the presence of comorbidities. Are you going to ask everyone on the flight for their medical history?
- ragnese 6y ago
  I understand, but surely someone with an actual stats background could do a basic calculation on number of recent plane crashes vs. some estimated probability of N people out of 100 on a plane having COVID * the overall mortality rate, etc.
alibarber 6y ago
Yes but I would be frightfully annoyed if my own evacuation from a burning plane was impeded by someone’s unproven attempts at trying to lower their COVID risk.
tedunangst 6y ago
And what is the marginal benefit of going full pod vs everyone simply wearing a mask?
- 9HZZRfNlpR 6y ago
  Mask is marginal as well with very weak scientific evidence yet people wear it and even have to.

OJFord 6y ago

Isn't it a slippery slope though? Obesity and wheelchairs and people on the way to Magaluf who've spent the morning in the airport Wetherspoons also make it harder to evacuate.

OJFord 6y ago
(This is HN, so I fully expect an airport buff to point out that 'spoons is a British chain, and no British airport that flies to Magaluf has a Wetherspoons, except for one month in 2014 when a code change coincided with the grand opening of the Lands End airport Wetherspoons, or something - in fact I encourage it.)
- atlasunshrugged 6y ago
  I love that all the names of these places sound to me (as an American) like they could be mythical places out of Game of Thrones or something. Magaluf and Wetherspoons at Lands End? Amazing
  - OJFord 6y ago
    Ha, well I'm sorry if it's a partial disappointment, but Magaluf is a Spanish holiday destination for, stereotypically, drunk-before-they-get-there British yobs; and Wetherspoon's (aka 'spoons') is a large (down-market) pub chain (proprietor J D Wetherspoon). Land's End is pretty GoT-y though - that's the most Westerly place in England (possibly GB? Probably a Scottish island is further West.) though I'm not sure if the meaning was ever literal, or if it was named after knowing that there did in fact lie other lands out there.